I'd definitely go with the approach of Roth conversion ladder, rather than 72t, which is locking you in for years till you turn 59.5 years old. Life is full of surprises, you simply can't plan for so many years ahead.
You have a long retirement to fund. It's going to be tough. Your 2% inflation estimation might be on the optimistic side. I think in your long retirement, it's almost inevitable to see a few periods of runaway inflation. Sequence-of-return risk is another risk you need to be aware. It's never going to be a smooth 5% return annually. Run a few calculations/simulations based on history/Monte Carlo and you will see the likelihood of your fund being robust to the market fluctuations. If the first 5 or 10 years your net worth is shrinking, you better be prepared to go back to work.
Anyone who has considered early retirement knows, 30 times annual expenses is likely good enough. Key point here is annual expenses, making a blanket statement of 10M is idiotic - everyone's consumption pattern is different.
【 在 helpme (名虚胖字满肥) 的大作中提到: 】 the sad truth is if 4百万美刀 is only good for a frugal early retirement. if you want a comfortable one, you need about 10 million dollars.
【 在 ww21 (ww21) 的大作中提到: 】 每个人对舒适的要求不同,有些人需要的少,就可以早退休做自己想做的事情。你如果 需要很多钱才能过得舒适,就没有自由早退休。 Anyone who has considered early retirement knows, 30 times annual expenses is likely good enough. Key point here is annual expenses, making a blanket statement of 10M is idiotic - everyone's consumption pattern is different.: if 你每年expense按房贷加衣食住行算的吧?你这是在搞笑,不工作了医保从哪里出,看 病的deductible高的不得了,还不是得你自己掏腰包(别告诉我你想走medicaid, 你没戏了)。你那30年的expenses够看几次病的?还有孩子将来的学杂费生活费课外辅导班费和大学tuition,你又需要几年来补? 楼主姐姐居然想靠老人的50万来填孩子的大学学杂费和生活费,甚至还想cover开牙医 诊所的钱。。。
你自己到exchange做个估价就知道了,ACA has both premium subsidy and cost sharing subsidy, details vary by state。 I've done projects on insurance, some might have 20% co-pay, but all have oop max these days.
【 在 jiazi (Light be with you.) 的大作中提到: 】 老中真的好NB 开口就是一千万 看了看统计局的数据 尽管是根据2013年算的 http://www.shnugi.com/networth-percentile-calculator/?min_age=18&max_age=100&networth=10000000 1千万净资产概念是 Net Worth Summary Statistics for Households Aged 18 to 100 Net Worth Percentile Rank : A net worth of $10,000,000.00 for ages 18 to 100 ranks at the 99.29% 废话,你想40来岁提前退休在家歇着,考虑通胀,自己的医保和养老,孩子上学甚至父母赡养。1000万的钱打理好了每年也就给你生个二十万,一大家子想过舒服日子一点不多。 像那个什么ww21说的那种半乞丐式的生活,我不觉得那能叫退休。
【 在 yalinger (已经告别孤独) 的大作中提到: 】 没有房贷,3.5W一年已经可以过不错的中产生活了。的确是每个人有自己喜欢的生活方 式,我支持楼主! 其实很多时候我们这么在乎钱,还是我们不够自信的表现,尤其是我 same here。 LZ is good to go for retirement life. LZ can always start working again when feel necessary.
lz的计划说实话的确看起来有些吃紧,大家的建议主要是觉得你的估算并不是基于worst case scenario,比如你的50万刀养老金投资是否能够经历08的危机,可能发生的重大 疾病等等,不知道lz是否应该考虑过一些相对简单和自由的赚钱渠道来补充,比如出租现有住房的一间做AirBnB短租或者偶尔做Uber司机等~
I don't think retiring at this age is a good choice, unless you already have a plan to do something else, but then you are not really "retiring" . If you feel financially you can retire, then you can take a job that you really like and don't need to worry about things like salary, title, politics. Keep working is good for health.
【 在 jiazi (Light be with you.) 的大作中提到: 】 老中真的好NB 开口就是一千万 看了看统计局的数据 尽管是根据2013年算的 http://www.shnugi.com/networth-percentile-calculator/?min_age=18&max_age=100&networth=10000000 1千万净资产概念是 Net Worth Summary Statistics for Households Aged 18 to 100 Net Worth Percentile Rank : A net worth of $10,000,000.00 for ages 18 to 100 ranks at the 99.29%
(c) The 5-taxable-year period described in this A-5 for purposes of determining whether section 72(t) applies to a distribution allocable to a conversion contribution is separately determined for each conversion contribution, and need not be the same as the 5-taxable-year period used for purposes of determining whether a distribution is a qualified distribution under A-1(b) of this section. For example, if a calendar-year taxpayer who received a distribution from a traditional IRA on December 31, 1998, makes a conversion contribution by contributing the distributed amount to a Roth IRA on February 25, 1999 in a qualifying rollover contribution and makes a regular contribution for 1998 on the same date, the 5-taxable-year period for purposes of this A-5 begins on January 1, 1999, while the 5-taxable-year period for purposes of A-1(b) of this section begins on January 1, 1998.
根据官网上 PIA formula For an individual who first becomes eligible for old-age insurance benefits or disability insurance benefits in 2016, or who dies in 2016 before becoming eligible for benefits, his/her PIA will be the sum of: (a) 90 percent of the first $856 of his/her average indexed monthly earnings, plus (b) 32 percent of his/her average indexed monthly earnings over $856 and through $5,157, plus (c) 15 percent of his/her average indexed monthly earnings over $5,157.
【 在 majiaknight (The Dark Knight of Majia) 的大作中提到: 】 Here is a good article about SS and Bendpoints: https://thefinancebuff.com/early-retirement-social-security-benefits.html
I do not mind that much about higher tax, as long as tax ROI is good. That is, if higher tax are used on government services that I likely will use, such as road and bridge, hospital, school system, etc. If, OTOH, higher tax are used to provide better safety net which I likely will never use, then the answer is no from me.
【 在 SOFC (SOFC) 的大作中提到: 】 I do not mind that much about higher tax, as long as tax ROI is good. That is, if higher tax are used on government services that I likely will use, : such as road and bridge, hospital, school system, etc. If, OTOH, higher tax are used to provide better safety net which I likely will never use, then : the answer is no from me.
,花到90岁没问题。所以不想再工作了,准备退休算了。
现在的问题是我们有大约50W的401k和IRA,想要取出来。
有几种方案,
一种就是今后几年没有收入的年份,把401k和IRA迅速转成roth IRA,比如每年17W,三年转完。然后过5年后,取出来转换的部分,盈利等到60岁以后取出来。
第二种,就是每年转一点,比如一年转4-5W.5年后,开始取,每年取4-5W.
第三种,就是72t,现在开始15年,定好计划,每年4W,不能多也不能少(否则IRS罚钱
),但是钱立刻能用,不用等5年。
是否还有其他方案?那种方案最优?考虑到交税,老年时候的福利以及两个小孩十年后大学学费的问题。
preschool的开销。
父母有几套房子,估计现在可能值300W美刀吧。他们另有存款,未知数目,但是说给两个小孩总共各50W美刀。
等我们老了,孩子大了,肯定房子卖了或者用reverse mortgage。反正小孩子不缺我们这点钱,有grandparents呢。
转每年就有收入了,不是没收入。
这是一个长期的计划。恳请知道的人提些建议。
itemized deduction),剩下的,你税率低,也交不了多少。对了,你娃在学校没准还
能吃上free lunch,hoho...
在Bogleheads Forum里面很多人提到的FIRECalc不知道你用了没有:
http://www.firecalc.com/
期待lz做好决定后,能够分享一下经验~
医保用obamacare或者medicaid。
实际通胀是远高于官方统计出来的通胀的。因为高技术的电子、通信产品进步很快
iphone2比iphone1快一倍,而价钱不变,这方面的通胀率就是-50%,与平时生活中的
食品、住房、服务等的5%的通胀率一综合,就变成2%通胀了。
所以通胀率要按高一些的算。
发,洗衣服,衣服还降了不少,更不要说电子产品了。只是地税和HOA fee倒是每年涨。
72t, which is locking you in for years till you turn 59.5 years old. Life is full of surprises, you simply can't plan for so many years ahead.
You have a long retirement to fund. It's going to be tough. Your 2%
inflation estimation might be on the optimistic side. I think in your long
retirement, it's almost inevitable to see a few periods of runaway inflation. Sequence-of-return risk is another risk you need to be aware. It's never
going to be a smooth 5% return annually. Run a few calculations/simulations based on history/Monte Carlo and you will see the likelihood of your fund
being robust to the market fluctuations. If the first 5 or 10 years your net worth is shrinking, you better be prepared to go back to work.
这里有roth讨论,可以看一下。
Conversion好像会算收入,影响ACA subsidy/medicaid eligibility.
我们那里gym这几年从$15涨到了$23,去同一家按重量自己拿东西吃的food court,
几年前我和我老婆两人$20以下吃一顿还有剩的,现在两人至少$30才能吃饱。
生活艰难,只有08年经济危机时才不涨价,能够喘口气。
大想做牙医,以后开诊所的费用),他们会资助,遗产也留给他们。但是我们是拿不到一分钱的。但是这也给我们提前退休免去了后顾之忧。
的想法。父母们可能想断了我们的念想
,免得我们一天到晚想着啃老吧。不过现在是个机会,工作没了,房子付清了。想想好像没啥后顾之忧了,先玩个几年也不错啊。父母是肯定不支持的,除非是做生意想赚钱的用途。他们是奋斗的一代,在他们的词典里没有坐吃山空这个词。我想很多华人都有这个想法,用钱生钱是可以得,光花不赚是万万不能的。所以呢父母可以资助第二代读书,做生意,直接给他们享受生活,估计父母们也不愿意的。我们不想读书,也不想做生意,所以就没有份了。既然能够自力更生,我们以我们自己的生活方式活着也不错。
我现在40出头, 2个人, 每年的医保就1万, 还是比较高的deductible.
虽然我也觉得楼主的经济帐比较吃紧(不觉得计划退休时能算上老人的钱),但各人有各人的生活方式,每人对$的需求不一样,这个没法用统一标准衡量吧。就像有人说老
中需要2百万美刀退休后才够用,那夫妻俩是不是就要4百万美刀了。照这标准,绝大多数老美这辈子都别退休了。
part time就行 最好有benefit. 算半退休。比较保险。
http://rootofgood.com/roth-ira-conversion-ladder-early-retirement/
Anyone who has considered early retirement knows, 30 times annual expenses
is likely good enough. Key point here is annual expenses, making a blanket statement of 10M is idiotic - everyone's consumption pattern is different.
销还是比美国低很多 还可以去父母家蹭饭。一百多万美元可能够用了。
休的,收入控制在400%贫困线以下,保费不贵。其中一个收入两万多,每个月保费就几十块,0 deductible,比工作的人便宜多了。
所以不要想当然,他退休了又没什么收入,小孩念大学给need-based scholarship 的
好学校很多。
不过开口一千万的一般都是基本事实(譬如医保)都搞不清楚的。
sharing subsidy, details vary by state。
I've done projects on insurance, some might have 20% co-pay, but all have
oop max these days.
尽管过去成绩不能代表未来 但是过去150年经历了世界大战 经济危机 那么多大事情,标普的长期RETURN (25-30年年平均)还是蛮线性的 考虑上通胀 都能有有7%
具体看这里https://www.reddit.com/r/personalfinance/comments/4rcqbu/ive_simulated_and_
plotted_the_entire_sp_since/
2个娃都快半M了
看了看统计局的数据 尽管是根据2013年算的http://www.shnugi.com/networth-percentile-calculator/?min_age=18&max_age=100&networth=10000000
1千万净资产概念是
Net Worth Summary Statistics for Households Aged 18 to 100
Net Worth Percentile Rank : A net worth of $10,000,000.00 for ages 18 to 100 ranks at the 99.29%
小日本高考都会考左传 自己连个24史都没看全
小时候想读被爸妈凶不务正业,大了也没啥时间看
我要有LZ那样的爸妈 也退休
有了1000W还能想明天指不定人类就成了从前的恐龙呢
ENJOY LIFE最重要
最幸福的人应该是工作挣大钱又乐在其中的
如果没有比工作更令人愉快的事情了,那就一直工作。
如果还有其他事情更有趣更想做,就不要浪费时间去挣很可能不需要的钱。
一生也不是那么长。
不容易,要养孩子更难
花完40万美元,然后正好开始用ira和401k,大致也是40万花7年,领养老金。
未必去昂贵私校,双职工的娃也未必不能拿到不基于收入的奖学金。
谢谢ww21,jiazi提供的一些信息。
今天发现因为有child tax credit,每年可以转roth ira的钱比想象的要多。可以转5W不用交联邦税。所以我会倾向于一年一年转。另外还不知道是ACA好,还是medicaid好。我们经常用的医生都收medicaid。
如果我理解正确的话,因为是转roth ira,所以我可以控制转多少钱,而选择使用ACA
还是medicaid。如果少转点,收入低于贫困线,就可以用medicaid,多一点就用ACA。
另外转多少,还会影响ACA的premium和deductible。如果理解错误,请指正。
所以每年转多少钱,必须经过仔细计算才能达到最大优化。既有钱花,也不会影响福利。看了几个英文论坛的帖子,最后的福利差别可能会上万美刀一年。
求科普
部分不能立刻取,必须等5年。这个5年是怎么定义的,我还没搞清楚。
比如我10/1/2016转了3W。那么我是可以10/1/2021可以取呢,还是1/1/2022可以取,还是1/1/2021可以取?
看不到有多丰厚的,如果可以把收入搞低了什么福利都来了,好好研究一下。
8年啊~~~~ 人一辈子多少个8年
我现在都觉得过去这30年浪费了太多时间
最不幸的是为了生活所迫 现在还要继续浪费下去
放在UC BERKELEY不读DROP OUT
DROP OUT去干像大门那样挣大钱事情也就罢了,他去FREE SOLO
没钱爬怎么办 住车里 省房租https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alex_Honnold
再来个华裔的https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jimmy_Chin
采访里说过 他爸妈都是传统中国家长,对他这种行为极其‘不齿’
你可以说一个上了national geographic门面
一个拍了MERU之后知名度暴涨 都申请EB1A秒秒钟拿下的大牛
在我眼里他们是放弃传统观念束缚 去追求自己真正想做的事情 从20岁就开始ENJOY
LIFE了
月1日开始,加5年就是2020年1月1日可以取出。所以可以实际只等3年8个月。
我的计划就是50W+80w房子+SS+各种福利(ACA,medicaid,低收入大学学费减免等等)到90岁。现在的生活开销是3.5W一年。是否可行。你说需要15W一年,所以不可行,等
于白说。你说拿不到福利,那么请说具体为什么,我再仔细考虑我的计划。
2 即使LZ啃老 啃的也不是你我的老
3 ALEX最穷困潦倒的时候 父母接济过。 Jimmy的大学学费 父母出的 毕业之后坑蒙拐
骗说休息一年 外加姐姐在背后强力支持 才走上这条路不回头
4 我想对绝大多数父母,应该宁可子女啃老 也不要像ALEX那么FREE SOLO. 正常人HIKE个HALF DOME都半条命没了,他不带任何保护器具,也没有任何工具,垂直爬上去。
真的 去听听ALEX的采访,他为啥爬。其实大多数人生命当中都或多或少有那样的心,
只是大多数人担心这个纠结那个,于是一辈子就过去了。
其实很多时候我们这么在乎钱,还是我们不够自信的表现,尤其是我
你80万是自住房,这个不够liquid.
我真心不理解为什么有人总拿啃老说事,一家人的钱合理分配,资源整合并共享,有什么不对的?人家父母即使现在就给楼主300万美元,剩下的也远比大部分父母的总资产
多,楼主的命就是比大部分人好,提前过自己想过的生活有什么不对?
没算过一年需要花多少钱,抛开房贷/车贷/child care之类的费用,也许并不比楼主多多少,不过我承认自己安全感比楼主差,没勇气退休,呵呵。45退休的话,差不多要20年没退休金收入,要靠自己的$过日子,有点怕坐吃山空。20年不交FICA,退休金是不
是也会少很多?如果有几个投资房,每月还有租金收入的话,会安心很多。
lz的计划说实话的确看起来有些吃紧,大家的建议主要是觉得你的估算并不是基于worst case scenario,比如你的50万刀养老金投资是否能够经历08的危机,可能发生的重大
疾病等等,不知道lz是否应该考虑过一些相对简单和自由的赚钱渠道来补充,比如出租现有住房的一间做AirBnB短租或者偶尔做Uber司机等~
我觉得这是个误区 因为
1 先看SS/FICA是干嘛的,给那批不知道省钱的鬼老强制省钱养老的。中国人不需要这
玩意也知道自己要节余养老
2 再看SS/FICA怎么WORK,说到底还是劫富济贫。之前我用SS网站模拟了下,不算通胀不算加工资,10W的工资退休时候每个月拿2500, 5W的工资退休的时候拿1800.这种非线
性关系注定是拿了高收入的钱去补贴低收入
3 华人,特别在这里讨论退休的,怎么的也属于相对高收入了。这也就注定是处于被劫富的状态
所以 SS/FICA更应该理解为 交了越少,亏了越少。而不是交了越多,拿了越多
所谓bend point,就是讲你的第二点.
需不需要SS是一回事,这里只是说如果工龄非常短,SS会少。
If you feel financially you can retire, then you can take a job that you
really like and don't need to worry about things like salary, title,
politics. Keep working is good for health.
https://www.law.cornell.edu/cfr/text/26/1.408A-6
(c) The 5-taxable-year period described in this A-5 for purposes of
determining whether section 72(t) applies to a distribution allocable to a
conversion contribution is separately determined for each conversion
contribution, and need not be the same as the 5-taxable-year period used for purposes of determining whether a distribution is a qualified distribution under A-1(b) of this section. For example, if a calendar-year taxpayer who
received a distribution from a traditional IRA on December 31, 1998, makes a conversion contribution by contributing the distributed amount to a Roth
IRA on February 25, 1999 in a qualifying rollover contribution and makes a
regular contribution for 1998 on the same date, the 5-taxable-year period
for purposes of this A-5 begins on January 1, 1999, while the 5-taxable-year period for purposes of A-1(b) of this section begins on January 1, 1998.
根据官网上
PIA formula
For an individual who first becomes eligible for old-age insurance benefits or disability insurance benefits in 2016, or who dies in 2016 before
becoming eligible for benefits, his/her PIA will be the sum of:
(a) 90 percent of the first $856 of his/her average indexed monthly earnings, plus
(b) 32 percent of his/her average indexed monthly earnings over $856 and
through $5,157, plus
(c) 15 percent of his/her average indexed monthly earnings over $5,157.
具体来说 10W一年交了20年,然后退休,平均下来每年 10W*20/35=6W左右,差不多刚
好到第二个拐点
再往后多挣1W块,能拿到的SS就减半了
前几天在和左棍们扯淡 人家说要高福利 人人有保障
跟我扯看英国 多好
生个孩子 法律规定娘52周带薪假,爹也有2州
生完孩子 每个礼拜政府发20镑给父母
读大学包括牛剑 2009年前基本不要钱,09年之后政府吃不消‘提高’到9000镑封顶,
全国学生大罢课
失业的政府给每个礼拜70镑
医疗全部免费,连牙医和堕胎都全免费
65岁以后STATE PENSION,人人有份,大家都一样 每礼拜130镑
幸亏我英国待过 也给了几个数据问左棍们这种低收入高税收的国家你愿意待?
4W年收入以上 40%所得税
额外雇主和工人从1W年收入以上部分各交12%医疗保险
一个超市收银的年收入15K
一个PHD毕业去 保洁或者R&R起薪30K,去BP, SHELL石油公司高点 35-40K
一个牛津或者剑桥的ASSISTANT PROF 工资35-40K
普通DOCTOR 65K, SURGEON 高点也就是90K左右
左棍们完了来了句 那就要美国的高收入,英国的高福利
我满头大汗无言以对。。。。。
按照COVERED SS算 才十七年就到第二个拐点了
转roth是要交税,但是4口之家没有收入,转5W没有联邦税。
is, if higher tax are used on government services that I likely will use,
such as road and bridge, hospital, school system, etc. If, OTOH, higher tax are used to provide better safety net which I likely will never use, then
the answer is no from me.
军费看着挺多 也就是六分之一
我从来觉得SS就是最大的旁氏