In the 2020 U.S. presidential election, Pennsylvania played a crucial role, particularly with the surge in mail-in ballots due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Here’s a comparison of mail-in ballot results with the final total votes: 1. Mail Ballots: A significant majority of mail-in ballots in Pennsylvania were cast for Joe Biden. This was partly due to Democrats being more likely to vote by mail compared to Republicans, who were more inclined to vote in person on Election Day. • Biden received approximately 76% of mail-in ballots. • Trump received around 23% of mail-in ballots. 2. Election Day/In-Person Voting: Donald Trump dominated in-person voting on Election Day, receiving a much higher percentage of votes from voters who cast their ballots at polling stations. 3. Final Total Results: After all mail-in ballots, in-person votes, and provisional ballots were counted: • Joe Biden won Pennsylvania with 50.0% of the vote, totaling 3,458,229 votes. • Donald Trump received 48.8%, with a total of 3,377,674 votes. The shift towards Biden became more apparent as the mail-in ballots were counted after Election Day, turning what initially looked like a Trump lead (based on in-person voting) into a Biden victory as more mail-in ballots were processed. This process took a few days due to Pennsylvania laws that prohibited early counting of mail-in ballots before Election Day.
因为今年trump和gop都鼓励他们的选民尽快early vote（也就是邮寄投票） 很多2020年投Biden，因为怕gop又拿邮寄投票耍赖，pa的邮寄选票的还有各种信封签名的条件，都选择in person投票。 Pennsylvania Supreme Court declines to decide mail-in ballot issues before election ByAssociated The Pennsylvania Supreme Court has declined to step in and immediately decide issues related to mail-in ballots in the commonwealth with early voting already under way in the few weeks before the Nov. 5 election. The commonwealth’s highest court on Saturday night rejected a request by voting rights and left-leaning groups to stop counties from throwing out mail-in ballots that lack a handwritten date or have an incorrect date on the return envelope, citing earlier rulings pointing to the risk of confusing voters so close to the election.
看猜测不如看实际数据，宾州已经开始邮寄选票投票了，下面是最新收到的邮寄选票情况
Pennsylvania - 2024 General Election - Day 4
📥 344,215 votes cast
🔵 DEM: 238,877 - 24.6% returned
🔴 GOP: 76,236 - 17.1% returned
🟡 IND: 29,102 - 15.6% returned
VBM Splits: 🔵 69.4% / 🔴 22.1% / 🟡 8.5%
🔷 DEM firewall: +162,641
📈 Return Edge: D+7.5
可以看到主党选民热情高涨，今天才第四天，接近25%的选民已寄回邮寄选票。收到的选票中接近70%都是他们的票，才四天已经build up超过16万的firewall。
之所以叫Firewal是因为共和党选民更倾向于在选举日那天投票（其实是很愚蠢的做法，因为选举那天可能会有各种意外）而主党选民积极参与early vote和mail in，所以根据前几次选举包括中期选举经验，主党需要选前领先才会避免被当天反超。在宾州，主党如果能够达到35万的Firewall就会胜利，如果到40万将会压倒性胜利，和党将完全无法追上。现在才四天，已经完成一半任务，势头很好。
大胆预测，Harris将赢下宾州，最终赢得大选，而且结果可能是压倒性的。
（增加了每天趋势图，蓝色线在加速）
很多年轻人是不注册党派的
根据前几次选举分析，Independent 的倾向是55主党vs 45和党
今年有pandemic么？ 我2020年是因为疫情才选择mail in的，今年准备和疫情前一样，in person。 周围不少和我想法一样的。
2020年是疫情严重的时候，邮寄选票很多，完全没有可比性。今年会有很多人选择in person
只能看 D vs R的比例，看出哪方更有热情。
谷歌一下就有了。 其中Scott Perry的poll也非常不乐观
我家两孩子就是不注册党派的，都会邮寄投票（学校不在本地）
官方每天信息，都是公开的
https://www.pa.gov/en/agencies/vote/elections/elections-data.html
然后有爱好者做成表格
谢谢指出
Scott Perry 是宾州第十选区，是红区，居然民调落后民主党9个点，2020年川普赢了4个点
还有今天出来的宾州第七选区民调，拜登2020是险胜0.4，这次是主党候选人扩大优势到7个点 51-45
越接近大选，local选区民调而不是全国全州民调越能反应选民真实投票意愿
还再唠叨偷票呢？祥林嫂啊。能不能输的体面点
我注册了党派的。还是共和党党员…
民主党支持者的好处就是跟孩子观点一致，其乐融融
不过邮寄选票我预测各州都是投民主党的更多，这还无法预测总体结果吧？今年选择现场投票的应该远远超出邮寄投票的，所以还得等到投票日之后才知道。
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网上已经开始造谣$750是Loan，以后要还回去的。
借你吉言了
每个州不一样，佛罗里达是寄到就打开计票，但不可以公开投票结果的，只能到选举日公开，目的是选举日当天就能够快速知道结果。
PA是不能打开也是不知道投了谁，投票日打开计票，所以出结果非常慢。但可以公开的是哪个党派的选民寄回了选票。一般来都是投自己党派的人。
当然会有一小部分人cross vote，比如初选中支持Haley的共和党选民（大概20-35%）他们中的1/3明确表明会投Harris，也就是相当于10%的共和党这次会跨党支持Harris
我也觉得奇怪，哪有现在就开票的，都是投完票那天同时开票，楼主当别人傻子？
A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes.
LZ解释得很清楚了啊，没说是选拜登还是选哈里斯，说的是邮寄投票的人的党派
跟网上美国民众的发言趋向一致
哪里说开票了？ 写的是returned ballot breakdown by parties
宾州官网的信息
这样啊，谢谢你的信息。另外我猜还有相当一部分选民注册时不会选择自己的党派。
PS，你提到的这个支持Haley的共和党选民，大概三分之一会投Harris，这个很有意思。
活捉一个被犹太激光烤焦了的川粉
有本事去告，没证据就是在这散播谣言
密西根是不分党派的，早投的票数所以看的是女性的投票率，底特律的投票率，和少数民族比如黑人，缪斯林投票率，哪里的基本盘是比较有投票积极性的
前几天说北va早投票很少，说明民主党投票没有积极性可能要输掉大选。 后来不少人说北va早投票点少，停车不方便，要等10/13后多一些投票点，方便了才去投。
早投就是看双方的基本盘的积极性，然后竞选团队可以把精力和财力放到其他地方去
无数次证实了造谣张张嘴 辟谣跑断腿
现在各种裁员外包，找工作都是地狱模式，年轻人哪来的热情投票？
如果是这样得话我倒是很好奇看看最后的结果是不是一致，如果是的话这是一个很好预测选角结果得方式，如果不是的话就说明还有别的不确定因素。从往年得经验来说没有听说过有人拿邮寄选票来预测结果的。
1. Mail Ballots: A significant majority of mail-in ballots in Pennsylvania were cast for Joe Biden. This was partly due to Democrats being more likely to vote by mail compared to Republicans, who were more inclined to vote in person on Election Day. • Biden received approximately 76% of mail-in ballots. • Trump received around 23% of mail-in ballots. 2. Election Day/In-Person Voting: Donald Trump dominated in-person voting on Election Day, receiving a much higher percentage of votes from voters who cast their ballots at polling stations. 3. Final Total Results: After all mail-in ballots, in-person votes, and provisional ballots were counted: • Joe Biden won Pennsylvania with 50.0% of the vote, totaling 3,458,229 votes. • Donald Trump received 48.8%, with a total of 3,377,674 votes.
The shift towards Biden became more apparent as the mail-in ballots were counted after Election Day, turning what initially looked like a Trump lead (based on in-person voting) into a Biden victory as more mail-in ballots were processed. This process took a few days due to Pennsylvania laws that prohibited early counting of mail-in ballots before Election Day.
因为今年trump和gop都鼓励他们的选民尽快early vote（也就是邮寄投票） 很多2020年投Biden，因为怕gop又拿邮寄投票耍赖，pa的邮寄选票的还有各种信封签名的条件，都选择in person投票。
Pennsylvania Supreme Court declines to decide mail-in ballot issues before election
ByAssociated The Pennsylvania Supreme Court has declined to step in and immediately decide issues related to mail-in ballots in the commonwealth with early voting already under way in the few weeks before the Nov. 5 election. The commonwealth’s highest court on Saturday night rejected a request by voting rights and left-leaning groups to stop counties from throwing out mail-in ballots that lack a handwritten date or have an incorrect date on the return envelope, citing earlier rulings pointing to the risk of confusing voters so close to the election.
很有道理
今年的早投也可能反应出中间盘的积极性，因为JAN 6选民出现跟往年不一样的变化
我以前收到后都磨磨唧唧的等到快过期的前两天才邮寄，现在是生怕邮寄的选票丢了OR邮寄晚了，很积极
感谢！
简单想想，如果宾州只有78万选民，那么只要有一方得到了39万张票，那么也就不用再计票了；实际计算中肯定会再复杂一点，因为选民数是不固定的，后续的选票里面也会有民主党的选票，所以39万firewall可能对应到更多选民。
简单看了一下，宾州选民大概800多万，那么39万应该是不到5%的选票，作为摇摆州本来两党支持率应该比较接近，那么5%的variance确实基本上就能确认结果了。
对的,现在是最关键的时候。感觉川普的民调已经追上来了甚至超过。一定不要放松警惕,不要乐观,鼓励所有人都去投票。我今天又去捐了点款。
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黄右们家里咋办呢
Don't break the party. 不能让人高兴一个月吗？