So the Chinese launched this balloon to spy directly on the United States? Probably not. The Chinese would have known that sending a clearly observable balloon into the US heartland would be a provocative action, and they are unlikely to have done so on purpose. The most likely scenario, Antonio believes, is that the termination mechanism, which is used to bring down a balloon at the end of its desired flight time, failed. Typically a stratospheric balloon will have one or more backup termination mechanisms, but a technical problem would explain why a balloon launched in China days or weeks ago could have eventually drifted into the United States. (The Chinese government may not want to admit this technical failure publicly.) The prevailing currents in the stratosphere would appear to support this theory of a drifting balloon the Chinese government had lost control of. The time to fly such a balloon, for spying purposes, would be during the summer months, Antonio said. That''''s because during the winter the winds throughout the stratosphere are much more uniform in the Northern Hemisphere. This means that raising and lowering the balloon would provide very little steering capability. "Controlled stratospheric flight is a thing, but it''''s not something you can really do over the United States at this time of year," Antonio said.
二战结束后，美国军方开始“吉纳崔克斯项目”（Genetrix Project），利用高空侦查气球对苏联进行情报收集，从1950年代到1970年初，数百次放飞高空气球前往苏联和东欧领空进行侦察拍照。
1970年代中期，美国开始放弃高空气球侦查的手段，因为卫星技术的飞跃已经远远超过了气球侦查所能带来的深度和广度，美国过去对苏联的此类气球侦查最终也只能覆盖了8%的苏联领土。
此类气球通常在八万至12万英尺（24000至37000公尺）高度飞行，大大高于商业飞行的高度 – 民航机的飞行高度很少高于四万英尺的高度。即使是飞行高度最高的战斗机通常也不会飞越65000英尺的高度。
中国那套说辞恐怕连幼儿园的也骗不了，这个气球一肯定不是民用，二肯定不是气象气球
你是不是觉得中美不打一仗不过瘾啊？
美国这次应该会对气球上的探头，雷达，光学设备的性能进行研究，就大概能够推测土共目前的近地轨道卫星的情报收集能力。
你想多了，那个怂样也就忽悠美国韭菜。路都修不平，大兵们游过来打仗？摸鱼填肚子？
轮子的脑洞总是不让人意外
美国国防部有说对气球进行了通讯屏蔽，情报收集功能有限，而且公布了从中国开始飞行路径。
居然没有洗衣粉？
这个就是胡说八道了。 军方等它到水面上打，以便复原这个理由很有说服力。
你意思中美打不起来所以可以随便挑衅？ 真够乐观的
气球本身没有推进系统，所以只能升高降低来找风向。可是冬天要真的操控从中国到美国非常困难因为风向不好掌握。
So the Chinese launched this balloon to spy directly on the United States? Probably not. The Chinese would have known that sending a clearly observable balloon into the US heartland would be a provocative action, and they are unlikely to have done so on purpose. The most likely scenario, Antonio believes, is that the termination mechanism, which is used to bring down a balloon at the end of its desired flight time, failed. Typically a stratospheric balloon will have one or more backup termination mechanisms, but a technical problem would explain why a balloon launched in China days or weeks ago could have eventually drifted into the United States. (The Chinese government may not want to admit this technical failure publicly.) The prevailing currents in the stratosphere would appear to support this theory of a drifting balloon the Chinese government had lost control of. The time to fly such a balloon, for spying purposes, would be during the summer months, Antonio said. That''''s because during the winter the winds throughout the stratosphere are much more uniform in the Northern Hemisphere. This means that raising and lowering the balloon would provide very little steering capability. "Controlled stratospheric flight is a thing, but it''''s not something you can really do over the United States at this time of year," Antonio said.
气象气球的大小和挂载都不一样，
这个大概率是侦查气球，只是土共的技术不过关，
没办法才需要使用这种50年前的情报收集模式