Now that the US economy is recovering from the Depression of 2008, people are wondering when will be the next great economic crash. The business cycle in the USA has had a period of 18 years, so the most likely year for the next great recession is 2026. The Depression of 2026 will have the same causes as the other depressions since the early 1800s (see this article).
Nobody paid attention during the 1990s when those familiar with the real estate cycle predicted the Depression of 2008 (including myself, in 1997). Almost all economists, financial analysts, journalists, pundits, bloggers, and armchair cynics will also scoff at this prediction of a severe recession and depression in 2026. They will say there is no way to accurately predict such an event so far in advance. But the cycle exists precisely because people don’t believe it. There has been one fundamental cause of the boom and bust cycle: massive subsidies to land values. Since these subsidies are a governmental intervention into the market, the cause of the cycle is not “business,” hence the term ìbusiness cycleî is misleading. It is a cycle of economic distortions caused by government policies. The monetary subsidy to real estate consists of cheap credit. In the US, the Federal Reserve manipulates interest rates by expanding the money supply. An injection of money increases the money reserves of the banks, which then lower their interest rates to loan out the extra money. Cheap credit fueled the real estate bubble that peaked in 2006, and super-low interest rates today are sowing the seeds of the next bubble. Similar money creation occurs by other central banks. An artificial expansion of money and credit eventually causes price inflation, and one of its problems is that prices rise unevenly. Prices rise soonest and fastest where the money is being loaned out, and much of it goes to finance real estate purchases and construction. An example of relative price distortion is the increase in the purchase price of real estate relative to rentals. When the central bank reduces its expansion of money, interest rates rise, and the investments caused by cheap credit come to a halt, generating bank and other business failures. The other branch of government subsidies to land values is fiscal—government’s taxing and spending. The biggest subsidy is the generation of land rent by government’s public goods. Better transit, security, schools, parks, streets and highways make locations more attractive and productive, generating higher rent and land value. If the payments for these works come from the landowners, the payments reduce the rise of land values. But the financing of the public goods has mostly come from taxes on labor, enterprise, and goods. In the USA, landowners get special tax breaks. When a homeowner sells the house, much of the asset value gain is exempt from the capital gains tax. Owners of real estate can deduce mortgage interest and property taxes from taxable income. Those owning real estate other than their residence are able to deduct depreciation even if the building is not losing value, and they can sell their property tax free if they buy a similar property as an “exchange.” Land speculation can thus become tax-free. The reason why land is the most important element in the economic-distortion cycle is that much of the gains from economic expansion is captured by greater land rent. Then when speculators observe rising prices for real estate, they jump in, and increase the demand, accelerating the rise in prices. Land values then rise above the prices which those who actually want to use land can afford. High prices for land and high interest rates choke the expansion. As investment falls and workers in real estate lose their jobs, the economy falls into a recession.
In 2012, the US economy is still depressed, but recovering. The stock market has already been recovering, anticipating economic expansion. The economic recovery is slow because government has propped up land values and minimum wages, and also because of expected tax increases in 2013, higher oil costs, and the costs imposed by financial restrictions and medical insurance mandates. Elements boosting the economy are continued technological progress in electronics and biological applications, as well as the expansion of natural gas and oil extraction. By 2014, population growth and demolitions will have reduced the vacancies from the construction bubble, and then the growing economy will pull up rents and land values, attracting the speculation that will generate a ten-year real estate bubble that will peak around 2024. Shocks from outside the US economy could alter the cycle timing. The European sovereign debt crisis could end in massive defaults, but the European authorities are well aware of the dangers. They have not cured the problem, but have treated the effects with more debt, organized cancellations of some debt, and counter-productive austerity measures. Countries such as Greece could solve the debt problem with high growth by replacing their value-added taxes with land-value taxes, but Europeans would much rather depress their living standards than eliminate their land-value subsidies. There has also been the continuing threat of a war on Iranís nuclear program, as its national slogan ìDeath to America!î is taken seriously.
If such shocks don’t interrupt the cycle, the deep fiscal and monetary structures of the US economy, which have not changed in 200 years, will generate the next boom and bust just as they have done so in the past. But the Crash of 2026 will be much worse than that of 2008, because as the US government continues its annual trillion dollar deficits, by 2024, the US debt will have grown so large that US bonds will no longer be considered safe, and in the financial crisis, the US will no longer be able to borrow the funds needed to bail out the financial firms. Americans still have time to prevent the next great boom and bust, but they are culturally bound to the status quo, as are almost all economists, so the warnings will go unheeded as they did during the 1990s and 2000s. We are now far upstream, but heading down into the river of no return to the real estate and financial waterfall of 2024-2026.
Now that the US economy is recovering from the Depression of 2008, people are wondering when will be the next great economic crash. The business cycle in the USA has had a period of 18 years, so the most likely year for the next great recession is 2026. The Depression of 2026 will have the same causes as the other depressions since the early 1800s (see this article).
Nobody paid attention during the 1990s when those familiar with the real estate cycle predicted the Depression of 2008 (including myself, in 1997). Almost all economists, financial analysts, journalists, pundits, bloggers, and armchair cynics will also scoff at this prediction of a severe recession and depression in 2026. They will say there is no way to accurately predict such an event so far in advance. But the cycle exists precisely because people don’t believe it. There has been one fundamental cause of the boom and bust cycle: massive subsidies to land values. Since these subsidies are a governmental intervention into the market, the cause of the cycle is not “business,” hence the term ìbusiness cycleî is misleading. It is a cycle of economic distortions caused by government policies. The monetary subsidy to real estate consists of cheap credit. In the US, the Federal Reserve manipulates interest rates by expanding the money supply. An injection of money increases the money reserves of the banks, which then lower their interest rates to loan out the extra money. Cheap credit fueled the real estate bubble that peaked in 2006, and super-low interest rates today are sowing the seeds of the next bubble. Similar money creation occurs by other central banks. An artificial expansion of money and credit eventually causes price inflation, and one of its problems is that prices rise unevenly. Prices rise soonest and fastest where the money is being loaned out, and much of it goes to finance real estate purchases and construction. An example of relative price distortion is the increase in the purchase price of real estate relative to rentals. When the central bank reduces its expansion of money, interest rates rise, and the investments caused by cheap credit come to a halt, generating bank and other business failures. The other branch of government subsidies to land values is fiscal—government’s taxing and spending. The biggest subsidy is the generation of land rent by government’s public goods. Better transit, security, schools, parks, streets and highways make locations more attractive and productive, generating higher rent and land value. If the payments for these works come from the landowners, the payments reduce the rise of land values. But the financing of the public goods has mostly come from taxes on labor, enterprise, and goods. In the USA, landowners get special tax breaks. When a homeowner sells the house, much of the asset value gain is exempt from the capital gains tax. Owners of real estate can deduce mortgage interest and property taxes from taxable income. Those owning real estate other than their residence are able to deduct depreciation even if the building is not losing value, and they can sell their property tax free if they buy a similar property as an “exchange.” Land speculation can thus become tax-free. The reason why land is the most important element in the economic-distortion cycle is that much of the gains from economic expansion is captured by greater land rent. Then when speculators observe rising prices for real estate, they jump in, and increase the demand, accelerating the rise in prices. Land values then rise above the prices which those who actually want to use land can afford. High prices for land and high interest rates choke the expansion. As investment falls and workers in real estate lose their jobs, the economy falls into a recession.
In 2012, the US economy is still depressed, but recovering. The stock market has already been recovering, anticipating economic expansion. The economic recovery is slow because government has propped up land values and minimum wages, and also because of expected tax increases in 2013, higher oil costs, and the costs imposed by financial restrictions and medical insurance mandates. Elements boosting the economy are continued technological progress in electronics and biological applications, as well as the expansion of natural gas and oil extraction. By 2014, population growth and demolitions will have reduced the vacancies from the construction bubble, and then the growing economy will pull up rents and land values, attracting the speculation that will generate a ten-year real estate bubble that will peak around 2024. Shocks from outside the US economy could alter the cycle timing. The European sovereign debt crisis could end in massive defaults, but the European authorities are well aware of the dangers. They have not cured the problem, but have treated the effects with more debt, organized cancellations of some debt, and counter-productive austerity measures. Countries such as Greece could solve the debt problem with high growth by replacing their value-added taxes with land-value taxes, but Europeans would much rather depress their living standards than eliminate their land-value subsidies. There has also been the continuing threat of a war on Iranís nuclear program, as its national slogan ìDeath to America!î is taken seriously.
If such shocks don’t interrupt the cycle, the deep fiscal and monetary structures of the US economy, which have not changed in 200 years, will generate the next boom and bust just as they have done so in the past. But the Crash of 2026 will be much worse than that of 2008, because as the US government continues its annual trillion dollar deficits, by 2024, the US debt will have grown so large that US bonds will no longer be considered safe, and in the financial crisis, the US will no longer be able to borrow the funds needed to bail out the financial firms. Americans still have time to prevent the next great boom and bust, but they are culturally bound to the status quo, as are almost all economists, so the warnings will go unheeded as they did during the 1990s and 2000s. We are now far upstream, but heading down into the river of no return to the real estate and financial waterfall of 2024-2026. Ok2021 发表于 2022-07-26 16:37
当时看涨派（包括我自己）的反对理由： - 物价都在涨，凭什么房子不涨 - 房子是硬资产，通胀背景下能抗通胀 - 只要有新人流入，房子怎么会跌
那时候好像没有人直接反驳这几个观点。但是50cents，ClearBeaver和其他网友说了不同观点： - 房市滞后性很强，需要较长时间扭转趋势，起码半年。 - 房子不买也能租 - 新房降价老房子就不得不降价了
现在看来都一一验证了： - 房价确实跌了，没人加价了，pending很慢了 - 房子并不是硬资产，也会跌。鸡蛋牛奶才是必需品，不吃下一顿就饿了。房子今天不买明天也不会怎么样。 - 新人流入也可以租房；而且现在开始缩招甚至裁员，新人流不流入也不一定了 - 房市确实有滞后性，落后股市半年（这个也被华人网友说中了）。22年初故事开始跌，22年中没人承认房市没有跌。
那么一定有人说了，华人反指。看到楼主这个帖子，说明房市又要涨了。hmmm，我觉得起码要跌到明年夏天这个时候。大家觉得呢？
用 common sense
很多东西不难理解，
大趋势好预测，
timing market 很难
对于刚需买房，做道量力而行，
剩下的都是扯淡，没任何用处
我自己的房产经纪人比较有良心 让我等等
还是往将来看吧，大家都来预测。房市啥时候崩，咱可以再买点。。。
之前我们还在上学 没赶上那几波
19年开始看房 其实那时候机会就开始出现了 后面20年上了车 已经涨起来了
你觉得下一次机会是什么时候呢？ 我们也在等，也在犹豫是买更好的自住还是买投资房出租。
当然啊。如果出现一股脑看涨，一股脑看跌才是不睿智吧。
正因为在看涨中出现了看跌的ID，还给了原因和例子，才让至少我开始重新思考和分析，也没有在今年高点出手买房啊
现在我家附近的房子开始降价了3-5 万 有一个降价了10 万 还是没有人买 我觉得是2024-2026 年 我找一下有篇文章 你先看看这个 https://youtu.be/iWi82lSXAsk
利率高，房价低。 通胀预期高，房价上涨 房租涨，房价涨 收入涨，房价涨
楼主还是需要4个变量一起分析。
现在房租大涨，收入小涨，通胀预期稳下降，利率大幅上升。
市场会拉锯
主要原因是美国是自由经济国家 而中国的房子是官僚地主剥削雇佣工人的手段 有些华人想把中国那一套搬到美国来 不好使
看了下，这人预测2024-2026
租金涨说明需求还是在的，只是暂时抑制住了。还是得解决supply的问题才能根本上把房子降下来。
这次看大家对住院医和对房市的理解，就知道有多少人在”努力”的把对国内的见识搬到美国来用。还自鸣得意。
你现在也可以说 股票不可能一直跌，五年后涨了，和你的预测一点关系都没有。😄
很有用啊
21年我们就考虑买房，那时候50/50看不清，也没遇到心动的就一直没下手。 22年我已经同意其他看跌ID说的房价会跌，所以今年完全没有买的念头。
这不就避免高位站岗了吗？
华人多的地方就是卷。不买就租不起，拼命干活不然睡大街。
中印把北加搞得民不聊生，现在又跑来卷南加。反正我是打算跑路加州了。
你觉得很多房产经纪会懂得美国经济吗 我不是说全部哈 就我朋友圈20 多个房产经纪 有人房子出了问题还要我帮忙打电话替他们客户翻译 解决问题 我不信他们 😆
当然也有好的
但是已经买了的 我也不去说人家买贵了 那也不好。 有的是卖了第一栋卖了更好学区的第二栋 卖在高价 买在高价 也挺好 。
完全同意
经纪们利益和买家不一致，只要能成交，涨价降价他们都愿意成交。谁管之后高位站岗呢？
而且经纪们大多也不是经济学出身，好点的理工科转行，不好的文科转行，更过分的英语说不利索主妇/F2/H4转行 （我没别的意思。主妇/F2/H4和学经济理工科的都一样，只是主妇/F2/H4转行当经济明显不如经济学出身的经纪有优势），都是人云亦云，嘴上套路一套一套的。
2021 年初买房子 价格不算高，利息低 自己住的话 完全不是站高岗。 今年4-6 月抢房的价格高利息高。
和华人仅有一点关系。房价上涨原因太多，主要还是美国印了太多的钱。
你们俩说的不是一回事。她意思是如果你21年入了又卖掉，你不但避免站岗，还投机倒把赚了几十万。
今天分享多了 别因为我的分享影响到你 以后我要学会少说话😝
谈不上有远见，只是不咋疯狂。agent 肯定是鼓励你买呀，自己的钱自己做主。
是的，螳螂捕蝉，黄雀在后，新手死于追高，老手死于抄底
这种跟算命一样，18年一个周期，人家还说华北地震圈的周期是300年呢，怎么还没有大震呢
re
我两个房子跟你同一时间买 第一个现价是买价三倍，第二个17年买的，现价是买价两倍多 赚了两米多
其实不需要这么聪明。疫情那么大冲击、印刷机拼命印钱，基本上可以预料到这结局。
地震说了好多年了也没有来
我们等你哈。出手的时候华人上来吼一嗓子。
很多华人经纪英文都说不清
现在整个世界的经济环境，不跌有鬼了。因为想买的人都会在现在时刻观望不出手。 现在最惨的应该是急需花钱，必须出售的人。 自住根本不需要担忧，或者不需要出售投资房的也无需担忧。 通膨到这个程度，所有物料都涨上天，房子的基础也是土地和材料，当所有成本都上升时候，房子没道理会一直跌。所以中期看，大中城市以及周边房子没理由乱跌。 小农村不在讨论之列。因为需求相对少。
Apple p/e 还在25， 在15左右是比较理性稍低的。等到它跌倒15左右吧。
经济有些forward looking indicator 比如股市 和新房permit, 有些是共行的比如房价， 有些是滞后的indicator 比如坏账率，失业保险领取，在金融经济学中已经是熟知的知识。