最基本的投资经济：因为bond present value = future interest payment 折现+face value received at bond maturity 折现。折现就是除以复利。所以 利率升高，分母变大了，但分子不变。所以 bond present value 小了。
最基本的投资经济：因为bond present value = future interest payment 折现+face value received at bond maturity 折现。折现就是除以复利。所以 利率升高，分母变大了，但分子不变。所以 bond present value 小了。 DaTieChui 发表于 2022-04-15 01:12
回复 15楼心函的帖子 < 债券这个东西，就是depreciated cash flow, 可以每天买卖，差价就是利率，supply & demand几乎可以忽略不计，没人抢，因为不值得抢，简单地说 > Wondering perhaps there is still a speculating element involved, when comparing the charts of 2-year and 10-year t-notes for the last 3 years!? Just don"t understand!
回复 15楼心函的帖子 < 债券这个东西，就是depreciated cash flow, 可以每天买卖，差价就是利率，supply & demand几乎可以忽略不计，没人抢，因为不值得抢，简单地说 > Wondering perhaps there is still a speculating element involved, when comparing the charts of 2-year and 10-year t-notes for the last 3 years!? Just don"t understand! EvenOdd 发表于 2022-04-17 05:51
Q 1990s treasury bonds crisis ... Some members of the Salomon Brothers' bond arbitrage, such as John Meriwether, Myron Scholes and Eric Rosenfeld later became involved with Long-Term Capital Management, a hedge fund that collapsed in 1998.[30] The last years of Salomon Brothers, culminating in its involvement with Long-Term Capital Management, is chronicled in the 2007 book A Demon of Our Own Design. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salomon_Brothers UQ
在通胀加息大环境下打折卖是讲得通的，只是打折的幅度有点大，不知是否市场有矫枉过正之嫌。
拿真金白银给美联储看，不值得啊
< = future interest payment .. +...>
<但分子不变 >?
Re: 理解了bonds, treasury bonds的机制，实际操作上in practice, 确实bonds看似稳定，可是没有股票的growth stories可讲，哪怕公司发行的债券bonds，credit rating还是比较公正地计算risk rewards的，国债几乎就是monetary policy driven, 5月fed加息0.5的话，yield goes up, bond prices go down，或者在5月开会之前就能够实现bond prices go down的目标了，因为市场永远是先行的，那么为啥会有人买一个3个月内肯定跌的东西呢？50 basis points远远斗不过inflation，所以fed必须继续加息，那这个东西，就是一路降价处理，直到QT结束QE再度开始，那么，为啥不在跌透价格，更便宜的时候买呢？。。稳定的投资constantly dividend payouts，长期持有，是啊，黄金10年前这个价，10年后也是这个价，长期持有10年，确实挣了不少dividends，交完税，够买啥呢？从opportunity cost的角度来讲，10年中，难道没有其他投资能比这个不appreciated assets更好的投资了么？我不推荐什么，也不卖什么，只是附和下这个层主，提提问
因为分子的利率是你买债券时的利率，不是现在的利率。分母用的利率则是现在市场利率。
< 下跌这么多？>
Projects an expected rates level and trend in future? Bond is new to me.
Thanks. I need to spend much time to learn more.
理解，就是说这是个确定性下跌的品种，遭到市场抛弃是情有可原的。有一点不明白，vglt,tlt treasure bonds从高点都跌30%了，为什么跌幅远远大于利息上涨幅度？是否市场反应过度，还是说前期属于不理性上涨？
Nonono，你没明白，国债tlt, vangard vglt不是被市场抛弃，是bond债券这个产品的特殊性，决定它取决于利率，3 mos short term interest rates不在债券发行者手里，在第三者fed手里，债券的face value是固定的，你现在买93也好99也好，满期就是100，变不成101也变不成102（德国，日本这种国债negative interest, 101买，满期了100，及其稳定地保证。。呃，亏钱）所以在满期或者100附近的操作，是low risk low rewards，也就是人们说的稳定。。股票完全不一样啊，谁要告诉我tsla的一股face value只能是1000，那持有tsla股票的就是另一批等待退休者了。。债券和股票，完全不一样，aapl的股价是人们讨论的，aapl的债券，乏善可陈，债券这个东西，就是depreciated cash flow, 可以每天买卖，差价就是利率，supply & demand几乎可以忽略不计，没人抢，因为不值得抢，简单地说
< 债券这个东西，就是depreciated cash flow, 可以每天买卖，差价就是利率，supply & demand几乎可以忽略不计，没人抢，因为不值得抢，简单地说 >
Wondering perhaps there is still a speculating element involved, when comparing the charts of 2-year and 10-year t-notes for the last 3 years!?
Just don"t understand!
Q 1990s treasury bonds crisis
...
Some members of the Salomon Brothers' bond arbitrage, such as John Meriwether, Myron Scholes and Eric Rosenfeld later became involved with Long-Term Capital Management, a hedge fund that collapsed in 1998.[30] The last years of Salomon Brothers, culminating in its involvement with Long-Term Capital Management, is chronicled in the 2007 book A Demon of Our Own Design.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salomon_Brothers UQ