Donald Trump Ahead in Just One Swing State: Final NYT-Siena Poll Published Nov 03, 2024 at 7:06 AM EST Updated Nov 03, 2024 at 9:16 AM EST Donald Trump is leading Kamala Harris in just one swing state, according to the final Sienna College/New York Times poll before the election. The result, released on Sunday, shows Harris leading in Nevada, North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Georgia. The candidates are tied in Pennsylvania and Michigan, while Trump leads in Arizona. It surveyed 7,878 likely voters across the seven states between October 24 and November 2, with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 points within each state. Newsweek has contacted the campaigns of Trump and Harris via email for comment.
Sienna College/New York Times is one of America's most trusted pollsters. Aggregator FiveThirtyEight ranks it first on its list of 282 for its historical track record and transparency. Analyst Nate Silver ranks it in the top two firms, giving it an A+ grade. Donald Trump (left) in Warren, Michigan, on November 1, 2024, and Kamala Harris (left) in Madison, Wisconsin, on October 30, 2024. Trump is leading Harris in just one swing state, according to the final Sienna... More Matt Rourke/ASSOCIATED PRESS Since the last round of NYT/Sienna polling in the battleground states, momentum appears to have moved towards Harris in Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina, three states where Trump previously led her, but where she is now ahead. In Pennsylvania, polls have tightened in Trump's favor. The previous NYT/Sienna poll, conducted between October 7 and October 10, had Harris leading by 4 points in the Keystone State—it now has them tied. In Michigan, the results were unchanged: the candidates were tied in the previous survey conducted between September 21 and 26, and they remain tied now. In Wisconsin, Harris has maintained her lead and in Arizona, Trump has maintained his lead. As well as the presidential race, the poll also showed a narrowing race for some Senate seats. The latest poll found Pennsylvania Democrat Bob Casey leads by 5 points, down from 9 in September. In Wisconsin, Democrat Senator Tammy Baldwin leads by 4 percentage points, down from 8 in September. In Arizona and Nevada, Democrats have larger leads, with Ruben Gallego leading Republican Kari Lake by 5 points, and Nevada's incumbent Senator Jacky Rosen holding a comfortable 9-point lead over Republican challenger Sam Brown. Despite the overall strong results from Democratic Senate candidates in the swing states, those alone will not be enough for the party to hold its majority, due to conservative former Democrat Senator Joe Manchin likely to be replaced by Republican Jim Justice in West Virginia, and Democrat incumbent Jon Tester looking unlikely to retain his Montana seat from the challenge of Republican challenger Tim Sheehy. According to NYT/Sienna's latest national survey, which polled 2,516 voters between October 20 and 23, the electorate is evenly split at 48 percent for both Harris and Trump. https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-kamala-harris-swing-states-final-nyt-siena-poll-election-1979254
纽约时报的最后民调昨天全部发布完之后（七大战场州，哈些微领先四州，2州打平，1州些微输），今天发布预防性save face的补丁：我们可能在瞎猜，因为我们可能象以前一样，严重低估川普的支持度。我们的民调不能测出不回答引起的偏差，因为民主党人比共和党人回馈我们民调问卷的可能性多16%。也就是说：问100个主党，100个和党，回答牛屎民调问卷的主党比和党多16个。 Democrats are 16% more likelier than republicans to respond to our polls。 这差不多是纽时承认自己的民调偏向嘻哈姐5%。牛屎用心良苦，既要hold住弱智嘻哈姐不崩盘，又要保住自己的脸面。 有没有注意到牛屎的民调双方加总不到100%，只有94%-96%。消失的4%-6%，就是未回答民调问题的共和党人。将川普的民调加4%-5%就差不多准了。
我最近看了一下以前川在联合国大会上发言被台下人笑的片段，我现在真觉得他是不是就是delusional, 就是对事实没法做出判断。那时候他也没那么老，也还没有Covid发生，他说自己两年内做的比任何一个总统4年都做的多做的好，大概这意思吧。所以台下人都笑了。然后他自己有点吃惊台下的反应就说，oh I didn’t expect that, but that is ok. 这不是delusion 这是啥。一些对事情客观的判断以及对周围人的反应的预判都没有。是不是那种太大的ego所以造成了这种delusion. 真的绝对不适合当国家领导人。偏听偏信，而且这次周围都是一群疯子。上次至少还有一些正常的共和党人。这次完全都是极端的人做幕僚。完全觉得这是个互相的选择，他的taste决定了他选择这些人，同样这些人以及后面的人选择他因为他可以被控制。他不是辩论一说到rally size就take the bait, 不知道说他是个puppet 他会不会生气，真的，被人fed各种吃猫吃狗，小孩去学校进去是男孩出来是女孩的话术，然后竟然就能张嘴就说出来。艾玛，他就是个puppet，不过是个主动自愿互相利用的puppet. 不过他的border control还是很多人支持的。这点民主党得改变。
They were expecting thousands of people at JD Vance rally, with Don Jr, in Pennsylvania. Only tens of people showed up. pic.twitter.com/X8m6OcJABN — Mike Sington (@MikeSington) November 3, 2024
itmm 发表于 2024-11-03 11:23 Donald Trump Ahead in Just One Swing State: Final NYT-Siena Poll Published Nov 03, 2024 at 7:06 AM EST Updated Nov 03, 2024 at 9:16 AM EST Donald Trump is leading Kamala Harris in just one swing state, according to the final Sienna College/New York Times poll before the election. The result, released on Sunday, shows Harris leading in Nevada, North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Georgia. The candidates are tied in Pennsylvania and Michigan, while Trump leads in Arizona. It surveyed 7,878 likely voters across the seven states between October 24 and November 2, with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 points within each state. Newsweek has contacted the campaigns of Trump and Harris via email for comment.
Sienna College/New York Times is one of America's most trusted pollsters. Aggregator FiveThirtyEight ranks it first on its list of 282 for its historical track record and transparency. Analyst Nate Silver ranks it in the top two firms, giving it an A+ grade. Donald Trump (left) in Warren, Michigan, on November 1, 2024, and Kamala Harris (left) in Madison, Wisconsin, on October 30, 2024. Trump is leading Harris in just one swing state, according to the final Sienna... More Matt Rourke/ASSOCIATED PRESS Since the last round of NYT/Sienna polling in the battleground states, momentum appears to have moved towards Harris in Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina, three states where Trump previously led her, but where she is now ahead. In Pennsylvania, polls have tightened in Trump's favor. The previous NYT/Sienna poll, conducted between October 7 and October 10, had Harris leading by 4 points in the Keystone State—it now has them tied. In Michigan, the results were unchanged: the candidates were tied in the previous survey conducted between September 21 and 26, and they remain tied now. In Wisconsin, Harris has maintained her lead and in Arizona, Trump has maintained his lead. As well as the presidential race, the poll also showed a narrowing race for some Senate seats. The latest poll found Pennsylvania Democrat Bob Casey leads by 5 points, down from 9 in September. In Wisconsin, Democrat Senator Tammy Baldwin leads by 4 percentage points, down from 8 in September. In Arizona and Nevada, Democrats have larger leads, with Ruben Gallego leading Republican Kari Lake by 5 points, and Nevada's incumbent Senator Jacky Rosen holding a comfortable 9-point lead over Republican challenger Sam Brown. Despite the overall strong results from Democratic Senate candidates in the swing states, those alone will not be enough for the party to hold its majority, due to conservative former Democrat Senator Joe Manchin likely to be replaced by Republican Jim Justice in West Virginia, and Democrat incumbent Jon Tester looking unlikely to retain his Montana seat from the challenge of Republican challenger Tim Sheehy. According to NYT/Sienna's latest national survey, which polled 2,516 voters between October 20 and 23, the electorate is evenly split at 48 percent for both Harris and Trump. https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-kamala-harris-swing-states-final-nyt-siena-poll-election-1979254
meishan123 发表于 2024-11-03 11:54 我最近看了一下以前川在联合国大会上发言被台下人笑的片段，我现在真觉得他是不是就是delusional, 就是对事实没法做出判断。那时候他也没那么老，也还没有Covid发生，他说自己两年内做的比任何一个总统4年都做的多做的好，大概这意思吧。所以台下人都笑了。然后他自己有点吃惊台下的反应就说，oh I didn’t expect that, but that is ok. 这不是delusion 这是啥。一些对事情客观的判断以及对周围人的反应的预判都没有。是不是那种太大的ego所以造成了这种delusion. 真的绝对不适合当国家领导人。偏听偏信，而且这次周围都是一群疯子。上次至少还有一些正常的共和党人。这次完全都是极端的人做幕僚。完全觉得这是个互相的选择，他的taste决定了他选择这些人，同样这些人以及后面的人选择他因为他可以被控制。他不是辩论一说到rally size就take the bait, 不知道说他是个puppet 他会不会生气，真的，被人fed各种吃猫吃狗，小孩去学校进去是男孩出来是女孩的话术，然后竟然就能张嘴就说出来。艾玛，他就是个puppet，不过是个主动自愿互相利用的puppet. 不过他的border control还是很多人支持的。这点民主党得改变。
Donald Trump is leading Kamala Harris in just one swing state, according to the final Sienna College/New York Times poll before the election. The result, released on Sunday, shows Harris leading in Nevada, North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Georgia. The candidates are tied in Pennsylvania and Michigan, while Trump leads in Arizona.
It surveyed 7,878 likely voters across the seven states between October 24 and November 2, with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 points within each state. Newsweek has contacted the campaigns of Trump and Harris via email for comment.
Sienna College/New York Times is one of America's most trusted pollsters. Aggregator FiveThirtyEight ranks it first on its list of 282 for its historical track record and transparency. Analyst Nate Silver ranks it in the top two firms, giving it an A+ grade.
Since the last round of NYT/Sienna polling in the battleground states, momentum appears to have moved towards Harris in Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina, three states where Trump previously led her, but where she is now ahead.
In Pennsylvania, polls have tightened in Trump's favor. The previous NYT/Sienna poll, conducted between October 7 and October 10, had Harris leading by 4 points in the Keystone State—it now has them tied.
In Michigan, the results were unchanged: the candidates were tied in the previous survey conducted between September 21 and 26, and they remain tied now. In Wisconsin, Harris has maintained her lead and in Arizona, Trump has maintained his lead.
As well as the presidential race, the poll also showed a narrowing race for some Senate seats.
The latest poll found Pennsylvania Democrat Bob Casey leads by 5 points, down from 9 in September.
In Wisconsin, Democrat Senator Tammy Baldwin leads by 4 percentage points, down from 8 in September.
In Arizona and Nevada, Democrats have larger leads, with Ruben Gallego leading Republican Kari Lake by 5 points, and Nevada's incumbent Senator Jacky Rosen holding a comfortable 9-point lead over Republican challenger Sam Brown.
Despite the overall strong results from Democratic Senate candidates in the swing states, those alone will not be enough for the party to hold its majority, due to conservative former Democrat Senator Joe Manchin likely to be replaced by Republican Jim Justice in West Virginia, and Democrat incumbent Jon Tester looking unlikely to retain his Montana seat from the challenge of Republican challenger Tim Sheehy.
According to NYT/Sienna's latest national survey, which polled 2,516 voters between October 20 and 23, the electorate is evenly split at 48 percent for both Harris and Trump.
https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-kamala-harris-swing-states-final-nyt-siena-poll-election-1979254
anyhow 希望也好预测也好，坚信这次反川力量超过川党力量： 川党必败！
我不太相信滨州会Tie，我觉得波多黎各人的影响加上早投数据来看，民主党应该领先更多。另外滨州现任州长也是民主党的。
在各民调里属于最大样本（之一），近 8000
谢谢科普。
宾州还是拜登的老家，他已经过去助选了！
是不是川普不出钱买poll了？他好像收网了，djt也大跌
世界变化快，这行情已经回到了10月9号之前的情况
Democrats are 16% more likelier than republicans to respond to our polls。
这差不多是纽时承认自己的民调偏向嘻哈姐5%。牛屎用心良苦，既要hold住弱智嘻哈姐不崩盘，又要保住自己的脸面。
有没有注意到牛屎的民调双方加总不到100%，只有94%-96%。消失的4%-6%，就是未回答民调问题的共和党人。将川普的民调加4%-5%就差不多准了。
加油，种族分子MAGA大输
我都不敢插sign。 少数族裔，我怕极端白川粉来🔥
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https://x.com/mikesington/status/1853086584540659922
GA在mason dison line以南，如果是白男候选人没问题，黑女还是有一定变数。黑人保守派对堕胎权的态度也比较复杂。一直有人认为堕胎权是白人对黑人的节育运动（堕胎权实施后黑人人口增长明显减缓）
今天看到的harris广告
和党危了危了，我老这必须去肉身投票了
他也可能就是老痴了，他都没把体检报告公布出来。
两个不是一回事，楼主那个是NYT Siena College poll，算是一个高质量poll, 你这个是NYT的aggregate poll (好多在一起平均的) 而且所有这些都是margin of error. 能不能不一惊一乍的。那个IOWA 的才值得乍一乍。
黑人：你有没有听说过一个更惊奇的故事-还有中国病毒做川粉的🤣