回复 1楼 千渔千寻 的帖子 一个没人认识的帖子就作为你的证据了？NYT刚发了一篇文章反驳了这个说法，以Mayo Clinic为例： “People should stop training radiologists now,” Geoffrey Hinton said nine years ago, adding that it was “just completely obvious” that within five years A.I. would outperform humans in that field. At the Mayo Clinic, A.I. tools have been researched, developed and tailored to fit the work routines of busy doctors. The staff has grown 55 percent since Dr. Hinton’s forecast of doom, to more than 400 radiologists. (at the same time)..the radiology department has an A.I. team of 40 people including A.I. scientists, radiology researchers, data analysts and software engineers. They have developed a series of A.I. tools, from tissue analyzers to disease predictors. Dr. Halamka, president of Mayo Clinic Platform and an A.I. optimist, believes the technology will transform medicine. “Five years from now, it will be malpractice not to use A.I.,” he said. “But it will be humans and A.I. working together.” Dr. Hinton agrees. In retrospect, he believes he spoke too broadly in 2016, he said in an email. He didn’t make clear that he was speaking purely about image analysis, and was wrong on timing but not the direction, he added. In a few years, most medical image interpretation will be done by “a combination of A.I. and a radiologist, and it will make radiologists a whole lot more efficient in addition to improving accuracy,” Dr. Hinton said.
已经比人高了，现在不少医院用Google 这个 May 18, 2023 https://www.artisana.ai/articles/googles-new-medical-ai-passes-medical-exam-and-outperforms-actual-doctors A new study from Google’s research division shows that Med-PaLM 2, their AI language model specifically trained in medical knowledge, scored an astounding 86.5% on a question set styled after the US Medical Licensing Examination (USMLE), well surpassing the typical 60% pass threshold for human examinees. More importantly, a panel of human doctors consistently preferred Med-PaLM 2's answers to those offered by actual physicians, a sign of the massive leaps in progress AI models have made in mere months.
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https://x.com/essen_ai/status/1924587615996539130
仅仅是肺炎而已，AI不能看到的疾病还有很多。。。
这个是真的。主要问题是抓不住重点
负责任的告诉你，绝对没有99%的准确率。只在某些特定条件下可以达到人类医生的水平
以前可能需要10个看片子的医生，现在可能只需要2个了
医生只需要最后用自己的license把把关就行了，顺带还可以和AI学习学习，LOL
那太好了， AI 已经达到三年级医学生的水平了， 那再继续学习5-10年，不知道能否达到您的水平？
外科医生就不怕。
病人敢让AI在没有医生在场的情况下，做眼外科，脑外科手术，估计得再等几十年。
眼外科，脑外科医生才几个人，其他所有人都失业，一只眼瞎了凑合凑合不治了
不需要AI， 二十年前计算机程序看片子 就比人牛多了。 但也没什么用， 医生行业壁垒太严了。 不过现在 AI 这波太猛， 估计是挺不住了。
跟其它行业一样， 只有高级层次的不担心， 初中级的 都挺慌的
确诊分类还是需要穿刺的呀，医疗图像第一轮可以，并不是万能的
但AI不能代替好的医生。为什么呢？因为机器没有人类那不可言喻的直觉和跳跃思维能力。好的医生好多直觉是来自经验，而且不是一板一眼直接follow 的经验，更多是自己加工过后对多信息在全局上的判断，这部分AI还不能做到。而且好的医生对信息是有选择性的，就像上面有人说的。如果信息都重要就会陷入自我混乱矛盾中，因为人体是复杂的，局部是真理放到全身就不是。这部分AI还没有跟上。为什么呢？因为好的医生他们脑子里的知识信息还没有足够多到分享出去，多到让AI学习到。但我觉得这只是因为AI还在初步阶段，就已经让人类很惊艳了。它的学习能力迟早会更上一个台阶的。
总结就是Ai能代替各行各业混吃等死不思进取的人类他们的工作。所以AI 的出现其实会分化人类，出现聪明的更聪明，底层的更底层，这是加速人类进化和分化的工具，终其原因是信息的极速普及化。
以后的年份会机器人手术微创的外科医生会比传统外科医生需求多，再很多年以后，放射外科不错的，很多年以后人可能得病后后放入一个治疗舱，AÌ扫描诊断定位，AI辅助下消融之类了，也不需要开刀，出血等…. 不过这种事都会很久很久以后的。 看看伽玛刀出来多久了，质子刀又出来多久了，Histotripsy 在某些医院开用了。 总之，老早出来的东西，用起来不知道要多少年。很多年后就是病人也喜欢无创、不开腹之类治疗了。年轻医生也爱选新科技了。医院才会买起来。新科技医院才会建立起来。早着呢……
就是这个趋势。我专业以前要做图，人工画，以前只画图就要好多人，一个组就要十几二十个才能轮转的过来，因为画图占时间，一个值班的人还要配一到两个画图的。后来电脑制图了，就一个人花一小会儿改一改。一个组只要5-6个人就轮转过来了。 很多行业有了AI也是这样，用的人会减少很多。
举例比如什么专业呢？
一个没人认识的帖子就作为你的证据了？NYT刚发了一篇文章反驳了这个说法，以Mayo Clinic为例：
“People should stop training radiologists now,” Geoffrey Hinton said nine years ago, adding that it was “just completely obvious” that within five years A.I. would outperform humans in that field.
At the Mayo Clinic, A.I. tools have been researched, developed and tailored to fit the work routines of busy doctors. The staff has grown 55 percent since Dr. Hinton’s forecast of doom, to more than 400 radiologists.
(at the same time)..the radiology department has an A.I. team of 40 people including A.I. scientists, radiology researchers, data analysts and software engineers. They have developed a series of A.I. tools, from tissue analyzers to disease predictors.
Dr. Halamka, president of Mayo Clinic Platform and an A.I. optimist, believes the technology will transform medicine. “Five years from now, it will be malpractice not to use A.I.,” he said. “But it will be humans and A.I. working together.”
Dr. Hinton agrees. In retrospect, he believes he spoke too broadly in 2016, he said in an email. He didn’t make clear that he was speaking purely about image analysis, and was wrong on timing but not the direction, he added.
In a few years, most medical image interpretation will be done by “a combination of A.I. and a radiologist, and it will make radiologists a whole lot more efficient in addition to improving accuracy,” Dr. Hinton said.
wow我还以为三年级小学生 本来我还不相信ai可以代替不用操作procedure的医生
AI也在进化啊，又不是停滞不前。现在不行，10年20之后呢？AI可是可以全年不间断的学习。
你要是喂ai所有题库加所有书 然后让ai考board，那大概率会比人高。
说实话，我喜欢听ai说。 Ai你可以问100个问题，还能问，你说的是90%问题不大还是89%问题不大？你说的这句话clinical study data拿出来给我看看。
Don’t count on regulations as your moat. 只需要国债接近破产，所有的被认为会一成不变的旧有规矩都可以被打破。到时候只看价值和成本
就美国家庭医生那种随便问几个问题就急急忙忙跑路 然后收250刀，没看出来有任何的bonding和人文关怀
这AI也不够聪明啊。 永远学不会
其实内科医生的本质，就是先收集和录入信息，然后利用过往经验知识和数据，通过简单逻辑得出诊断和治疗结论。 这种大数据处理是AI最擅长的
也没有了医患的矛盾，有的医生问几句话他就烦了。 或者他也的确是没有时间。AI就不会
医生自己在家里弄1ai。效率足够高的话，就不需要多医生了
AI发展很快，而人类的学习和记忆力是有限的，综合能力一定是AI取胜
这个评论很有道理
已经比人高了，现在不少医院用Google 这个 May 18, 2023 https://www.artisana.ai/articles/googles-new-medical-ai-passes-medical-exam-and-outperforms-actual-doctors A new study from Google’s research division shows that Med-PaLM 2, their AI language model specifically trained in medical knowledge, scored an astounding 86.5% on a question set styled after the US Medical Licensing Examination (USMLE), well surpassing the typical 60% pass threshold for human examinees. More importantly, a panel of human doctors consistently preferred Med-PaLM 2's answers to those offered by actual physicians, a sign of the massive leaps in progress AI models have made in mere months.
ChatGPT 和 Google AI 都已经考过美国医生执照USMLE考试的啊，要不然你看那些网络医生怎么那么便宜？amazon29美元，那是用着便宜的能开处方的NP和PA外加AI加持吧。
早就超过人工看了。
我现在问chatgpt ,有时候还是有出错的时候。不知道是不是因我用的free的，问太多问题，会出错？但是它态度非常好，我指出它的错误，它也会认😂
我上个月测试 还读不了超声心动图呢
对
壁垒该是被攻破的时候了