挺好的，不浪费。 On May 17, Biden announced that "over the next six weeks, the United States of America will send 80 million doses overseas". 所以6月底应该送八千万，估计后面更多。
挺好的，不浪费。 On May 17, Biden announced that "over the next six weeks, the United States of America will send 80 million doses overseas". 所以6月底应该送八千万，估计后面更多。 francesjj 发表于 2021-06-23 13:21
看看 CDC最新公布的一组数据吧 JUST IN - CDC just released its myocarditis/pericarditis update. Post-second dose risk from mRNA COVID-19 vaccines in people under 25 could be over 200x the background rate (not accounting for underreporting). The post-second dose cases double from age 25 to 21, then double again in the 16-18 range. https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1407721367580053507
看看 CDC最新公布的一组数据吧 JUST IN - CDC just released its myocarditis/pericarditis update. Post-second dose risk from mRNA COVID-19 vaccines in people under 25 could be over 200x the background rate (not accounting for underreporting). The post-second dose cases double from age 25 to 21, then double again in the 16-18 range. https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1407721367580053507 springday 发表于 2021-06-23 13:43
看看 CDC最新公布的一组数据吧 JUST IN - CDC just released its myocarditis/pericarditis update. Post-second dose risk from mRNA COVID-19 vaccines in people under 25 could be over 200x the background rate (not accounting for underreporting). The post-second dose cases double from age 25 to 21, then double again in the 16-18 range. https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1407721367580053507 springday 发表于 2021-06-23 13:43
你下面的引用的twitter feed都说the variant with spike N417K looks to have arisen independently a number of times. A small cluster in the USA (largely CA) which looks like it may be epidemiologically linked...and a much larger /more genetically diverse cluster seen in countries across the globe 他接下来继续写：If the source cluster is small it is unlikely that travelers will appear in many countries with that particular variant --------------- 也就是说即使这个人的研究结果没错误，他认为两个variant是independent(而不是你认定的从加州传到印度）。他第二段话的implication甚至是小cluster例如加州的不太可能被旅行的人传到别的国家去。你引用的数据跟你的claims有矛盾 除此之外，在同一段话里你又连续做了2个unsubstantiated claims, 就是alpha和beta也都是疫苗造成的。这里面的confounding factors 可多了去了，我甚至不知道你能不能建立strong correlation
你下面的引用的twitter feed都说the variant with spike N417K looks to have arisen independently a number of times. A small cluster in the USA (largely CA) which looks like it may be epidemiologically linked...and a much larger /more genetically diverse cluster seen in countries across the globe 他接下来继续写：If the source cluster is small it is unlikely that travelers will appear in many countries with that particular variant --------------- 也就是说即使这个人的研究结果没错误，他认为两个variant是independent(而不是你认定的从加州传到印度）。他第二段话的implication甚至是小cluster例如加州的不太可能被旅行的人传到别的国家去。你引用的数据跟你的claims有矛盾 除此之外，在同一段话里你又连续做了2个unsubstantiated claims, 就是alpha和beta也都是疫苗造成的。这里面的confounding factors 可多了去了，我甚至不知道你能不能建立strong correlation urthur 发表于 2021-06-23 14:54
我从不鼓吹啥 -- 你在这个疫苗贴里已经贴了很多阴谋论和unsubstantiated claims, 还有之前那个把airline operational strain 当成新冠delta strain的贴。也许这不算鼓吹，但确实有非常强烈的pattern 新冠完全没有后遗症也从没说过 -- 这点我从来没提过，不知道你为什么突然说起。我的意思是，作为你口中的别有用心推荐疫苗的原楼主，她其实满严谨，对于只信物理防护的也给建议 again 这样大规模打疫苗 变种的快速到来 是一个expected outcome而已 不要大惊小怪 继续加把火让大家快速打第三针 因为这只会更加速新变种的来临 -- again, 所谓第三针是针对只接种灭活疫苗的老者，这个族群应该相对少。and again, 有没有疫苗都会有变种的，印度没有接种照样不影响B.1.617.2的出现，谢谢。 至于vaccine escape, 这就跟用antibiotic不彻底导致细菌产生抗药性一样，也是为什么大家都这么着急接种自己的公民。提供一个对应的观点，今天搜索关于delta variant信息的时候看到这篇报道 https://www.sfgate.com/coronavirus/article/delta-variant-Marin-County-COVID-San-Anselmo-16267943.php。以下是那个county 公卫部门的总结： "With 90% of the population vaccinated, these outbreaks were limited, " said Marin Health Director Dr. Matt Willis. "In the past these could have easily triggered surges that would have continued to grow. Instead, they were by and large surrounded by individuals who are protected and so the outbreaks died. This is what community immunity is. It’s encouraging to see the protection the vaccine is offering. It’s also a caution that those who are unvaccinated remain vulnerable with the Delta variant circulating." Both outbreaks were controlled within 14 days and are no longer active, the county said. "It offers a glimpse of what the next stage of this pandemic will look like with variants spreading among unvaccinated groups," said Willis. "How widely it spreads is dependent on the number of people in the community who are vaccinated." He added, “When clusters of cases rise and fall quickly among unvaccinated people, and don’t really spread further, this is what herd immunity looks like. We’re seeing what community immunity could look like in Marin. The current cases are among unvaccinated residents, which is why we’re motivated to get closer to 100%.”
我从不鼓吹啥 -- 你在这个疫苗贴里已经贴了很多阴谋论和unsubstantiated claims, 还有之前那个把airline operational strain 当成新冠delta strain的贴。也许这不算鼓吹，但确实有非常强烈的pattern 新冠完全没有后遗症也从没说过 -- 这点我从来没提过，不知道你为什么突然说起。我的意思是，作为你口中的别有用心推荐疫苗的原楼主，她其实满严谨，对于只信物理防护的也给建议 again 这样大规模打疫苗 变种的快速到来 是一个expected outcome而已 不要大惊小怪 继续加把火让大家快速打第三针 因为这只会更加速新变种的来临 -- again, 所谓第三针是针对只接种灭活疫苗的老者，这个族群应该相对少。and again, 有没有疫苗都会有变种的，印度没有接种照样不影响B.1.617.2的出现，谢谢。 至于vaccine escape, 这就跟用antibiotic不彻底导致细菌产生抗药性一样，也是为什么大家都这么着急接种自己的公民。提供一个对应的观点，今天搜索关于delta variant信息的时候看到这篇报道 https://www.sfgate.com/coronavirus/article/delta-variant-Marin-County-COVID-San-Anselmo-16267943.php。以下是那个county 公卫部门的总结： "With 90% of the population vaccinated, these outbreaks were limited, " said Marin Health Director Dr. Matt Willis. "In the past these could have easily triggered surges that would have continued to grow. Instead, they were by and large surrounded by individuals who are protected and so the outbreaks died. This is what community immunity is. It’s encouraging to see the protection the vaccine is offering. It’s also a caution that those who are unvaccinated remain vulnerable with the Delta variant circulating." Both outbreaks were controlled within 14 days and are no longer active, the county said. "It offers a glimpse of what the next stage of this pandemic will look like with variants spreading among unvaccinated groups," said Willis. "How widely it spreads is dependent on the number of people in the community who are vaccinated." He added, “When clusters of cases rise and fall quickly among unvaccinated people, and don’t really spread further, this is what herd immunity looks like. We’re seeing what community immunity could look like in Marin. The current cases are among unvaccinated residents, which is why we’re motivated to get closer to 100%.”
https://virological.org/t/preliminary-genomic-characterisation-of-an-emergent-sars-cov-2-lineage-in-the-uk-defined-by-a-novel-set-of-spike-mutations/563 文章写到： The two earliest sampled genomes that belong to the B.1.1.7 lineage were collected on 20-Sept-2020 in Kent and another on 21-Sept-2020 from Greater London. 也就是说alpha variant最早被察觉是在去年9月份，而不是你说的11个月都没有任何变种。我猜能被RNA sequencing察觉前应该也传播了半个，一个月吧？那时候有什么疫苗呢？ 其次他在推测这个变种可能的来源时引用了一些之前的研究，发现很多变种的出现是在有免疫缺陷的病人被新冠长期感染，并接受新冠治疗例如 convalescent plasma 后。 那他们为什么会被新冠感染呢？难道不是因为当时没有什么有效控制新冠在社区传染的手段，比如管用的疫苗或者严苛的lockdown吗？ High rates of mutation accumulation over short time periods have been reported previously in studies of immunodeficient or immunosuppressed patients who are chronically infected with SARS-CoV-2 (Choi et al. 2020; Avanzato et al. 2020; Kemp et al. 2020). These infections exhibit detectable SARS-CoV-2 RNA for 2-4 months or longer (although there are also reports of long infections in some immunocompetent individuals). The patients are treated with convalescent plasma (sometimes more than once) and usually also with the drug remdesivir. Virus genome sequencing of these infections reveals unusually large numbers of nucleotide changes and deletion mutations and often high ratios of non-synonymous to synonymous changes. Convalescent plasma is often given when patient viral loads are high, and Kemp et al. (2020) report that intra-patient virus genetic diversity increased after plasma treatment was given. These considerations lead us to hypothesise that the unusual genetic divergence of lineage B.1.1.7 may have resulted, at least in part, from virus evolution with a chronically-infected individual. Although such infections are rare, and onward transmission from them presumably even rarer, they are not improbable given the ongoing large number of new infections. （变种之所以传开就是因为疫情不受控) 你这么强烈反疫苗，没关系，那么拜托拜托，请花同等时间推广你所谓的物理隔离吧！更不要淡化社区传播的可怕！
https://virological.org/t/preliminary-genomic-characterisation-of-an-emergent-sars-cov-2-lineage-in-the-uk-defined-by-a-novel-set-of-spike-mutations/563 文章写到： The two earliest sampled genomes that belong to the B.1.1.7 lineage were collected on 20-Sept-2020 in Kent and another on 21-Sept-2020 from Greater London. 也就是说alpha variant最早被察觉是在去年9月份，而不是你说的11个月都没有任何变种。我猜能被RNA sequencing察觉前应该也传播了半个，一个月吧？那时候有什么疫苗呢？ 其次他在推测这个变种可能的来源时引用了一些之前的研究，发现很多变种的出现是在有免疫缺陷的病人被新冠长期感染，并接受新冠治疗例如 convalescent plasma 后。 那他们为什么会被新冠感染呢？难道不是因为当时没有什么有效控制新冠在社区传染的手段，比如管用的疫苗或者严苛的lockdown吗？ High rates of mutation accumulation over short time periods have been reported previously in studies of immunodeficient or immunosuppressed patients who are chronically infected with SARS-CoV-2 (Choi et al. 2020; Avanzato et al. 2020; Kemp et al. 2020). These infections exhibit detectable SARS-CoV-2 RNA for 2-4 months or longer (although there are also reports of long infections in some immunocompetent individuals). The patients are treated with convalescent plasma (sometimes more than once) and usually also with the drug remdesivir. Virus genome sequencing of these infections reveals unusually large numbers of nucleotide changes and deletion mutations and often high ratios of non-synonymous to synonymous changes. Convalescent plasma is often given when patient viral loads are high, and Kemp et al. (2020) report that intra-patient virus genetic diversity increased after plasma treatment was given. These considerations lead us to hypothesise that the unusual genetic divergence of lineage B.1.1.7 may have resulted, at least in part, from virus evolution with a chronically-infected individual. Although such infections are rare, and onward transmission from them presumably even rarer, they are not improbable given the ongoing large number of new infections. （变种之所以传开就是因为疫情不受控) 你这么强烈反疫苗，没关系，那么拜托拜托，请花同等时间推广你所谓的物理隔离吧！更不要淡化社区传播的可怕！ urthur 发表于 2021-06-24 02:53
https://virological.org/t/preliminary-genomic-characterisation-of-an-emergent-sars-cov-2-lineage-in-the-uk-defined-by-a-novel-set-of-spike-mutations/563 文章写到： The two earliest sampled genomes that belong to the B.1.1.7 lineage were collected on 20-Sept-2020 in Kent and another on 21-Sept-2020 from Greater London. 也就是说alpha variant最早被察觉是在去年9月份，而不是你说的11个月都没有任何变种。我猜能被RNA sequencing察觉前应该也传播了半个，一个月吧？那时候有什么疫苗呢？ 其次他在推测这个变种可能的来源时引用了一些之前的研究，发现很多变种的出现是在有免疫缺陷的病人被新冠长期感染，并接受新冠治疗例如 convalescent plasma 后。 那他们为什么会被新冠感染呢？难道不是因为当时没有什么有效控制新冠在社区传染的手段，比如管用的疫苗或者严苛的lockdown吗？ High rates of mutation accumulation over short time periods have been reported previously in studies of immunodeficient or immunosuppressed patients who are chronically infected with SARS-CoV-2 (Choi et al. 2020; Avanzato et al. 2020; Kemp et al. 2020). These infections exhibit detectable SARS-CoV-2 RNA for 2-4 months or longer (although there are also reports of long infections in some immunocompetent individuals). The patients are treated with convalescent plasma (sometimes more than once) and usually also with the drug remdesivir. Virus genome sequencing of these infections reveals unusually large numbers of nucleotide changes and deletion mutations and often high ratios of non-synonymous to synonymous changes. Convalescent plasma is often given when patient viral loads are high, and Kemp et al. (2020) report that intra-patient virus genetic diversity increased after plasma treatment was given. These considerations lead us to hypothesise that the unusual genetic divergence of lineage B.1.1.7 may have resulted, at least in part, from virus evolution with a chronically-infected individual. Although such infections are rare, and onward transmission from them presumably even rarer, they are not improbable given the ongoing large number of new infections. （变种之所以传开就是因为疫情不受控) 你这么强烈反疫苗，没关系，那么拜托拜托，请花同等时间推广你所谓的物理隔离吧！更不要淡化社区传播的可怕！ urthur 发表于 2021-06-24 02:53
你还没解释为什么总是信口开河，不停重复unsubstantiated allgegations。之前不是说去年整整11月都没mutants? 虽然不知为什么你完全当作没看见，再次复制被你之前用来"证明“你阴谋论的作者，他的peer reviewed paper已经根据prior research解释mutants的起源： https://virological.org/t/preliminary-genomic-characterisation-of-an-emergent-sars-cov-2-lineage-in-the-uk-defined-by-a-novel-set-of-spike-mutations/563 很多变种的出现是在有免疫缺陷的病人被新冠长期感染，并接受新冠治疗例如 convalescent plasma 后。 这些人被传染，就是因为当时没有什么有效控制新冠在社区传染的手段，比如管用的疫苗或者严苛的lockdown. 后来迅速传开也是因为没有herd immunity (via vaccine）或者严苛封城 High rates of mutation accumulation over short time periods have been reported previously in studies of immunodeficient or immunosuppressed patients who are chronically infected with SARS-CoV-2 (Choi et al. 2020; Avanzato et al. 2020; Kemp et al. 2020). These infections exhibit detectable SARS-CoV-2 RNA for 2-4 months or longer (although there are also reports of long infections in some immunocompetent individuals). The patients are treated with convalescent plasma (sometimes more than once) and usually also with the drug remdesivir. Virus genome sequencing of these infections reveals unusually large numbers of nucleotide changes and deletion mutations and often high ratios of non-synonymous to synonymous changes. Convalescent plasma is often given when patient viral loads are high, and Kemp et al. (2020) report that intra-patient virus genetic diversity increased after plasma treatment was given.
These considerations lead us to hypothesise that the unusual genetic divergence of lineage B.1.1.7 may have resulted, at least in part, from virus evolution with a chronically-infected individual. Although such infections are rare, and onward transmission from them presumably even rarer, they are not improbable given the ongoing large number of new infections. （变种之所以传开就是因为疫情不受控) 注意谁控诉谁就要举证,就连这位专门研究新冠演变史的人都要引证之前peer reviewed research, 并承认自己的结论是"hypothesis"。也请你一个外门汉学习一下，少信口开河了吧。一点靠谱的证据都没有。
不是据说已经打了8亿了吗？但是估计打到13亿也不敢放开。
嗯 隔壁算有效率的帖子很好的暴露了一些同学小学数学有硬伤
这个神操作！
感觉已经开始了，最近看到好几则关于白宫买疫苗捐赠的新闻。
那国内加油吧。3亿是25%? 到群体免疫还差不少距离，如果灭活如一些新闻讲的保护率不够高，接种率要超过70%。
控制pandemic 就跟控制大火一样，只要一个火星残留就可能卷土重来。关键是大家还不一条心，挑战更艰巨
所以你回国了？那还是专心内卷吧，还翻墙出来操心疫区人民也真是辛苦你了，生活得糟糕到什么程度才会在pandemic上找优越感？
挺好的，不浪费。
On May 17, Biden announced that "over the next six weeks, the United States of America will send 80 million doses overseas". 所以6月底应该送八千万，估计后面更多。
浪不浪费是一回事 这样大规模接种以后 搞不搞得出更🐂的变异又是另一回事了
嗯，那你就别去国际travel了，我觉得5年可能能过去。
某些国内人就靠这点念想，海外都是水深火热。。。
等到自己社区哪天出一两个阳性，被强制隔离在家，物资供应不上，社区发的都是臭肉烂菜时候，也是活该
那么你可以专门单独发帖引用这些数据发表你自己的观点，坚持拿着WHO改前的内容来吓唬那些家里孩子打过疫苗的，就那么有快感么？亏得前面还有人说可能是你没看到所以没更新。
印度没接种所以搞出了delta variant, 跟疫苗没关系。
确实反疫苗人士让superbug 的风险增高了，但是看到躺平先例的下场，比如印度巴西tanzania 的刚过世的前总统，总要继续努力普及疫苗争取群体免疫, 就算不接种但也别轻视这个病毒
这个也不好说 毕竟delta在加州很早就有了
有些事难以两全
我同事2019年底去了一趟欧洲 回来整个办公室重感冒传了一个月
这种claim 不能张口就来的。需要rna sequencing 和比较。而且印度爆是在其他地方之前，即使美国前几天的数据都是delta 比例不超过10%
这个不是张口就来的 我还发过帖子的呢
你错过了
加州确实很早就有了
前些日子还被疫苗专业人士拿来当疫苗有效的证据呢
美国做了sequencing的比例能有多少？应该是很低的，所以到底有多少delta变种根本没有准确数据。
美国做的sequencing应该不多，但不会没有。最多的是英国。 但不论哪个，这两国家都不是delta变种导致医疗系统先爆的那个。。。
可能吧，我最近只看到你那个把airline operational strain讲成delta strain的。。。。
看看 CDC最新公布的一组数据吧 JUST IN - CDC just released its myocarditis/pericarditis update. Post-second dose risk from mRNA COVID-19 vaccines in people under 25 could be over 200x the background rate (not accounting for underreporting).
The post-second dose cases double from age 25 to 21, then double again in the 16-18 range.
https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1407721367580053507
男孩子尤其高发。
这个都是大家猜的。所以说who讨厌，有话不直说，让大家猜来猜去，还一天改八遍。还不如压根儿不说话。也没人把它当哑巴。
那就是女娃可以打喽？有没有fertility 影响方面的数据啊？
这里只说马上能看到的心肌炎， 可没说别的毛病或者长期影响哦
fertility这个 也许12岁还没来大姨妈了吧
应该是开始实验人群没有青少年
那也不能说张口就来啊
你只看delta strain 不看alpha和beta都是疫苗试验区出品的吗？
就连delta strain 也是证明了加州很早就有了的
这种那么简单的事实都讲不通的人 可以自己打疫苗 但是你还大力鼓吹全世界都这么搞 以后就很难说物理防范会不会也突破了
通常情况下 物理防范不容易出变种 疫苗打下去就和Marek disease一样 最后变出超级大bug
证据呢？
你下面的引用的twitter feed都说the variant with spike N417K looks to have arisen independently a number of times. A small cluster in the USA (largely CA) which looks like it may be epidemiologically linked...and a much larger /more genetically diverse cluster seen in countries across the globe
他接下来继续写：If the source cluster is small it is unlikely that travelers will appear in many countries with that particular variant
---------------
也就是说即使这个人的研究结果没错误，他认为两个variant是independent(而不是你认定的从加州传到印度）。他第二段话的implication甚至是小cluster例如加州的不太可能被旅行的人传到别的国家去。你引用的数据跟你的claims有矛盾
除此之外，在同一段话里你又连续做了2个unsubstantiated claims, 就是alpha和beta也都是疫苗造成的。这里面的confounding factors 可多了去了，我甚至不知道你能不能建立strong correlation
我说的是大规模打疫苗容易引起更新更强大的变异 你问证据 证据来了 delta很早就在加州有了
你自己引用的证据都没说加州什么时候出现的，而且也没说加州造成了印度的变种。甚至原推写全世界流行的不是加州变种。跟你的claim矛盾
最后他更没任何一句讲疫苗造成了变种。其实mass transmission容易导致变种早就是常识了，跟疫苗没有关系,你不打疫苗照样有变种，除非全球lockdown足不出户。现在有研究人员确实担心疫苗普及率不够，没办法阻断传播链，造成vaccine escape，但这也不见得就直接等于万一有了这种mutation会更fatal （你第四个unsubstantiated claim)
在隔壁说过了
物理隔断的优势是显见的 传都传不了 咋变异？
打针了 重症变轻症了 还到处溜达 肯定增加变异可能呀
again 我不promote戴口罩 你命你定 我只是说疫苗和变异的关联
那么物理阻断的ideal effective rate是多少？在美国现在这个全部开放环境里的effective rate是多少？比起疫苗如何？ 你觉得什么样的手段足够阻挡新冠？
again, 我从头到尾没有反对戴口罩。就连CDC自己也说vaccinated people在面对免疫力低下的人时应该戴口罩，免疫力低下，以及没有接种的人，自己更应该戴口罩加强防护。你说的疫苗和变异的关联从头到尾都是unsubstantiated
避重就轻了
如果怕变异 物理阻断应该加强
要打疫苗 就要做好不断会有更强的变异出现这个后果
你讲的物理阻断是对谁说的呢？你期待谁能做这些改变呢？我吗？如果是我，那么不用你担心，我们全家都一直很小心，而且也没有染上新冠（敲木头）
至于变不变强是你自己的一个猜想，但肯定会造成疫苗无效，不过疫苗也是可以与时俱进的
PS 从头到尾，你的立场都很坚定，就是反任何情况下打疫苗。 我的立场是：鉴于目前大环境，请自己衡量状况。如果属于high risk，强烈考虑打疫苗吧！如果能全家居家隔离或者都是low risk，不用接种，good for you also!
疫苗本来就是控制疫情强有力的手段，现在你这么努力把这个选项划掉，甚至不惜spread false/misleading info, 那拜托你一定要同样努力去推广物理阻断吧
不防感染是你们空口白话说的，要不要今年诺贝尔生医奖要颁给你们这些反疫苗论者
印度没有大规模种疫苗，但是产生了最强的变种。美国加拿大大规模种疫苗，目前没看到美加变种。
该说的都说了 多说无益
不过我可没说光靠什么就行得通之类的话
现在讲话都流行不看别人发言直接回复了吗
物理防护这种事肯定不是靠你或我一两个人可以改变的
我仅仅是指出 变异主要是大规模打疫苗引起的 这个要有思想准备 也不要天天在那里说不打疫苗才会有变异
当然还有隔壁叫着变异来了 老人快打第三针的肯定不会告诉你 变异本来就是疫苗促发的
again, "变异主要是大规模大疫苗引起的"是你自己unsubstantiated claim. 疫苗本来就是控制疫情强有力的手段，现在你这么努力把这个选项划掉，甚至不惜spread false/misleading info, 那拜托你一定要同样努力去推广物理阻断吧
隔壁楼主是推荐打灭活疫苗的老人再接种一针MRNA的。我觉得这确实是conjecture (risk/benefit没有数据)，就看个人对灭活有多高的信心，能否很好实行物理阻断,以及第三针可能的副作用
大姐，你车轱辘说这些有用吗？这就算是真理定律，在美国和全世界都执行不了有啥意义呢？能一直物理阻断吗？要达到什么阶段才可以恢复正常
不能打疫苗，也不光靠物理防疫，你还有什么绝招？整天在这儿瞎说变异是打疫苗造成的，可那些著名的变种并不起源打疫苗多的地方。有点逻辑吧。
隔壁帖子正好问疫苗不能阻止传染怎么办，快去祭上大招：加强物理隔断！
变异都来了 你再来讲物理隔离 不是太晚了吗
怎么又有灭活？
这位同学语文是体育老师教的？
是呀 我也这么说的啊 delta很早就在加州出现了
刚巧在印度爆发而已
不太懂你的意思，这是已经没话讲开始人身攻击了吗？
原帖关于灭活的话：
发表于：2021-06-23 11:24|只看楼主 热门回复排行第1名 举报|字体大小：T|T8# 回复 1楼little_racoon的帖子
另外补充一点，接种过灭活疫苗之后赴美的老人我觉得可以认真考虑加强一针mRNA疫苗了，对老人来说，混合接种的收益已经明显大于风险。从一些anecdotal data来看，面对delta变种，灭活疫苗不仅对感染的保护作用不好，连对重症/死亡的保护能力也很成问题。印尼最近一段时间由于delta变种造成的350个科兴疫苗breakthrough case里面就有几十个重症住院。这些breakthrough case都是医护人员，这个年龄的重症率本来不应该这么高的。作为对比，新加坡最近发现的120多个breakthrough case里面只有一人需要短暂的吸氧，绝大多数是无症状和轻症。
另一个新闻是最近4个月印尼死于新冠的61名医护人员里面有10人已经完成疫苗接种，也说明类似的问题。(印尼的疫苗接种率很低，fully vaccinated只有4.6%）
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/hundreds-indonesian-doctors-contract-covid-19-despite-vaccination-dozens-2021-06-17/ https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/22/business/economy/china-vaccines-covid-outbreak.html
----- 原帖甚至还贴心的补充，比起拼命鼓吹新冠没后遗症的人好多了：
最后，很多人不愿意打疫苗，对疫苗有concern，我不支持但是理解这种担心。不过如果不打疫苗的话千万千万做好防护，不要去尝试自然免疫，普通的布口罩很难抵挡这种通过气溶胶传播的病毒，室内要戴上N95并且注意不要漏气。打过疫苗的人如果本地感染率高的话，室内也是需要戴口罩的，打过疫苗之后粘膜里面会有很多抗体，只要减弱一点病毒量很可能就不会突破上呼吸道粘膜的防线。CDC的guideline是为了刺激大家打疫苗，毕竟口罩可以重新戴回去，疫苗打了那就是打了不能抽回去。口罩的作用有限不能代替疫苗那是真的，但是这两个并不互相排斥，作为个人还是要加强防护。
我从不鼓吹啥 新冠完全没有后遗症也从没说过
打了疫苗也会轻症或无症状 你可以去调查一下这波的double后遗症
again 这样大规模打疫苗 变种的快速到来 是一个expected outcome而已 不要大惊小怪 继续加把火让大家快速打第三针 因为这只会更加速新变种的来临
你一直暗示Delta 变异最早出现于加州， 因为大规模注射疫苗。 麻烦查一下， Delta 变异最早于2020年12月在印度确认，按你的说法， 加州应该早于去年12月就催化出来了，请问是大规模打哪个疫苗引起的？
我从不鼓吹啥 -- 你在这个疫苗贴里已经贴了很多阴谋论和unsubstantiated claims, 还有之前那个把airline operational strain 当成新冠delta strain的贴。也许这不算鼓吹，但确实有非常强烈的pattern
新冠完全没有后遗症也从没说过 -- 这点我从来没提过，不知道你为什么突然说起。我的意思是，作为你口中的别有用心推荐疫苗的原楼主，她其实满严谨，对于只信物理防护的也给建议
again 这样大规模打疫苗 变种的快速到来 是一个expected outcome而已 不要大惊小怪 继续加把火让大家快速打第三针 因为这只会更加速新变种的来临 -- again, 所谓第三针是针对只接种灭活疫苗的老者，这个族群应该相对少。and again, 有没有疫苗都会有变种的，印度没有接种照样不影响B.1.617.2的出现，谢谢。
至于vaccine escape, 这就跟用antibiotic不彻底导致细菌产生抗药性一样，也是为什么大家都这么着急接种自己的公民。提供一个对应的观点，今天搜索关于delta variant信息的时候看到这篇报道 https://www.sfgate.com/coronavirus/article/delta-variant-Marin-County-COVID-San-Anselmo-16267943.php。以下是那个county 公卫部门的总结：
"With 90% of the population vaccinated, these outbreaks were limited, " said Marin Health Director Dr. Matt Willis. "In the past these could have easily triggered surges that would have continued to grow. Instead, they were by and large surrounded by individuals who are protected and so the outbreaks died. This is what community immunity is. It’s encouraging to see the protection the vaccine is offering. It’s also a caution that those who are unvaccinated remain vulnerable with the Delta variant circulating."
Both outbreaks were controlled within 14 days and are no longer active, the county said.
"It offers a glimpse of what the next stage of this pandemic will look like with variants spreading among unvaccinated groups," said Willis. "How widely it spreads is dependent on the number of people in the community who are vaccinated."
He added, “When clusters of cases rise and fall quickly among unvaccinated people, and don’t really spread further, this is what herd immunity looks like. We’re seeing what community immunity could look like in Marin. The current cases are among unvaccinated residents, which is why we’re motivated to get closer to 100%.”
no no no
我从来没有说过最早来自加州
都那么喜欢曲解别人的发言
你就继续打下去好了 we can agree to disagree
去年一年整整11个月都没有变种
今年半年就一下来了那么多变种 这么确信不打疫苗也会有那么多变种？
你确认去年整整11个月都没变种？英国变种就是用去年九月份的病人样品十一月份检测出耒的。同样巴西变种也是十二份检测出耒。等检测到时一般是滞后了。拜托你能不能别一天扔一个炸弹。
ok
那还是8个月没有一个变种出现 然后10个月一下来了那么多变种
mutation rate为何发生了这么大的变化？
又开始回收再用你那些之前没有任何证据的阴谋论了吗? 这已经是本帖中第四次，还是第五次你在没有任何证据的情况下把变种怪到疫苗上了吧，难道一句话多重复几遍会更有说服力? 这种不负责任复读机式的发帖方式也太容易了。真的跟你之前在airline operational strain等同covid delta strain帖子里的表现一模一样哎。
首先你这个"11个月"的claim就是错的，我稍微查了一下关于alpha variant的文献 (不巧，就在几个楼层前这位作者的twitter还被你用来"证明"delta variant是从加州被带印度或者比印度变种更早。我在"证明”一词上挂上双引号，是因为他的twitter内容还跟你的claim相反)
https://virological.org/t/preliminary-genomic-characterisation-of-an-emergent-sars-cov-2-lineage-in-the-uk-defined-by-a-novel-set-of-spike-mutations/563
文章写到： The two earliest sampled genomes that belong to the B.1.1.7 lineage were collected on 20-Sept-2020 in Kent and another on 21-Sept-2020 from Greater London.
也就是说alpha variant最早被察觉是在去年9月份，而不是你说的11个月都没有任何变种。我猜能被RNA sequencing察觉前应该也传播了半个，一个月吧？那时候有什么疫苗呢？ 其次他在推测这个变种可能的来源时引用了一些之前的研究，发现很多变种的出现是在有免疫缺陷的病人被新冠长期感染，并接受新冠治疗例如 convalescent plasma 后。
那他们为什么会被新冠感染呢？难道不是因为当时没有什么有效控制新冠在社区传染的手段，比如管用的疫苗或者严苛的lockdown吗？
High rates of mutation accumulation over short time periods have been reported previously in studies of immunodeficient or immunosuppressed patients who are chronically infected with SARS-CoV-2 (Choi et al. 2020; Avanzato et al. 2020; Kemp et al. 2020). These infections exhibit detectable SARS-CoV-2 RNA for 2-4 months or longer (although there are also reports of long infections in some immunocompetent individuals). The patients are treated with convalescent plasma (sometimes more than once) and usually also with the drug remdesivir. Virus genome sequencing of these infections reveals unusually large numbers of nucleotide changes and deletion mutations and often high ratios of non-synonymous to synonymous changes. Convalescent plasma is often given when patient viral loads are high, and Kemp et al. (2020) report that intra-patient virus genetic diversity increased after plasma treatment was given.
These considerations lead us to hypothesise that the unusual genetic divergence of lineage B.1.1.7 may have resulted, at least in part, from virus evolution with a chronically-infected individual. Although such infections are rare, and onward transmission from them presumably even rarer, they are not improbable given the ongoing large number of new infections. （变种之所以传开就是因为疫情不受控)
你这么强烈反疫苗，没关系，那么拜托拜托，请花同等时间推广你所谓的物理隔离吧！更不要淡化社区传播的可怕！
这是现身说法复读机么？
还是说没有合理解释 直接用大水灌死别人？
请问去年下半年发生了什么 让原本以为不会变异的新冠开始mutants频出？
你还没解释为什么总是信口开河，不停重复unsubstantiated allgegations。之前不是说去年整整11月都没mutants?
虽然不知为什么你完全当作没看见，再次复制被你之前用来"证明“你阴谋论的作者，他的peer reviewed paper已经根据prior research解释mutants的起源：
https://virological.org/t/preliminary-genomic-characterisation-of-an-emergent-sars-cov-2-lineage-in-the-uk-defined-by-a-novel-set-of-spike-mutations/563
很多变种的出现是在有免疫缺陷的病人被新冠长期感染，并接受新冠治疗例如 convalescent plasma 后。 这些人被传染，就是因为当时没有什么有效控制新冠在社区传染的手段，比如管用的疫苗或者严苛的lockdown. 后来迅速传开也是因为没有herd immunity (via vaccine）或者严苛封城
High rates of mutation accumulation over short time periods have been reported previously in studies of immunodeficient or immunosuppressed patients who are chronically infected with SARS-CoV-2 (Choi et al. 2020; Avanzato et al. 2020; Kemp et al. 2020). These infections exhibit detectable SARS-CoV-2 RNA for 2-4 months or longer (although there are also reports of long infections in some immunocompetent individuals). The patients are treated with convalescent plasma (sometimes more than once) and usually also with the drug remdesivir. Virus genome sequencing of these infections reveals unusually large numbers of nucleotide changes and deletion mutations and often high ratios of non-synonymous to synonymous changes. Convalescent plasma is often given when patient viral loads are high, and Kemp et al. (2020) report that intra-patient virus genetic diversity increased after plasma treatment was given.
These considerations lead us to hypothesise that the unusual genetic divergence of lineage B.1.1.7 may have resulted, at least in part, from virus evolution with a chronically-infected individual. Although such infections are rare, and onward transmission from them presumably even rarer, they are not improbable given the ongoing large number of new infections. （变种之所以传开就是因为疫情不受控)
注意谁控诉谁就要举证,就连这位专门研究新冠演变史的人都要引证之前peer reviewed research, 并承认自己的结论是"hypothesis"。也请你一个外门汉学习一下，少信口开河了吧。一点靠谱的证据都没有。