Microsoft CEO Admits That AI Is Generating Basically No Value https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/microsoft-ceo-admits-ai-generating-123059075.html Victor Tangermann Sat, February 22, 2025 at 7:30 a.m. EST 3 min read Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella, whose company has invested billions of dollars in ChatGPT maker OpenAI, has had it with the constant hype surrounding AI. During an appearance on podcaster Dwarkesh Patel''''s show this week, Nadella offered a reality check. "Us self-claiming some [artificial general intelligence] milestone, that''''s just nonsensical benchmark hacking to me," Nadella told Patel. Instead, the CEO argued that we should be looking at whether AI is generating real-world value instead of mindlessly running after fantastical ideas like AGI. To Nadella, the proof is in the pudding. If AI actually has economic potential, he argued, it''''ll be clear when it starts generating measurable value. "So, the first thing that we all have to do is, when we say this is like the Industrial Revolution, let''''s have that Industrial Revolution type of growth," he said. "The real benchmark is: the world growing at 10 percent," he added. "Suddenly productivity goes up and the economy is growing at a faster rate. When that happens, we''''ll be fine as an industry." Needless to say, we haven''''t seen anything like that yet. OpenAI''''s top AI agent — the tech that people like OpenAI CEO Sam Altman say is poised to upend the economy — still moves at a snail''''s pace and requires constant supervision. So Nadella''''s line of thinking is surprisingly down-to-Earth. Besides pushing back against the hype surrounding artificial general intelligence — the realization of which OpenAI has made its number one priority — Nadella is admitting that generative AI simply hasn''''t generated much value so far. As of right now, the economy isn''''t showing much sign of acceleration, and certainly not because of an army of AI agents. And whether it''''s truly a question of "when" — not "if," as he claims — remains a hotly debated subject. There''''s a lot of money on the line, with tech companies including Microsoft and OpenAI pouring hundreds of billions of dollars into AI. Chinese AI startup DeepSeek really tested the resolve of investors earlier this year by demonstrating that its cutting-edge reasoning model, dubbed R1, could keep up with the competition, but at a tiny fraction of the price. The company ended up punching a $1 trillion hole in the industry after triggering a massive selloff. Then there are nagging technical shortcomings plaguing the current crop of AI tools, from constant "hallucinations" that make it an ill fit for any critical functions to cybersecurity concerns. Nadella''''s podcast appearance could be seen as a way for Microsoft to temper some sky-high expectations, calling for a more rational, real-world approach to measure success. At the same time, his actions tell a strikingly different story. Microsoft has invested $12 billion in OpenAI and has signed on to president Donald Trump''''s $500-billion Stargate project alongside OpenAI CEO Sam Altman. After multi-hyphenate billionaire Elon Musk questioned whether Altman had secured the funds, Nadella appeared to stand entirely behind the initiative. "All I know is I’m good for my $80 billion," he told CNBC last month in response to Musk''''s accusations.
Victor Tangermann Sat, February 22, 2025 at 7:30 a.m. EST 3 min read
Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella, whose company has invested billions of dollars in ChatGPT maker OpenAI, has had it with the constant hype surrounding AI.
During an appearance on podcaster Dwarkesh Patel''''s show this week, Nadella offered a reality check.
"Us self-claiming some [artificial general intelligence] milestone, that''''s just nonsensical benchmark hacking to me," Nadella told Patel.
Instead, the CEO argued that we should be looking at whether AI is generating real-world value instead of mindlessly running after fantastical ideas like AGI.
To Nadella, the proof is in the pudding. If AI actually has economic potential, he argued, it''''ll be clear when it starts generating measurable value.
"So, the first thing that we all have to do is, when we say this is like the Industrial Revolution, let''''s have that Industrial Revolution type of growth," he said.
"The real benchmark is: the world growing at 10 percent," he added. "Suddenly productivity goes up and the economy is growing at a faster rate. When that happens, we''''ll be fine as an industry."
Needless to say, we haven''''t seen anything like that yet. OpenAI''''s top AI agent — the tech that people like OpenAI CEO Sam Altman say is poised to upend the economy — still moves at a snail''''s pace and requires constant supervision.
So Nadella''''s line of thinking is surprisingly down-to-Earth. Besides pushing back against the hype surrounding artificial general intelligence — the realization of which OpenAI has made its number one priority — Nadella is admitting that generative AI simply hasn''''t generated much value so far.
As of right now, the economy isn''''t showing much sign of acceleration, and certainly not because of an army of AI agents. And whether it''''s truly a question of "when" — not "if," as he claims — remains a hotly debated subject.
There''''s a lot of money on the line, with tech companies including Microsoft and OpenAI pouring hundreds of billions of dollars into AI.
Chinese AI startup DeepSeek really tested the resolve of investors earlier this year by demonstrating that its cutting-edge reasoning model, dubbed R1, could keep up with the competition, but at a tiny fraction of the price. The company ended up punching a $1 trillion hole in the industry after triggering a massive selloff.
Then there are nagging technical shortcomings plaguing the current crop of AI tools, from constant "hallucinations" that make it an ill fit for any critical functions to cybersecurity concerns.
Nadella''''s podcast appearance could be seen as a way for Microsoft to temper some sky-high expectations, calling for a more rational, real-world approach to measure success.
At the same time, his actions tell a strikingly different story. Microsoft has invested $12 billion in OpenAI and has signed on to president Donald Trump''''s $500-billion Stargate project alongside OpenAI CEO Sam Altman.
After multi-hyphenate billionaire Elon Musk questioned whether Altman had secured the funds, Nadella appeared to stand entirely behind the initiative.
"All I know is I’m good for my $80 billion," he told CNBC last month in response to Musk''''s accusations.
差不多，给open ai花了800亿堆硬件，多出来的成果不超过10%，基本上属于一个骗局。这800亿，全部花在买英伟达显卡或者其他硬件设施上了，这还只是微软。 也就是说，美国，英伟达可能有5000亿美元的显卡的投入，能产出的或者能赚到的钱就是500亿。 因为性能没有大的提升，压根就赚不到钱。
之前为什么赌能赚钱，就是赌中国这个市场造不出光刻机，造不出AI芯片。变相证明Deepseek的方向正确性。
工业自动化。机器人稍微通用化一些，可以多用途，不需要特别聪明，能用自然语言交待任务，机器人24小时工作就可以了。
完全取代knowledge workers因为hallucination还是行不通，但是已经可以提高很多效率了，coding，文本处理等。
对资本家是可以降本增效的。谷歌内部已经用AI编码25%了。
别再自欺欺人啦
以前10个需要的工作，只需要1-2个，这个不是科幻，是正在发生的未来啊！
但，过份焦虑也不太有用。 很不幸的我们活在了structure employee 的初期动荡期。接下去几年毕业的孩子，小学的娃们，这个冲击，真的是不知道接下去路怎么走。
所以还是努力搬砖啊。
戳破GenAI泡沫这种事，还要某些创始人将来跳出来声泪俱下的控诉才是标志性转折。
对有英伟达股票的人来说不愿意看到这些，只想当鸵鸟
已经开始啦。CPA告诉我大的审计工作AI已经有些成效了哦。几年前完全没人相信机器可以基本完全代替的活，AI做成了。 印度外包+AI= 据说好多人被lay 了。
那也是一家雇佣许多人的大公司啊。
说实话现在AI应用的程度，根本达不到取代人的水平。你说的这些人，很大可能是因为automation或者digital transformation而被取代，不是因为AI。只是现在大部分人把AI和code混为一谈了。
一个是取代不了，二个是发展太慢了。 比如手机和电脑，还有开始的芯片，效益和性能都是翻倍发展，哪怕是小米都这样
假设是新手机，比如2024年，卖100万台，性能是一秒10亿次。 那么2025年就应该，卖200万台，性能是20亿次，价格还不变。
也就是说Open AI发展了好几年来，各项指标理应翻了2的几个次方了。之前因为垄断，坐地收钱，就没发展了，但是总这样，投资者的回报关过不了啊
AI 编码 25% 那个是瞎掰，不能把所有机器/脚本生成的代码都算到 AI 头上