我手中的选票投给Harris就是最大的power，难道美国人的选票还要用钱来赌？我非常自信HARRIS，我跟大多数的美国普通人一样，My vote is my power! 你们随便有1M可以赌的太牛啦。不过你投的钱多虽然数字出来好看，但也只有一票啊🤣 赌的网站上的数字即不代表人数，也不代表国籍，更不代表选票（反而一些赌的网站美国公民不能买🤣）。 愿意赚钱去赌呗，但这个数字不要用来预测，因为不是每个美国选民的真金白银！
这个 poll 还比较靠谱，样本比较大时间跨度长。 The new Washington Post-Schar School poll suggested Harris has the electoral votes needed to win the White House next month. She has the lead over Trump in the swing states of Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, according to the poll. President Biden carried those swing states, as well as Nevada, in 2020 to win the election. The poll found Harris has a 4-point lead in Georgia with 51 percent of support among likely voters compared to Trump’s 47 percent. Among registered voters, she has a 6-point lead. The poll also found that Harris also has the lead across the so-called “Blue Wall” of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. She has a 3-point lead in Wisconsin with 50 percent of support compared to Trump’s 47 percent of support among likely voters. In Michigan and Pennsylvania, she has a 2-point lead over the former president. Winning the Blue Wall could be Harris’s best path to victory. In 2020, Biden narrowly carried the three Blue Wall states as well as the swing states of Nevada and Georgia to secure his bid for the White House. Trump has the edge in Arizona and North Carolina, while the two candidates are tied in Nevada with 48 percent of support each, according to the poll. In Arizona, Trump has a 3-point lead among likely voters with 49 percent of support compared to Harris‘s 46 percent. Trump also has the lead in the battleground state of North Carolina, where he narrowly defeated Biden in 2020. He has 50 percent of support among likely voters in the state while Harris has 47 percent. Overall, the poll found that the race was deadlocked across the seven swing states surveyed. The poll found 47 percent of registered voters across the seven swing states said they would definitely or probably support Harris while 47 percent said the same of Trump. Among likely voters, Harris had a 1-point lead with 49 percent of support compared to Trump’s 48 percent of support. The poll comes as the two candidates continue to court voters in the key swing states as Election Day creeps closer. Many other national and swing state polls show that the race is too close to call with just two weeks to go.
seekingalpha 发表于 2024-10-21 21:00 这个 poll 还比较靠谱，样本比较大时间跨度长。 The new Washington Post-Schar School poll suggested Harris has the electoral votes needed to win the White House next month. She has the lead over Trump in the swing states of Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, according to the poll. President Biden carried those swing states, as well as Nevada, in 2020 to win the election. The poll found Harris has a 4-point lead in Georgia with 51 percent of support among likely voters compared to Trump’s 47 percent. Among registered voters, she has a 6-point lead. The poll also found that Harris also has the lead across the so-called “Blue Wall” of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. She has a 3-point lead in Wisconsin with 50 percent of support compared to Trump’s 47 percent of support among likely voters. In Michigan and Pennsylvania, she has a 2-point lead over the former president. Winning the Blue Wall could be Harris’s best path to victory. In 2020, Biden narrowly carried the three Blue Wall states as well as the swing states of Nevada and Georgia to secure his bid for the White House. Trump has the edge in Arizona and North Carolina, while the two candidates are tied in Nevada with 48 percent of support each, according to the poll. In Arizona, Trump has a 3-point lead among likely voters with 49 percent of support compared to Harris‘s 46 percent. Trump also has the lead in the battleground state of North Carolina, where he narrowly defeated Biden in 2020. He has 50 percent of support among likely voters in the state while Harris has 47 percent. Overall, the poll found that the race was deadlocked across the seven swing states surveyed. The poll found 47 percent of registered voters across the seven swing states said they would definitely or probably support Harris while 47 percent said the same of Trump. Among likely voters, Harris had a 1-point lead with 49 percent of support compared to Trump’s 48 percent of support. The poll comes as the two candidates continue to court voters in the key swing states as Election Day creeps closer. Many other national and swing state polls show that the race is too close to call with just two weeks to go.
有人好奇为啥要强调这个美国境内呢？因为有人用非美国人买的赌博网站当成民调，特别是polymarket。这个美国公民是不可以下注的，看下面LINK的说明：
https://x.com/blueatlgeorgia/status/1847487215623889002
对，一定要投票！ 而且本来基本盘的州也要去投票，不要出意外🍀
能不能给点干货，贴贴各州实际投票数目
都辟谣多少次了
Poly market是Theil musk maga 自娱自乐的造假东西
大牛你可以找到贴上来的
我的标题是摇摆州的民调
至于后面那个LINK，不是总有人拿什么赌博网站的所谓真金白银来做数据吗？ 那些网站大部分都非美国公民买的，一堆外国人在热烈买美国大选的BETS，自然没啥可信度啦视频里面主持人也谈到这一点啦，贴出来挺好啊
可以看这个网站 https://projects.votehub.com/pages/early-voting-tracker
我就是知道有人发这样的才在后面发赌博网站的说明啊，你没看吗？在这些网站上买的是非美国人，这些没有选票的人的BETS，能代表美国的选民吗？ 你自己点开链接看看啊，还信非美国人买的赌博网站🤣
我不知道为啥视频出不来，只有链接，视频切个屏
这么自信，那是你发大财的好机会，你去买相反的就行。买不了国际的买美国网站也可以发不少财
你自己看我发的视频，那些网站怎么运行的，一群外国人在那里狂欢竟然可以当成数据
https://www.predictit.org/ 是美国网站，美国人都可以买，我很早以前都买过。
外国人也不是傻子，没人想自己的钱打水漂
哥们你发财的机会来了，快去买哈三，1m变3m啊
对的，有的网站某些州的居民可以买，但美国之外的全可以买啊。特别是某个人用多少钱砸下去，可以改变赔率（视频开头也谈到了），钱多但也只是代表一票啊。 而且你前面的polymarket美国公民不能买（Vance背后的老板弄的，而且只能是非美国公民赌的网站🤣美国公民都没有资格买），为啥跟别的赌博网站数据差不多？只能表明非美国人赌博的时候热烈认为trump能上啊，但这些没有选票的外国人能代表美国公民的民意吗？🤣
我前面发的数据是摇摆州美国公民的民调，七个摇摆州里面Harris领先四州，一个平手。trump就领先两州
我宁愿相信真金白银的赌盘，poll的话，只看所有主要poll的平均值，免得被偏左偏右的poll带偏
我手中的选票投给Harris就是最大的power，难道美国人的选票还要用钱来赌？我非常自信HARRIS，我跟大多数的美国普通人一样，My vote is my power!
你们随便有1M可以赌的太牛啦。不过你投的钱多虽然数字出来好看，但也只有一票啊🤣 赌的网站上的数字即不代表人数，也不代表国籍，更不代表选票（反而一些赌的网站美国公民不能买🤣）。 愿意赚钱去赌呗，但这个数字不要用来预测，因为不是每个美国选民的真金白银！
谁都别信
你这种信赌盘的想法， 就是某些大笔赌资压川普赢的动力。
说啥人不会随便丢弃真金白银， 那是对普通人而已， 对于某些势力， 他们撒钱就是为了agenda, 花在赌盘或广告或抽奖100万。都是一个目的
机器人啊？会讲点别的吧？黄川活着，华人万劫不复。
你不看谁砸的真金白银？
算啦，等结果吧。我就是看到这个新闻转发过来！
但希望你们不要用赌博网站的数据作为将来某种事情的依据
现在民主党执政 你为什么还活着
美国都变成加州纽约万劫不复，美国都变成密西西比阿拉巴马，经济GDP掉到现在三分之一，民生靠借债发救济，教育只有教会学校禁止教进化论，外交跟盟友全部闹翻跪舔俄罗斯，民权女人有色人种不算人，这就MAGA了。疮粉跟狗一样，巧克力它吃了会死，屎倒吃得欢。
如果不听劝阻，粥它们屁股
哈哈哈哈哈👍
说得好
有机会还是上个大学吧
上帝说实话了，中国人支持trump， 全家人进地狱。全家女人被抓普是。
这个是trump自己说的。
有毛病得治！
不要相信民调，抓紧时间投票。+1
The new Washington Post-Schar School poll suggested Harris has the electoral votes needed to win the White House next month. She has the lead over Trump in the swing states of Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, according to the poll. President Biden carried those swing states, as well as Nevada, in 2020 to win the election.
The poll found Harris has a 4-point lead in Georgia with 51 percent of support among likely voters compared to Trump’s 47 percent. Among registered voters, she has a 6-point lead.
The poll also found that Harris also has the lead across the so-called “Blue Wall” of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. She has a 3-point lead in Wisconsin with 50 percent of support compared to Trump’s 47 percent of support among likely voters. In Michigan and Pennsylvania, she has a 2-point lead over the former president.
Winning the Blue Wall could be Harris’s best path to victory. In 2020, Biden narrowly carried the three Blue Wall states as well as the swing states of Nevada and Georgia to secure his bid for the White House.
Trump has the edge in Arizona and North Carolina, while the two candidates are tied in Nevada with 48 percent of support each, according to the poll. In Arizona, Trump has a 3-point lead among likely voters with 49 percent of support compared to Harris‘s 46 percent.
Trump also has the lead in the battleground state of North Carolina, where he narrowly defeated Biden in 2020. He has 50 percent of support among likely voters in the state while Harris has 47 percent.
The poll comes as the two candidates continue to court voters in the key swing states as Election Day creeps closer. Many other national and swing state polls show that the race is too close to call with just two weeks to go.
纽约就不用急了， 有没有你这一票纽约选举人票一定全给哈里斯
给选票办公室打电话，这个沟通直接有效
同时网上看看你们纽约州大概什么时候收到票。每个州不一样的
什么选民卡？在纽约州，去投票站带个ID就行了啊
不注册哪个党派也可以投票的，带上🆔就行。
对的，取样的方法，时间跟数量都比较可靠。时间跨度从9月29号到10月15号，七个摇摆州的选民，5016个样本
别，还是需要去投票。基本盘州的也不要放弃手中的票，以防意外
那今年你就要被骗了。
TRUMP任命了高法导致高法里，共和党绝对多数，大问题都在共和党手里。这样参众两院又基本都在共和党手里。这些导致无论如何，民众仅存一点理智的话，也应当不会再选一个共和党总统。
换句话说，TRUMP当年风光任命高法，导致他今天就注定无法当选 。
不要相信民调，抓紧时间投票。+2
确实，这个才是最重要的😄
虽然我的选票（已投）只支持其中一方，但我个人乐见双方的支持者都积极去投。无论哪方，投票的人越多，最后显示的结果也越能反应广大选民的取向。
第一次听说信赌狗的