Notes from a call with Edward Ryan MD, Director of International Infectious Disease at Massachusetts General Hospital: 1 Close to 100% of the positive cases in MA are Omicron. Delta is almost completely gone from New England. 2 This surge will peak sometime between 1/10 and 1/21 and then begin a quick downhill journey of two to four weeks. 3 We will end up with a 20-50% positivity rate. 4 February will be clean up mode, March will begin to return to "normal" 5 Omicron lives in your nose and upper respiratory area which is what makes it so contagious. It isn't able to bond with your lungs like the other variants. 6 The increased hospitalizations should be taken with a grain of salt as most of them are secondary admissions (i.e. people coming in for surgery, broken bones, etc. who are tested for COVID) 7 We won't need a booster for omicron because they wouldn't be able to develop one before it's completely gone and we're all going to get it which will give us the immunity we need to get through it. 8 COVID will join the 4 other coronaviruses we deal with that cause the common cold, upper respiratory infections, RSV, etc. It will become a pediatric disease mainly affecting young children with no immunity. 9 40% of those infected will be asymptomatic 10 Rapid tests are 50-80% sensitive to those with symptoms, only 30-60% sensitive to those without symptoms 11 Contact tracing is worthless because we're all going to get it and there's no way we could keep up with it. 12 We are fighting the last war with COVID and should be pivoting back to normal life, but society isn't quite ready for it yet. 13 There is no need to stay home from work or to be a hermit unless you're immunocompromised or 85 or older, but he does recommend staying away from large gatherings for the next six weeks. 14 Spring/Summer will be really nice! Overall a great presentation. Lot of good news.
A researcher in Cyprus has discovered a strain of the coronavirus that combines the delta and omicron variant, Bloomberg News reported Saturday. Leondios Kostrikis, professor of biological sciences at the University of Cyprus, called the strain “deltacron.” So far, Kostrikis and his team have found 25 cases of the virus, according to the report. It’s still too early to tell whether there are more cases of the strain or what impacts it could have. meraviglia 发表于 2022-01-08 19:22
A researcher in Cyprus has discovered a strain of the coronavirus that combines the delta and omicron variant, Bloomberg News reported Saturday. Leondios Kostrikis, professor of biological sciences at the University of Cyprus, called the strain “deltacron.” So far, Kostrikis and his team have found 25 cases of the virus, according to the report. It’s still too early to tell whether there are more cases of the strain or what impacts it could have. meraviglia 发表于 2022-01-08 19:22
A researcher in Cyprus has discovered a strain of the coronavirus that combines the delta and omicron variant, Bloomberg News reported Saturday. Leondios Kostrikis, professor of biological sciences at the University of Cyprus, called the strain “deltacron.” So far, Kostrikis and his team have found 25 cases of the virus, according to the report. It’s still too early to tell whether there are more cases of the strain or what impacts it could have.
Notes from a call with Edward Ryan MD, Director of International Infectious Disease at Massachusetts General Hospital: 1 Close to 100% of the positive cases in MA are Omicron. Delta is almost completely gone from New England. 2 This surge will peak sometime between 1/10 and 1/21 and then begin a quick downhill journey of two to four weeks. 3 We will end up with a 20-50% positivity rate. 4 February will be clean up mode, March will begin to return to "normal" 5 Omicron lives in your nose and upper respiratory area which is what makes it so contagious. It isn't able to bond with your lungs like the other variants. 6 The increased hospitalizations should be taken with a grain of salt as most of them are secondary admissions (i.e. people coming in for surgery, broken bones, etc. who are tested for COVID) 7 We won't need a booster for omicron because they wouldn't be able to develop one before it's completely gone and we're all going to get it which will give us the immunity we need to get through it. 8 COVID will join the 4 other coronaviruses we deal with that cause the common cold, upper respiratory infections, RSV, etc. It will become a pediatric disease mainly affecting young children with no immunity. 9 40% of those infected will be asymptomatic 10 Rapid tests are 50-80% sensitive to those with symptoms, only 30-60% sensitive to those without symptoms 11 Contact tracing is worthless because we're all going to get it and there's no way we could keep up with it. 12 We are fighting the last war with COVID and should be pivoting back to normal life, but society isn't quite ready for it yet. 13 There is no need to stay home from work or to be a hermit unless you're immunocompromised or 85 or older, but he does recommend staying away from large gatherings for the next six weeks. 14 Spring/Summer will be really nice! Overall a great presentation. Lot of good news. barbaraa 发表于 2022-01-07 19:49
“Omicron lives in your nose and upper respiratory area which is what makes it so contagious. It isn't able to bond with your lungs like the other variants.” 应该是个好消息，只影响上呼吸道，不影响肺。
Grim Reality U.S. COVID update: Record broken for 3rd day in a row, number in hospital near all-time high - New cases: 899,441 - Average: 676,284 (+62,444) - States reporting: 49/50 - In hospital: 131,046 (+4,880) - In ICU: 22,116 (+409) - New deaths: 2,708
Grim Reality U.S. COVID update: Record broken for 3rd day in a row, number in hospital near all-time high - New cases: 899,441 - Average: 676,284 (+62,444) - States reporting: 49/50 - In hospital: 131,046 (+4,880) - In ICU: 22,116 (+409) - New deaths: 2,708 meraviglia 发表于 2022-01-07 22:37
Grim Reality U.S. COVID update: Record broken for 3rd day in a row, number in hospital near all-time high - New cases: 899,441 - Average: 676,284 (+62,444) - States reporting: 49/50 - In hospital: 131,046 (+4,880) - In ICU: 22,116 (+409) - New deaths: 2,708 meraviglia 发表于 2022-01-07 22:37
1 Close to 100% of the positive cases in MA are Omicron. Delta is almost completely gone from New England. 2 This surge will peak sometime between 1/10 and 1/21 and then begin a quick downhill journey of two to four weeks. 3 We will end up with a 20-50% positivity rate. 4 February will be clean up mode, March will begin to return to "normal" 5 Omicron lives in your nose and upper respiratory area which is what makes it so contagious. It isn't able to bond with your lungs like the other variants. 6 The increased hospitalizations should be taken with a grain of salt as most of them are secondary admissions (i.e. people coming in for surgery, broken bones, etc. who are tested for COVID) 7 We won't need a booster for omicron because they wouldn't be able to develop one before it's completely gone and we're all going to get it which will give us the immunity we need to get through it. 8 COVID will join the 4 other coronaviruses we deal with that cause the common cold, upper respiratory infections, RSV, etc. It will become a pediatric disease mainly affecting young children with no immunity. 9 40% of those infected will be asymptomatic 10 Rapid tests are 50-80% sensitive to those with symptoms, only 30-60% sensitive to those without symptoms 11 Contact tracing is worthless because we're all going to get it and there's no way we could keep up with it. 12 We are fighting the last war with COVID and should be pivoting back to normal life, but society isn't quite ready for it yet. 13 There is no need to stay home from work or to be a hermit unless you're immunocompromised or 85 or older, but he does recommend staying away from large gatherings for the next six weeks. 14 Spring/Summer will be really nice!
Overall a great presentation. Lot of good news.
🔥 最新回帖
deltacron和之前印度的delmicron一样吗？
那人肯定有问题，发帖回帖基本只和疫情有关，而且只会说各种论点说疫情有多悲观，最后的结论就是美国的方法要完。
赶紧去感染omicron，肯定防deltacron，疫苗估计防不了
看另外一个帖子，下一个变种会不会只感染没有感染过omicron的呢？如果传染性重症率都爆增，那岂不是这一轮没感染的完了？
Leondios Kostrikis, professor of biological sciences at the University of Cyprus, called the strain “deltacron.”
So far, Kostrikis and his team have found 25 cases of the virus, according to the report. It’s still too early to tell whether there are more cases of the strain or what impacts it could have.
🛋️ 沙发板凳
很多misinformation 和wishful thinking
哭笑不得🥲
打打鸡血，给韭菜挂个胡萝卜🥕传播正能量和鸡汤就是这些专家现在的工作。
应该不是，还会有新的变种出来 但是是不是会比omnicorn 更轻就不知道了
美国好多医生和专家水平都太差了。至今连什么叫传染病都没搞清楚。
欧美就是wishful thinking 太多了才不好好抗疫，总觉得能群体免疫，失败了多少回还不罢休
肯定还会有变种的。每年都会有新的变种。但是病毒性会越来越低。参考西班牙流感后面的走势。还有现在每年的流感。
希望吧
本来就是变轻了，caes量是去年的几倍，医院ICU根本没用reach capacity, 本地医院急诊多，大部分是预约不上检测或者一生到急诊的病人
发了很多paper了，从感染量，治病率和delta都不是一个level的，有兴趣的可以自己打开看看
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/?term=omicron+AND+severity&sort=date
今天安大略住院病人突破历史最高记录。
Can you point out which ones are misinformation?
同意，楼主能否贴一下原始出处？直接搜医生的名字，没有看到相关信息
不会的，除了北朝鲜不清楚，中国将会是最后一个结束的
你错了，这楼里有几个五毛就见不得美国好。其心可诛
yeah，中国的社会性清零好
今天死了2457，翻一倍是怎么回事
还没人知道下一个啥新病毒出来呢
顺便说说最近铺天盖地宣传的booster，也是没拿出任何关于抗体衰减的证据的，所以我是完全不信同样的一针疫苗，就这么今天打一针，明天在打一针，能有什么作用。
对，这人说话一看就不过脑子，真难以相信是个专业级别的人。专业级别的人敢说出这么多这么肯定的话，难道不用拿出大量数据和证据来佐证吗？
那你展开说说？
纯属义务教育不过关瞎扯。 虽然一楼也没什么道理。
就一个例子就可以用来类推？
我也是先在微信上看到的， 真是神奇
U.S. COVID update: Record broken for 3rd day in a row, number in hospital near all-time high
- New cases: 899,441 - Average: 676,284 (+62,444) - States reporting: 49/50 - In hospital: 131,046 (+4,880) - In ICU: 22,116 (+409) - New deaths: 2,708
会觉得全球lock down是一种可行办法甚至lock down2周的人就忽略了吧。。。
人家不是悲观，而是见不得疫情结束。
你知道什么是bueden of proof 谁主张谁举证吗？
人当然是真的，就是需要这个名字唬人 必须是在最好医院工作，最好大学毕业的。
为啥流行病都要按照西班牙流感的趋势来走啊？ 病毒突变越来越弱有什么根据？病毒突变难道不是随机 而是智能的？
bbc也改口了
这能说这网站上很多不在美国的，我早就发现了，这些人不带掩饰的，跟买提一样了
这么多天连续这么多确诊，居然还没到all time high?
既然谁也不知道走向怎样，至少这是个有准确记录的例子，看看怎么了？？你那么希望疫情一直延续下去？？
当然不希望。
但是就美国这种抗疫政策，疫情怕是没有这么快结束。
说一些坏的可能性就是五毛吗？ 只说好的可能性难道不是wishful thinking吗？ 我觉得疫情结束靠的是 安全有效的疫苗（目前的疫苗看样子还有待提高）， 安全有效的治疗 （现在新的治疗有待确认），物理隔离（口罩和社交距离）。现在物理隔离应该是最应该强调的。我觉得国内的做法虽然不一定百分百对，但比美国这边的负责任多了。 单纯靠病毒自己消失的话，唯一的可能性是不断有新的变种出现，每个变种都把相应的敏感人群消灭掉或者增加其免疫力，随后剩下的人对病毒多少都有抵抗力从而显得病毒毒性变弱。病毒毒性其实都是随机改变，只是所有易感人群都被消灭了。 现在的抗疫措施就是赌自己是幸运的，不是易感人群或者感染后获得一定免疫力。唯一的好消息是目前的变种只对老年人和有基础病的危险性更高，儿童多少有抵抗力。但以后的变种呢？我理解不了为啥毒性就一定会变弱？
Notes 之来源可否透露一二？
你在美国嘛？为什么哪儿都有你？美国不好你回去啊！我另一个投票贴你也不投票，怀疑你根本不在美国
这人一直希望疫情持续，而且在论坛只发疫情不好的消息，而且对新闻断章取义，严重怀疑他的动机
疫情持续不持续，也不是某个人的想法就可以决定的。多种可能性都讨论一下不是挺好的吗？
当然可以，但你去看看他的发帖你就会发现，不管什么时候，不管什么变种，不管什么数据，他都告诉大家，疫情不乐观，美国真烂
上个论坛也开始猎巫了？这么喜欢言论审查你怎么不回国呢
只有一个例子的话，看看当然没问题，但仅凭一个例子就想从中得到推论呢，准确度就不好说了。
只要弄清楚这个前提，那么你要“预言”点儿啥，或者就想说吉利话，那都没问题啊。。。
蓝皮护照，你帮我回去呀
美国华人，你让我去哪？
不同角度看问题而已，不盲目乐观。谁不想疫情早日结束，但美国现在这种抗疫方式，估计还要一段时间。
新变种也不是我发帖能够改变的。打好疫苗做好防护，减少感染减缓突变速度，才能真正战胜疫情。
你就像个病毒，让我们都保持谦卑的姿态
欧美这种抗疫方式会是第一波结束疫情的。
但美国现在这种抗疫方式，估计还要一段时间。
第一波结束的前提是会结束。病毒可没有人格，也不过人类时间，历史上被消灭的人种和文明不要太多。一直像现在这样也不一定是最坏结果。
这个论坛上和中国有关的消息但凡有一点儿Wishful thinking 就是五毛又来忽悠韭菜为什么还用脚投票赖在美国。 和我大美利坚有关的消息但凡是wishful thinking被指出可能愿望是好的，现实很骨感就是其心可诛。