投资肯定要投，现在的理论是 3 bucket strategy. The 3-Bucket Retirement Strategy is a widely recognized and utilized method for managing retirement savings and income. This approach divides retirement funds into three distinct "buckets," each serving a specific purpose based on when the money will be needed. Here's how the 3-Bucket Strategy typically works: Bucket 1: Short-term needs (0-3 years): This bucket is for immediate expenses and emergencies, containing funds needed within the next few years. It's designed to be easily accessible and minimize risk. Bucket 2: Intermediate needs (3-10 years): This bucket is for expenses that are several years away, such as a large purchase, travel, or covering expenses if Bucket 1 runs low. It can include assets with slightly higher potential for growth than Bucket 1, but still relatively conservative. Bucket 3: Long-term needs (10+ years): This bucket focuses on long-term growth and funding longevity, including potential expenses much further into retirement. It may include growth-oriented assets like stocks and mutual funds.
gabegabe 发表于 2025-07-14 16:38 投资肯定要投，现在的理论是 3 bucket strategy. The 3-Bucket Retirement Strategy is a widely recognized and utilized method for managing retirement savings and income. This approach divides retirement funds into three distinct "buckets," each serving a specific purpose based on when the money will be needed. Here's how the 3-Bucket Strategy typically works: Bucket 1: Short-term needs (0-3 years): This bucket is for immediate expenses and emergencies, containing funds needed within the next few years. It's designed to be easily accessible and minimize risk. Bucket 2: Intermediate needs (3-10 years): This bucket is for expenses that are several years away, such as a large purchase, travel, or covering expenses if Bucket 1 runs low. It can include assets with slightly higher potential for growth than Bucket 1, but still relatively conservative. Bucket 3: Long-term needs (10+ years): This bucket focuses on long-term growth and funding longevity, including potential expenses much further into retirement. It may include growth-oriented assets like stocks and mutual funds.
Here are some suitable investment options for bucket 2: Longer-maturity bonds (2-10 year): These bonds offer a balance between interest rate risk and potential returns, providing a stable income stream. Preferred stocks: These hybrid securities offer features of both bonds and stocks, typically providing fixed dividend payments and potential for moderate growth. Income funds: These funds focus on generating regular income through investments in bonds, dividend stocks, and other income-producing assets. REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts): REITs allow investors to indirectly invest in real estate, potentially offering both income (from rental properties) and long-term capital appreciation. Balanced or Moderate-allocation funds: These funds offer a diversified approach, blending equities for potential growth and fixed-income securities for stability. Dividend-paying equities: High-quality companies that consistently pay dividends can provide a steady income stream and potential for stock price appreciation. Laddered CD portfolio: This strategy involves purchasing Certificates of Deposit (CDs) with staggered maturity dates, providing liquidity while potentially benefiting from rising interest rates.
确实是，所以那段时间有的退休人士又回来工作了
如果坚持定投，在2000-2010年期间还坚持持续买进，那远远用不了十年就出水了。定投也要放到人生的尺度上来看，不是说现在手里有一笔钱，非要分多少次慢慢投。定投的意思是，未来的工资，未来的收入还没到手，只能等未来工资到手后再投，所以是定投。
再有自08年开始，美联储学会了量化宽松，全球政府都在印钱，大家不得不投资。
只要美国的国运不衰，美股大盘长期还是会持续上涨。一个持续上涨的股市，自然是新高之后还有新高。
至于信不信美国国运，还是真的相信所谓东升西降，美帝要玩，那就是最基本的认知问题了。尊重他人命运，放弃助人情结。
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没办法，人的记忆力都很短的。过去十几年大盘涨得太多了，所有谈风险的人都被市场抛弃了。市场只看对错，大家都是活在当下。其实别上杠杆，只要输得起就行。
如果是定投， 慢慢存退休了慢慢花，失去的十年也并不可怕。最怕的是美国不行了。
我感觉是手上留有余粮，随时可以补仓问题就不大。
这么好的帖子没有人气
可是现在Fed 反其道而行之，开始紧缩了
问题是如果你在这十年需要退休就不一样了。华人网这里大部分人都在这个尴尬年龄段
没办法紧缩，现在这局势，只会放水，老百姓买单。
问题是你的钱放哪里呢？
你可能没关注新闻。Powell 这届的思路就是紧缩 + 升息。 现在还不肯降息。很难讲股市会不会被Fed 搞砸
快退休的人肯定不会100%股市啊，熬过跌的那几年再卖股票不就行了
你不知道他要下台了吗？ 你有地方投资就别买大盘好了。
其实退了休后还有几十年，钱还是要放投资的，何况还没退。
我04年开始工作，401k一直放满。实际上是花了很长时间才回本。前十年的return跟后十年的真的是差距很大。
投资肯定要投，现在的理论是 3 bucket strategy. The 3-Bucket Retirement Strategy is a widely recognized and utilized method for managing retirement savings and income. This approach divides retirement funds into three distinct "buckets," each serving a specific purpose based on when the money will be needed. Here's how the 3-Bucket Strategy typically works: Bucket 1: Short-term needs (0-3 years): This bucket is for immediate expenses and emergencies, containing funds needed within the next few years. It's designed to be easily accessible and minimize risk. Bucket 2: Intermediate needs (3-10 years): This bucket is for expenses that are several years away, such as a large purchase, travel, or covering expenses if Bucket 1 runs low. It can include assets with slightly higher potential for growth than Bucket 1, but still relatively conservative. Bucket 3: Long-term needs (10+ years): This bucket focuses on long-term growth and funding longevity, including potential expenses much further into retirement. It may include growth-oriented assets like stocks and mutual funds.
也对
Bucket 2买什么？
我自己的投资轨迹也是这样的， 现在也是enough
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Here are some suitable investment options for bucket 2: Longer-maturity bonds (2-10 year): These bonds offer a balance between interest rate risk and potential returns, providing a stable income stream. Preferred stocks: These hybrid securities offer features of both bonds and stocks, typically providing fixed dividend payments and potential for moderate growth. Income funds: These funds focus on generating regular income through investments in bonds, dividend stocks, and other income-producing assets. REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts): REITs allow investors to indirectly invest in real estate, potentially offering both income (from rental properties) and long-term capital appreciation. Balanced or Moderate-allocation funds: These funds offer a diversified approach, blending equities for potential growth and fixed-income securities for stability. Dividend-paying equities: High-quality companies that consistently pay dividends can provide a steady income stream and potential for stock price appreciation. Laddered CD portfolio: This strategy involves purchasing Certificates of Deposit (CDs) with staggered maturity dates, providing liquidity while potentially benefiting from rising interest rates.
所以手上有一定比例的现金还是很重要的。
那买啥你觉得更稳妥呢？买个股，有可能本也没有了。继续买七大，有可能可以，
买十年期美国国债呀
10% money market， 20%-30%十年期美国国债，剩下60%买大盘，再加上一个投资房，普通人就够了。根本不用什么理财专家。
喜欢炒股就少买点大盘，拿出20%的钱玩玩试试手气，就当小赌怡情。赚钱了也别飘觉得自己股神，输钱了也不至于日子过不下去。
买长期国债才是大坑。整个22年还有今年4月，都是股债双杀，长期国债没有起到一点点的对冲股市风险的作用。要避险或者对冲，买短期国债T-bills或者短期国债ETF像SGOV或者VBIL。
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https://www.youtube.com/embed/Blvoc33bxNU 另外，Money market也不如短期国债。
是的，这是把2008金融危机的大坑算进去了，2008跌了50%，但是后面5-6年就涨回去了，然后就是科技股疯涨
所以很多人还是拿着老的投资书在做，根本跟实际脱节
顶这个
长期国债提供稳定的5%cash flow呀。股债双杀毕竟是短期的，其实债跌的也不多也就5%。国债对冲经济危机Fed大降息的风险呀。
网上查查数据，长期国债ETF比如TLT在2022年一年跌去了31.24%，跌幅都超过美国大盘，风险一点都不比股市小。
每年无风险5%现金流的前提是：把长期国债一直持有到期，中途不能提前卖出。一旦提前卖出，就有可能遇到本金跌去20%的可能。
而你一旦决定真的持有到期，中途无论如何都不卖出，那就是自己甘愿牺牲了流动性。而流动性是有溢价的，在牺牲了流动性的前提下，一年5%的回报是不够的。
我只能说，至少在能理解我上面贴的视频里的关于长期国债的内容以前，请不要投资长期国债！至少要确保自己理解长期国债的yield rate risk以后再决定买不买。
那是利率从2%拉到5%呀，国债利率总不会再涨到8%了吧？国债利率跌回3%就可以赚20%了呀
那请问还有什么别的投资标的适合放到第二个桶子里，就是中长期的投资。最近一直在考虑能否提前退休，就算65开始拿ss，也还有十年需要自己安排资金。并不是说ss就够花，只是俩人ss肯定就饿不着了，万一遇上股市大跌，打点零工或节约下开支总是能过活的。可自主安排资金的十年是实打实要有能拿出来花的钱，所以不能考虑放股市
美国短期国债T-bills，或者短期国债ETF比如SGOV或者VBIL，现在利率也超过4%了，利息还不用交州税。如果利息还想省税的话，那就需要考虑高级的一点的存法了：
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你可能会想，买短期国债，万一今后今年开始降息了呢，利率就没有4%了。答案是降就降呗，这笔钱本来就是用于其他目的，比如你说的维持以后的生活开支。有利息固然好，没有利息这笔钱也要在那。何况，降息了，大概率你股票部分的资产会大幅上涨。
另外，这笔钱你也不需要100%买短期国债，可以略微承受一点点风险。比如我们知道美股大盘VOO平均年化收益10%，但一年最大跌幅很可能到30%！短期国债无风险，但收益只有4.3%。你这笔钱可以90%买国债，10%买VOO，这样混搭的话，平均年化收益就增加到4.3% * 90% + 10% * 10% = 4.87%了，而最大跌幅就限制到 4.3% * 90% - 30% * 10% = 0.87%，依然还是正的。你可以自己调节VOO和短期国债的比例。
非常同意放下助人情结尊重他人命运
多谢回复！虽然之前也会考虑资产配置，但是中长期第二桶金混搭股票和短债确实没想到，感谢层主分享。确实留足充分短期的应急资金，中长期搭配短债和大盘既降低风险，收益又接近长债，并且流通性好。只是大盘最大回撤会有57%左右，不知道这里为什么用30%。
非常同意放下助人情结尊重他人命运+N