劈柴最近在公司大会上透漏的意思已经很明显了，以后的投资不会在增加人手上了，而是用AI提高效率。潜台词就是用AI慢慢取代人工。 互联网大厂以前最大OPEX成本都是码工人工成本，这就是典型的第三产业服务产业的特征，这也是码工过去十五年黄金时代可以随着业务不停扩张而薪资水涨船高的重要原因。而LLM时代，起码是这几年，互联网公司主导稀缺资源已经是GPU+供电容量(GW级别)，财报的重头是CAPEX（MSFT CAPEX 比例33%，Meta 甚至已经快到40%了），曾经轻资产的软件公司已经开始向重资产(重金打造数据中心)，重消耗(数据中心的GPU三四年就要升级)转变了。 互联网公司持续把资源从人工转到硬件购买上，挤压人员的成本，削减福利+不停裁员换血是大趋势，不要假装看不见房间里的大象。 That was the message at an all-hands meeting last week, featuring CEO Sundar Pichai and Brian Saluzzo, who runs the teams building the technical foundation for Google’s flagship products. “Anytime you go through a period of extraordinary investment, you respond by adding a lot of headcount, right?” Pichai said, according to audio obtained by CNBC. “But in this AI moment, I think we have to accomplish more by taking advantage of this transition to drive higher productivity.” In its earnings report last week, Alphabet said it plans to spend $85 billion on capital expenditures in 2025, up from the $75 billion it was targeting earlier in the year. It’s a theme that’s resonating across technology, where internet giants are racing to build costly data centers to run big AI models and workloads while simultaneously cutting expenses elsewhere. “We are competing with other companies in the world,” Pichai said at the meeting. “There will be companies which will become more efficient through this moment in terms of employee productivity, which is why I think it’s important to focus on that.” 不幸的是，码工应该就是那个elsewhere.
python出现之后，C++程序员是变少了，但我觉得程序员总数并没有变少，反而变多了。
我有个同事也这么说，我觉得有点道理。如果门槛变低，说不定能找到更好的应用，需求还真说不定的是变多。我感觉LLM现阶段就能写一些大路货，真的复杂的逻辑就完蛋
主要是SWE 费用太高，所以优化SWE ROI是最高的。可以预料 取代程序员一定是个大公司的主要目标
有同感。目前的问题是prompt 或者人类语言不能够精确表达一些复杂逻辑。就像数学证明要引入符号，公式，没法用日常语言去完成证明。
不好说，除非AGI真出来了，可以实现从设计到实现到最终上线一把抓，否则只要人需要和AI交互，就会有编程要求，人力成本就会居高不下。 就像python程序员，以前都觉得很便宜，现在工资也很高，因为python能干的事越来越多，代码也越来越复杂。
互联网大厂以前最大OPEX成本都是码工人工成本，这就是典型的第三产业服务产业的特征，这也是码工过去十五年黄金时代可以随着业务不停扩张而薪资水涨船高的重要原因。而LLM时代，起码是这几年，互联网公司主导稀缺资源已经是GPU+供电容量(GW级别)，财报的重头是CAPEX（MSFT CAPEX 比例33%，Meta 甚至已经快到40%了），曾经轻资产的软件公司已经开始向重资产(重金打造数据中心)，重消耗(数据中心的GPU三四年就要升级)转变了。
互联网公司持续把资源从人工转到硬件购买上，挤压人员的成本，削减福利+不停裁员换血是大趋势，不要假装看不见房间里的大象。
That was the message at an all-hands meeting last week, featuring CEO Sundar Pichai and Brian Saluzzo, who runs the teams building the technical foundation for Google’s flagship products.
“Anytime you go through a period of extraordinary investment, you respond by adding a lot of headcount, right?” Pichai said, according to audio obtained by CNBC. “But in this AI moment, I think we have to accomplish more by taking advantage of this transition to drive higher productivity.” In its earnings report last week, Alphabet said it plans to spend $85 billion on capital expenditures in 2025, up from the $75 billion it was targeting earlier in the year. It’s a theme that’s resonating across technology, where internet giants are racing to build costly data centers to run big AI models and workloads while simultaneously cutting expenses elsewhere.
“We are competing with other companies in the world,” Pichai said at the meeting. “There will be companies which will become more efficient through this moment in terms of employee productivity, which is why I think it’s important to focus on that.”
不幸的是，码工应该就是那个elsewhere.