supersleeper 发表于 2024-10-21 19:52 我说他是高质量，是和MAGA造假poll对你 这个你也要take a grain of salt end of the day it’s all about the turn out 当然这个前提是MAGA不在选举日附近制造恐怖袭击前提下
是的，还是投票为准，把poll扔在一边吧，反正都是margin of error. 希望美国人民给我一个惊喜，狠狠打我脸，deliver Harris 七个摇摆州(其实也不是没可能)。
NEW — Trump ground game in AZ and NV being done by America PAC may be further compromised by canvassers faking door knocks with GPS spoofing apps, per how-to-fake video obtained @guardian exclusive https://t.co/3blHSfRSrK — Hugo Lowell (@hugolowell) October 22, 2024
I've been saying for several days now that the early vote looks strong for Dems in MI. A huge driver for that is turnout among modeled Dem women. At this point in '20 GOP women were turning out at a higher rate than Dem women (3.6 pts), right now Dem women have a 5.7 pt advantage pic.twitter.com/wK9ENRhlQv — Tom Bonier (@tbonier) October 22, 2024
I've been saying for several days now that the early vote looks strong for Dems in MI. A huge driver for that is turnout among modeled Dem women. At this point in '20 GOP women were turning out at a higher rate than Dem women (3.6 pts), right now Dem women have a 5.7 pt advantage pic.twitter.com/wK9ENRhlQv — Tom Bonier (@tbonier) October 22, 2024
Maricopa (116k) and Pima (28k) are the two largest daily totals to date. Also updating yesterday are Pinal (14.4k) and Gila (2.6k). Dem turnout at 19.4% Total: 666k 🔵: 243k 🔴: 280k ⚫: 144k Turnout: 15.4% 🔵: 19.4% 🔴: 18.1% ⚫: 9.4% Adv 🔴+37k Ballots |🔵+1.2% TO 这个是az的data。 az是最早用mail in ballots的州之一
民主党在Nevada的早投表现更差 The headline: Republicans lead statewide in Nevada after three days of early voting and mail ballot counting. This has not happened in a presidential year in The Reid Machine Era, which encompasses the races since 2008. This could signal serious danger for the Dems and for Kamala Harris here. https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2024
Newsweek 左媒的报道：https://www.newsweek.com/republicans-early-voting-trump-president-mark-halperin-1973148 If Early Voting Trends Hold, Trump Will Be President
wintergreen457 发表于 2024-10-22 18:31 Newsweek 左媒的报道：https://www.newsweek.com/republicans-early-voting-trump-president-mark-halperin-1973148 If Early Voting Trends Hold, Trump Will Be President
落地无声 发表于 2024-10-22 18:33 nv只有clark county是蓝的其他都是深红。 clark county是LV的所在地。
It's pretty easy to explain: The Clark firewall has all but collapsed (it's 4,500 votes) and the rurals are way overperforming their share of the electorate with what has been tabulated, nearly by 4 points -- almost all taken from Clark's share. The large mail ballot lead enjoyed by Dems has been erased and more by the GOP lead in in-person early voting. https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2024
wintergreen457 发表于 2024-10-22 18:31 Newsweek 左媒的报道：https://www.newsweek.com/republicans-early-voting-trump-president-mark-halperin-1973148 If Early Voting Trends Hold, Trump Will Be President
wintergreen457 发表于 2024-10-22 18:35 It's pretty easy to explain: The Clark firewall has all but collapsed (it's 4,500 votes) and the rurals are way overperforming their share of the electorate with what has been tabulated, nearly by 4 points -- almost all taken from Clark's share. The large mail ballot lead enjoyed by Dems has been erased and more by the GOP lead in in-person early voting. https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2024
clark county的选票昨天才开始return统计到，因为寄出晚了。 不过我们还可以观望几天。 今年更多的dem会in person投票 vs gop更多的mail in or early vote（不知道nv有没有）
你要看是谁写的。 “If the early vote numbers stay the way they are, and that''s a big if, we will almost certainly know before Election Day who''s going to win the election,
“If the early vote numbers stay the way they are, and that's a big if, we will almost certainly know before Election Day who's going to win the election,” says @MarkHalperin. “If these numbers hold up in the states where we can understand even partially what the data is like,… pic.twitter.com/xbflN74zAF — 2WAY (@2waytvapp) October 22, 2024
应该没有比washington post 更左的。 当然很可能我无知，更左的我就没读过了 Early-voting data shows Republican reversal appears to be paying off https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/10/22/early-voting-republicans-democrats-trump-harris/
应该没有比washington post 更左的。 当然很可能我无知，更左的我就没读过了 Early-voting data shows Republican reversal appears to be paying off https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/10/22/early-voting-republicans-democrats-trump-harris/
wintergreen457 发表于 2024-10-22 18:47
因为今年不同往年，dem的选民怕mail in ballots又要被gop挑战，很多都改选举日当天in person投票（比如我和我lg，我家人和朋友），相反，gop鼓励大家早投。
Kamala Harris to rally with Colin Allred in Houston days before Election Day Harris’ surprise visit comes in the closing weeks of a campaign in which she has largely focused her efforts on other states. BY JASPER SCHERER OCT. 22, 2024 9 HOURS AGO
落地无声 发表于 2024-10-22 20:06 Kamala Harris to rally with Colin Allred in Houston days before Election Day Harris’ surprise visit comes in the closing weeks of a campaign in which she has largely focused her efforts on other states. BY JASPER SCHERER OCT. 22, 2024 9 HOURS AGO
Harris' campaign announced she will hold a rally alongside Democratic Senate candidate Colin Allred in Houston on Friday. Democrats have had their eyes on the Lone Star State, hoping that dwindling Republican margins could make it competitive in 2024. But as only razor-thin margins separate Harris and Trump in battleground states, Trump has carved out a stronger lead in Texas. The event will be Harris' first trip to Texas since she replaced President Joe Biden as the Democratic presidential nominee in late July. Democrats are hoping her appearance can energize voters across the state and help catapult Allred to victory in his race against Republican Senator Ted Cruz, who has seen a smaller lead than Trump. On Tuesday, FiveThirtyEight's polling aggregate gave Trump a 6.8 point lead in Texas, up from his 5.9 point lead one month earlier, on September 22. In the Senate race, Cruz holds a 3.8 point lead over Allred, according to the average. A Morning Consult poll, conducted among 2,048 likely voters from October 6 to October 15, showed Trump with a 4-point lead over Harris (50 percent to 46 percent). A YouGov/Texas Politics Project poll, which surveyed 1,091 likely voters from October 2 to October 10, showed Trump up five points (51 percent to 46 percent). It had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.97 percentage points.
A University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs poll showed Harris with an identical 5-point margin (51 percent to 46 percent). It had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.69 percentage points. A Marist College poll, conducted among 1,186 likely voters from October 3 to October 7, showed Trump up seven points (53 percent to 46 percent).
打败谎言和MAGA这个coup 2.0计划的最好途径就是：事实 facts data
废话不多说，我贴宾州实时数据（大家仔细观察看看班上疮分门如何重复election is stolen这个谎言，哪怕是在这个数据贴里面）
🦅 Pennsylvania - 2024 General Election - Day 10
📥 921,720 votes cast
🔵 DEM: 580,073 - 54.2% returned 🔴 GOP: 254,424 - 46.4% returned 🟡 IND: 87,223 - 38.8% returned
VBM Splits: 🔵 62.9% / 🔴 27.6% / 🟡 9.5%
🗳️ Ballot Edge: 🔵+325,649 📈 Return Edge: 🔵+7.8
🦅 Pennsylvania - 2024 General Election - Day 9
📥 791,804 votes cast
🔵 DEM: 506,320 - 48.4% returned 🔴 GOP: 212,015 - 40.4% returned 🟡 IND: 73,469 - 34.1% returned
VBM Splits: 🔵 63.9% / 🔴 26.8% / 🟡 9.3%
🔷 DEM firewall: +294,305 📈 Return Edge: D+8
🦅 Pennsylvania - 2024 General Election - Day 8
📥 692,561 votes cast
🔵 DEM: 450,379 - 43.5% returned 🔴 GOP: 179,208 - 35% returned 🟡 IND: 62,974 - 29.9% returned
VBM Splits: 🔵 65% / 🔴 25.9% / 🟡 9.1%
🔷 DEM firewall: +271,171 📈 Return Edge: D+8.5
🦅 Pennsylvania - 2024 General Election - Day 7
📥 631,725 votes cast
🔵 DEM: 416,239 - 40.6% returned 🔴 GOP: 158,486 - 31.8% returned 🟡 IND: 57,000 - 27.6% returned
VBM Splits: 🔵 65.9% / 🔴 25.1% / 🟡 9%
🔷 DEM firewall: +257,753 📈 Return Edge: D+8.8
🦅 Pennsylvania - 2024 General Election - Day 6
📥 536,212 votes cast
🔵 DEM: 358,703 - 35.4% returned 🔴 GOP: 130,076 - 26.8% returned 🟡 IND: 47,433 - 23.5% returned
VBM Splits: 🔵 66.9% / 🔴 24.3% / 🟡 8.8%
🔷 DEM firewall: +228,627 📈 Return Edge: D+8.6
州内机构的最后一轮调查 - F&M, SP&R, 和 Muhlenberg。 高质量的调查机构，如 NYT/Siena, Marist 等。 来自 Patriot Polling, Morning Consult, Trafalgar, ActiVote 等机构的民调应该被忽略。这些都是MAGA直接控制的，作为coup 2.0计划一部分的所谓hacking poll，就是为了混淆视听造成trump大幅度领先的假象 另外提醒一点 - 不要被民调结果的起伏牵着鼻子走。这些数字是用来提供信息的，而不是绝对真理。绝对真理是实际投票人数如何，投票率如何
另外， Michigan的穆斯林也在捣乱。这些人非常愚蠢。trump肯定对他们非常坏啊😯。这是明摆着的情况。 如果 Michigan拿不下来， 就比较麻烦了。 需要其它2个摇摆州
穆斯林 呵呵 支持MAGA的那脑子恐怕和本班黄疮一个回路
我憎恨MAGA疮粉，同时也憎恨那些精神哈马斯
穆斯林是不会支持川普的，但他们不出来投票对民主党在密歇根州很不利
你说的对，这个要根据和2016 2020的历史记录来比才有意义
今年gop和trump都鼓励他们的选民早投票，所以gop早投比2020和2022多。 很多harris选民因为怕gop到时又耍赖不认结果，都选择投票日in person去投票。 但是，early voting可以显示那一派更有积极性和激情
历史记录也不好讲。2020年是Covid年，而且今年Trump不是号召他的粉早投票了吗？话说哪里可以看到historical data? 我看GA形势不妙，不过也不算太意外，GA只有上次蓝了。
他一向是中间派形象，reaching across the aisle, 这是在争取中间选民，那些赞同trump的policy但是讨厌trump的character，反正基本盘都巩固了，他不会失去任何一个本来要投他的选民。
ga的senator 2022年也赢了（对手太菜）
7 state polls from WaPo/Schar. Among LVs:
—Georgia: Harris 51/47 —Wisconsin: Harris 50/47 —Michigan: Harris 49/47 —Pennsylvania: Harris 49/47 —Nevada: tie 48/48 —North Carolina: Trump 50/47 —Arizona: Trump 49/46
不错，加油。
穆斯林有聪明的时候吗？有勇无谋
真的是depressing，可能最后如果赢也就是276票。当然能赢就行，270也行。
我说他是高质量，是和MAGA造假poll对你
这个你也要take a grain of salt end of the day it’s all about the turn out
当然这个前提是MAGA不在选举日附近制造恐怖袭击前提下
是的，还是投票为准，把poll扔在一边吧，反正都是margin of error. 希望美国人民给我一个惊喜，狠狠打我脸，deliver Harris 七个摇摆州(其实也不是没可能)。
穆斯林不投票，就是投票trump啊。 穆斯林，打仗不行， 生孩子第一。人多啊。
如果 Harris 失败， 坚决拥护 以色列打死它们。以色列确实歧视它们。
没有Muslim选票，Michigan拿不下来
求仁得仁
这些穆斯林在控制女人等方面，本来就和MAGA惺惺相惜。这次求仁得仁，MAGA上台以色列肯让要把巴勒斯坦全灭掉，把美国境内穆斯林全部赶出去。但是我觉得MAGA会健谈柿子捏，肯定线搞美华
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https://x.com/hugolowell/status/1848696950276685882 他们自己人都骗自己人， on brand
对对对，一定会把美华拉进集中营，你还不快跑回国，报名参加集中营的国内高等华人挤得不行了
Data source https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/08/28/key-things-to-know-about-us-election-polling-in-2024/
今年也不一定，有很多shy Harris voter。很多共和党女选民决定悄悄投Harris ，不敢给党性高于一切的家人知道。到底有多少，没人知道。
木木再傻也不会选一个对他们残忍种族清洗的总统吧。 trump在任的时候至少没有任何战争。
这些数据啥意思呀？
🔵 DEM: 580,073 - 54.2% returned 🔴 GOP: 254,424 - 46.4% returned 🟡 IND: 87,223 - 38.8% returned
VBM Splits: 🔵 62.9% / 🔴 27.6% / 🟡 9.5%
🗳️ Ballot Edge: 🔵+325,649 📈 Return Edge: 🔵+7.8
看民调，10% gop，比biden2020年多5%。
这很正常啊，他们认可以前的gop，不认现在披着gop外衣的川党
就是邮寄选票，发出去的现在收回来的有多少。 民主党已经收回了54%。 62.9%选票是来自民主党人，然后现在民主党人投票比共和党人多325K，高出约8%。
🔵 Democratic 61.7% | 649,060 votes (+68,987) 🔴 Republican 26.8% | 300,862 votes (+46,438) ⚪️ Other 9.7% | 101,733 votes (+14,510)
楼主提议不用看的Trafalgar排名第二
楼主推荐的TYT/Siena 排名倒数
Typo. 是2020大选民调准确率。
那就祝你心想事成
赞👍
📥 1,051,655 votes cast
🔵 DEM: 649,060 - 60.1% returned 🔴 GOP: 300,862 - 53.6% returned 🟡 IND: 101,733 - 44.5% returned
VBM Splits: 🔵 61.7% / 🔴 28.6% / 🟡 9.7%
Ballot Edge: 🔵+348,198 Return Edge: 🔵+6.5
赞👍！
离firewall很近了
mail in ballots
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https://x.com/tbonier/status/1848696422821994909
This is what happens when GOP takes away rights from women
Total: 666k 🔵: 243k 🔴: 280k ⚫: 144k Turnout: 15.4% 🔵: 19.4% 🔴: 18.1% ⚫: 9.4% Adv 🔴+37k Ballots |🔵+1.2% TO
这个是az的data。 az是最早用mail in ballots的州之一
early vote https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/early-vote 显示NC， 民主党35%，共和党34%。民主党高于共和党
AZ，在early vote里是共和党领先
The headline: Republicans lead statewide in Nevada after three days of early voting and mail ballot counting. This has not happened in a presidential year in The Reid Machine Era, which encompasses the races since 2008. This could signal serious danger for the Dems and for Kamala Harris here.
https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2024
Nevada 早投两党持平
民主党应该领先很多， 因为早投的票大部分是从民主党以前占优的county。 我贴的linkz有详细的报道
拉斯维加斯的邮寄票好像晚寄出了。
这个结果和2020比似乎不够给力 拜登2020有近200万邮寄选票，川普2020大概60万邮寄选票
If Early Voting Trends Hold, Trump Will Be President
nv只有clark county是蓝的其他都是深红。 clark county是LV的所在地。
2020年有疫情，今年很多harris voters都计划in person 11/5去投票。
gop和trump今年鼓励他们的选民早投
Newsweek 感觉不像左媒，是右媒
It's pretty easy to explain: The Clark firewall has all but collapsed (it's 4,500 votes) and the rurals are way overperforming their share of the electorate with what has been tabulated, nearly by 4 points -- almost all taken from Clark's share. The large mail ballot lead enjoyed by Dems has been erased and more by the GOP lead in in-person early voting.
https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2024
mark Halperin的文章
哈哈哈。如果你看了他们的头条还这么说，那就随便吧。
clark county的选票昨天才开始return统计到，因为寄出晚了。 不过我们还可以观望几天。 今年更多的dem会in person投票 vs gop更多的mail in or early vote（不知道nv有没有）
你要看是谁写的。
“If the early vote numbers stay the way they are, and that''s a big if, we will almost certainly know before Election Day who''s going to win the election,
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https://x.com/2waytvapp/status/1848732444305830161
Early-voting data shows Republican reversal appears to be paying off
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/10/22/early-voting-republicans-democrats-trump-harris/
因为今年不同往年，dem的选民怕mail in ballots又要被gop挑战，很多都改选举日当天in person投票（比如我和我lg，我家人和朋友），相反，gop鼓励大家早投。
如果你真这么认为就会忽略这些早投数据，而不是和人在这里争辩
Texas , 目前是民主党领先不少。
如果Texas翻蓝，Trump就不用选了，什么讨论Texas， Florida 的都是浪费时间， 每年最后还是看那几个摇摆州。
德州那个穆斯林区长不是endorse疮毒了吗 就是因为biden支持以色列打中东
以色列tm也是故意拉美国下水，在国际上给美国拉仇恨，国内给民主党拉仇恨
这是要管我言论自由么？ 你谁啊 不想看我发言可以拉黑我这不就清静了么
Texas这次很有可能翻蓝
No poll supports that. Almost all polls point to Trump winning Texas by more than 5 points.
TX有越变越蓝的趋势，但是这次还是不可能。
Kamala Harris to rally with Colin Allred in Houston days before Election Day Harris’ surprise visit comes in the closing weeks of a campaign in which she has largely focused her efforts on other states. BY JASPER SCHERER OCT. 22, 2024 9 HOURS AGO
这个有点surprise ，不过可能也就是support Allred，毕竟这是最有希望翻蓝的senate席位
On Tuesday, FiveThirtyEight's polling aggregate gave Trump a 6.8 point lead in Texas, up from his 5.9 point lead one month earlier, on September 22. In the Senate race, Cruz holds a 3.8 point lead over Allred, according to the average. A Morning Consult poll, conducted among 2,048 likely voters from October 6 to October 15, showed Trump with a 4-point lead over Harris (50 percent to 46 percent). A YouGov/Texas Politics Project poll, which surveyed 1,091 likely voters from October 2 to October 10, showed Trump up five points (51 percent to 46 percent). It had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.97 percentage points.
A University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs poll showed Harris with an identical 5-point margin (51 percent to 46 percent). It had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.69 percentage points. A Marist College poll, conducted among 1,186 likely voters from October 3 to October 7, showed Trump up seven points (53 percent to 46 percent).
宾州目前mail vote收回了1051k， 总共1843k的申请。 有837k没邮寄回来， 20年(2629k/3087k), 有458k没邮寄回来。 估摸到了10月底差不多愿意投的都投了， 还会有400K+的新数据，假设这400k+跟目前的基本类似， 下一步就需要跟20年做对比才有意义，单纯 62%：28%不说明问题。
纸面数据上 相比较20年, D 76%->62%, R 22%->28%, D大败， 但是直观看， 很大部分选民24年从mail变成了in-person。 宾州的in-person 和mail -vote的对比差异应该是全国最大的，到底因为什么无从知晓。 对比24年， D有834K 从mail变成了in-person(R:250K)， 那么假设坚持mail的人还是按照20年的投票比例 (87.7%D, 79.4%R), 那么按照目前的D/P/O的mail 人数， 折算出来的模拟数值，应该是962k/462k/162k 或者是 62%D,27%R, 对比目前结果61.7v28.6 , R24年比20年提高1-2%。 考虑估算的误差，还有20年D1.2%不到的优势， 只能说估算了个寂寞，一切还都是五五之间。
这个线性估算不一定多准，首先是20年D多的这586k (834k:250k) mail， 这么多的mail vote 会不会按原比例转化为in person 的票，是个疑问。12/16大选宾州都是5.8M的总投票，20年变成了6.8M. 24年mail vote上面少掉了1M+,这些人是回到12/16模式还是20，会左右最终结果。 另外还有10%左右的 No Party Affiliation. 目前看24年200k的No Party Affiliation mail vote没有显著的改变投票结果，大体比例跟20年差异不大。 对应No Party Affiliation in person到底是不是还是如此，也是个小的未知数，当然大概率上应该维持不变。