乔治亚州选举民主党要赢了，股指期货跌惨了 - 2021年1月6日北美华人网存档

CNBC 分析摘要
MARKET INSIDER
Here’s what’s at stake for markets in the Georgia Senate runoff elections
The stock market could take an initial hit if Democrats pull off a surprise victory in Georgia’s runoff election.
But market strategists expect the market could then respond to the prospect of more stimulus spending by Democrats, and that would cause a sell-off in bonds and drive a rotation into cyclical and value stocks.
If Georgia voters surprise the market by electing two Democratic senators in Tuesday’s runoff election, bond yields could immediately go higher and stocks could sell off.
The stock market, however, could seesaw as investors weigh the risk of tax increases against the prospect for more government spending to boost the economy. Some strategists say it may not prove negative for the market for long and there could be another big rotation toward the stocks that would do well with more fiscal stimulus and infrastructure spending.
“I’m kind of negative on it if it turns totally Democrat. I think the market has a bad reaction to that initially,” said James Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Leuthold Group. “I don’t think it’s going to end the bull. ... Eventually, we’re going to get a catalyst to create a correction anyway, and that could be it. There’s a lot of people out there that think it’s a positive because it could bring more fiscal juice.”
Rates higher?
″[Historically] stocks go down for a few days if there’s a Democratic sweep,” said Michael Schumacher, director of rates at Wells Fargo. “I think the stock call is tougher but the bond call is easy in a way. ... The bond people figure more spending, bigger deficits, more [Treasury] supply.”
That should push interest rates higher, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising above the psychological ceiling of 1%. Schumacher expects the benchmark Treasury yield to hit a near-term high of 1.05% if Democrats win.
Higher taxes?
Regardless of which party wins, stimulus spending is expected, but Democrats would approve a much bigger plan. But there is debate about how much and when Democrats would press for higher taxes, if they did have control.
“I think the likely outcome would be a watered-down Biden agenda, if they have a sweep,” said Andy Laperriere, head of policy at Cornerstone Macro. Laperriere said he expects tax increases could be on the agenda this year, and they would likely pass the Senate and squeak by the House.
If Democrats win, Laperriere expects Biden to push through a $2 trillion spending plan, but if the GOP continues to hold the majority, there would be no tax hikes and the spending plan would be much smaller.
“I think alternative energy and infrastructure are the winners if the Democrats win,” said Laperriere. “Tech companies that play low tax rates and drug companies are the losers. It’s more likely the Democrats would reduce reimbursement rates.”

af_nyc

4 年多

很熟悉的调调，不久之前11月的时候好像说的是要是拜登当选，401就要跌成shi了

CleverBeaver

4 年多