That's why I am not surprised if Trump wins. Look at Star Wars. The dark side still rules the universe. USA, as many Trump supporters here said, is still predominantly a White country. And the global COVID pandemic is actually hurting people's confidence in globalization.
It is really unfortunate. Kinda reminds of me the Star Wars. Hope USA will not end up in a Civil War. May the force be with Biden. doorsopen 发表于 2020-11-02 00:35
That's why I am not surprised if Trump wins. Look at Star Wars. The dark side still rules the universe. USA, as many Trump supporters here said, is still predominantly a White country. And the global COVID pandemic is actually hurting people's confidence in globalization. doorsopen 发表于 2020-11-02 00:39
I think the electoral college system is also problematic. It basically says that the minority group in a state will never have a say in important matters. The winner takes all method makes it that much harder to shift the bad culture of a society. It essentially supports the Tyranny of the Majority as we see now.
I think the electoral college system is also problematic. It basically says that the minority group in a state will never have a say in important matters. The winner takes all method makes it that much harder to shift the bad culture of a society. It essentially supports the Tyranny of the Majority as we see now. doorsopen 发表于 2020-11-02 00:46
That's why I am not surprised if Trump wins. Look at Star Wars. The dark side still rules the universe. USA, as many Trump supporters here said, is still predominantly a White country. And the global COVID pandemic is actually hurting people's confidence in globalization. doorsopen 发表于 2020-11-02 00:39
童鞋们要有信心 Well, all that I am saying is that people need to vote Democrat at all levels in order to vote Trump or Trumpism out. I am a firm believer that at least ACB will endorse Trump no matter what.
I think the electoral college system is also problematic. It basically says that the minority group in a state will never have a say in important matters. The winner takes all method makes it that much harder to shift the bad culture of a society. It essentially supports the Tyranny of the Majority as we see now. doorsopen 发表于 2020-11-02 00:46
It requires so much courage to choose the bright side. Darth vader turned to the dark side because of his fears. The COVID pandemic brings about a lot of fears in people. I will have so much more respect of the American society if Biden wins!
Not really. Look at Canada. It is a parliamentary system. In the parliament, you can have big parties like Conservatives and Liberal. You also have small parties like the Green party. Guess what, Green party can influence important issues too if the competition is so tight and one vote difference can make decision. I prefer a parliamentary system.
It requires so much courage to choose the bright side. Darth vader turned to the dark side because of his fears. The COVID pandemic brings about a lot of fears in people. I will have so much more respect of the American society if Biden wins! doorsopen 发表于 2020-11-02 00:59
Not really. Look at Canada. It is a parliamentary system. In the parliament, you can have big parties like Conservatives and Liberal. You also have small parties like the Green party. Guess what, Green party can influence important issues too if the competition is so tight and one vote difference can make decision. I prefer a parliamentary system. doorsopen 发表于 2020-11-02 01:06
Canada has its problems too. I have yet to find a perfect system. But the American system is losing its check and balance now. It is very scary because USA is still the single super power.
It does not matter. Trump does speak to the fact that many people blame China for it. He is evil and feeds off negative energy. doorsopen 发表于 2020-11-02 01:16
Canada has its problems too. I have yet to find a perfect system. But the American system is losing its check and balance now. It is very scary because USA is still the single super power. doorsopen 发表于 2020-11-02 01:23
That's why I am not surprised if Trump wins. Look at Star Wars. The dark side still rules the universe. USA, as many Trump supporters here said, is still predominantly a White country. And the global COVID pandemic is actually hurting people's confidence in globalization. doorsopen 发表于 2020-11-02 00:39
你确定你看过 Star Wars? 里面 Senator Palpatine 可是慈眉善目解救危局出现的，长的都像拜登。
Not necessarily hate China. But many people instinctively blame others when things go wrong. Empathy and self awareness are the traits of a saint... doorsopen 发表于 2020-11-02 01:38
川粉很多并没有自食其果，因为他们就是男性+白人。他们正在实现他们觉得的梦想呢。可以公然种族歧视，可以公然性别歧视，可以公然控制女人的子宫，多妙啊！所以他们还是要选大统领，狂热的要选大统领。
I feel the same way. Stay safe my friend. Hope the Chinese community thrives no matter what.
That's why I am not surprised if Trump wins. Look at Star Wars. The dark side still rules the universe. USA, as many Trump supporters here said, is still predominantly a White country. And the global COVID pandemic is actually hurting people's confidence in globalization.
美国的民主依然是世界上最好的民主制度，但很不幸，今年以来，我看到了它的很多缺点。任何体制平衡一段时间以后都会从内部崩溃，真心希望美国的民主制度依然能够保持先贤的精神。
哈哈😄
我家属看到这个回复，一定会说：That’s a movie
谢谢！
动乱的时局还有瘟疫，大家都保平安！
童鞋们要有信心
这里看到楼主认真问预测 回答一个我自己的看法 看很多民调的crosstab和现在early voting的trend 今年民调可能还是不准 低估了有学位白人的turnout 总有人觉得民调不准一定是向民主党偏 其实2012和2018都是偏GOP这边了...
周二就知道结果了 没必要吵个没完
那你这颗老白菜回她干啥？你不就正在把她当根葱吗？
我问他为什么？
他说，庆祝川普败选呀。
我说，那万一他获胜了呢？
他说，那我大概需要宿醉一宿
同祝愿
I think the electoral college system is also problematic. It basically says that the minority group in a state will never have a say in important matters. The winner takes all method makes it that much harder to shift the bad culture of a society. It essentially supports the Tyranny of the Majority as we see now.
做B是你家主子强项，舔菊无底线，还是个老头菊
I think movies pretty reflect the reality nowadays! I draw so much inspiration from the Purge and Star Wars!
哈哈哈哈538那个2018年中期选举就是，one of the most accurate poll，结果实际dems还beat了最高的那个预测
可是一人一票还是多数对少数的暴政
这件事更难解决
其实不难解决高院的问题。加个term limit就可以，大法官统一18年任期，每届总统提名两个，再公平不过。
他赢我也不惊讶。人类历史上，文明的存在时间，要比黑暗存在的时间短得多。因为文明需要自制和克制，但是黑暗只需要释放人性的恶，so easy!
减税大部分进了超级富豪腰包，回头让你子孙还，除非你断子绝孙。 中东哪和平了？你长眼睛了吗？
哈哈 作为同好的我忍不住要握个爪
童鞋们要有信心
Well, all that I am saying is that people need to vote Democrat at all levels in order to vote Trump or Trumpism out. I am a firm believer that at least ACB will endorse Trump no matter what.
Sending you a lot of love too!
都什么年代了，居然还有一帮大老爷们成天打女人子宫的主意，还推出女代表专门反对女性自由选择权，哎。
佛州是个“小美国” 各种选民特点的county都有 老人多的 富庶郊区白领的 白人蓝领的 各种西语裔的 黑人的 等等 所以佛州一出结果 可以判断民调今年对各种group的turnout和D/R比例的预测准不准
2012当时民调偏罗姆尼 佛州一出结果 发现少数族裔的turnout比较高 FOX就开始认真讨论接下来四年咋整了 2016一样 老人村和蓝领郡一出来 CNN就虚了
今年就看老人村 现在的民调预测拜登胜利主要的根据是老人对比2016向拜登swing多个点 - 老人turnout一直高 其次就看看富庶郊区是否能保持2018年向DEM的swing幅度
其实能不能当晚出结果看的是是否提前数票 北卡佛州都是提前多天就开始数票 中西部不提前数票所以出结果才慢 和是不是邮寄选票其实关系不大
说出了我的心里话
Hahaha, I think it is a good idea to hunker down for two weeks or so. Wine is a great idea for sure.
这还用说吗，性别歧视比种族歧视更广泛存在，那个分享里说racial slur的是个新奥尔良洲的印度裔我一点也不奇怪，印度的本土文化就有深植的男尊女卑，travel到新奥尔良州得到共鸣呗。 没办法，整个国家需要start healing，biden说的没错。
我想上去骂他们！呵呵！
https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2020/05/28/trump-twitter-by-numbers/
确实有问题，由几个摇摆州决定。。。
不过按照总票数决定，也不科学，容易造成多数人对少数人的暴政，你看你都觉得州内部这样有问题，那从全国来说，就更有问题了。
pa和nc咋办，结果会出的很慢。今天trump的顾问已经上abc说了当晚只要这几个州票多就宣布拿下了，当晚直接可以宣布当选了
That's the innate problem of democracy. I prefer the parliamentary system. It allows smaller political parties to grow and have a say.
说起来，the twilight zone第一季里面讲小孩当总统那集，是不是讽刺川普的啊？
the Purge我看了一点点，没看完。这么多人讨论，打算再看看去。
同意。终身制权力太大了！
It requires so much courage to choose the bright side. Darth vader turned to the dark side because of his fears. The COVID pandemic brings about a lot of fears in people. I will have so much more respect of the American society if Biden wins!
high five!
哈哈哈
你说那个给情妇下堕胎药的SB混蛋么？ 听他扯个屁 我的意思是看FL和NC就可以predict出票慢的州了 一调整模型就好 所以当晚就能心里有数 除非非常close否则大家都知道如何
他爱宣布宣布 就看FOX底线了
现在各路搞政治的人马就连记者什么的各种人都在冲向PA驻扎当地 PA当天投票会不会动家伙我看都悬
PA现在州政府控制住民主党手里 州秘书是民主党人 他说了到时候两个number都公布 已经点的 和还没有点的 美国人民也不都是傻子
回过头来说 我觉得大概率根本不需要PA 别的州就会定了 不过看着吧
有一类女性，信仰自己是男性的附属，圣经也是这么教导的，要顺从。
“你们做妻子的，当顺服自己的丈夫，如同顺服主”
6月份猪党鼓动Antifa和BLM全国范围的游行示威打砸抢，defund police，这么快就忘了？还好意思甩锅？！
Not really. Look at Canada. It is a parliamentary system. In the parliament, you can have big parties like Conservatives and Liberal. You also have small parties like the Green party. Guess what, Green party can influence important issues too if the competition is so tight and one vote difference can make decision. I prefer a parliamentary system.
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I have not watched it yet... Sorry.
给大家梳理一下北卡的情况，稳了，躺赢，话放这。。。。。 军事天地 75/7225
总统是一票一票选出来的。稳了，躺赢，话放这。。。。。这种嘴炮真的没啥意思。吃屎咪还整天想拉人陪他吃屎，真是屎多不愁啊。还是先看看数据，然后再用屁股思考吧。这样输赢都不要搞得好像很震惊的样子。
昨天是提前投票的最后一天。个人投已经结束。今年的情况大家不会拖到最后一分钟再寄选票，所以应该说邮寄的选票也收到的差不多了。而且北卡是个人投票远远多于邮寄。所以现在就还剩周二的一锤子买卖了。
感谢stud提供的网站可以看到北卡的最新结果。这个是最靠谱的。现在的结果是这样的。提前投票总数大约四百五十万。民主党领先25万。其中邮寄领先23万，个人投票领先两万。然后北卡还有接近一百万的无党派选民提前投票。这些人的票投谁会比较有意思。
北卡总共的选票七百三十万。所以池子就这么大。投票率一般就是六成多。今年肯定是不止，算个75%。有个五百五十万。所以大概周二也就剩个一百万票最多了。先不说这 个无党派的，如果共和党要想填平这个25万的坑，周二就得要四六开朝上的比例才行。这个我没有北卡历年投票日当天的投票比例。这个共和党肯定多，但是多多少不知道，感觉这个坑不算浅。
至于说什么20%民主党去投川普的，这个就是瞎扯加意淫了。拜登这个人四平八稳，在 党内没有什么敌人。不象当年西粉和三粉恨不得能打起来。所以民主党的票跑不了多少。要真说跳船，尼玛川普把个国家搞得这么个鸡飞狗跳的，20%共和党这次去投民主党 还更可能一点，包括我。所以这个就不考虑了。不影响大局。
那么北卡的情况，光靠共和党周二追回来25万，可能性不大。能拉近一些。剩下的，其实就是看那一百万无党派的选民是怎么选了。只有这些人大比例支持川普那共和党还有点希望翻盘。这些人怎么投，我觉得主要其实就是看这两件事，或者说两件半吧。
第一是BLM运动和其后的打砸抢。BLM本身还好，大部分的抗议是和平抗议，抗议的内容也还不算离谱。但是打砸抢就过界了。这里面总统固然有火上浇油的问题，但是打砸抢的主力是老黑，这个是民主党的票仓，所以这个事情是肯定对民主党不利的。
第二就是疫情的问题。这个问题上，川普完败。他现在已经对这个问题避而不谈了。就是甩锅。现在居然已经甩到医生多报死亡能多挣钱的份上了。普通人没有8克抗体的待 遇，得了就得自己扛。也许就是生死的区别。这个事情对川普是命门。当然不怕死或者不相信这事的也有，但是这个不会是主流。看看这里叫的震天响的川粉有几个敢去川普的拉力也就有数了。
再有的半件，就是全民医保了。北卡今年参议员竞争激烈。全民医保是最大的争论焦点。至于卡宁汉搞女人这种事，现在都顾不过来管了。北卡州长倒是应该没什么悬念，共和党的那个阿甘，尼玛就是一个弱智加SB。绝对是来加负分的。这个事情从人性的角度，特别是对那些有precondition的人来讲，对民主党有利。我在这个事情上也是站在民主党这一边的。
这几件事，我相信那一百万的无党派投票，会有一个一边倒的结果。所以周二这些票一开，北卡的情况应该就明朗了。周二应该就知道结果了。我不觉得需要上高法。这是我用屁股得出来的结论。就等周二验证了。
从我个人角度来讲，现在的当务之急是控制疫情恢复正常生活。这事谁能干的更好我就选谁。川普有将近一年的时间来应对但是结果啥样子大家也看到了。如果他再干四年，恐怕就是现在这样半死不活地拖着等病毒自生自灭。所以这次选举也好，算是美国人民给他投个信任票。如果美国人民认可他这么干，那我也无话可说，只能自己管好自己的小家。随他折腾吧。但是我还是相信美国人民的判断力的。如果第一次被骗了还是可以接受的，但是四年搞得鸡飞狗跳，国家分裂，疫情又彻底暴露川普自大反智无能，作为大boss除了甩锅就是甩锅，这样的人要都还能接着干，我靠，我支持习大大想干多久就干多久。
说点题外话，从今年川普拉力的观众来看，清一色的白人。2016的时候还有些老黑和美华，今年我是没见着。川普能上台，就是靠煽动白人至上，民粹主义。这帮人不戴口罩，不信病毒。明明知道这种大型集会是病毒传播的最佳途径川普仍然搞，就是要把这帮人稳住。这些人的票能不能再次让川普连任，恐怕也就知道美国人民到底有多少是反智的。美华支持川普的，川普其实就一句话，你也配姓赵？我希望今年拜登上台，干个四年，把美国从这个屎坑里先拉出来。四年以后，共和党推出个中规中矩的人来，我还是会回到共和党这一边的。
周二，拭目以待吧，希望有一个新的开始。。。。。。。。。。
几年前看使女第一季时，还觉得这作者可能扯。现在这一步步倒退的，大统领再搞4年，美帝变Gilead不是梦啊。
写得好。我支持共和党的财政政策。反对高福利。 川铺搞种族分裂，就这一条，我坚决反对川普。 反正我的票也投了。现在周二拭目以待吧。
That's why we have Rey. She is female and comes from nowhere. But she is the last Jedi.
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我觉得covid带来的fear不够，fear要是够大，人们就自觉了！
zan ~~~
基本说出了我想说的，希望今年川普下台，四年后换个正常的共和党上台
It does not matter. Trump does speak to the fact that many people blame China for it. He is evil and feeds off negative energy.
哈哈，说的太实在了，性格和疫情那简直就是最大的硬伤，大白再硬的伤都没这硬
真的是
lol
👍👍👍
这个听起来确实不错。美国要是不止两党独大，挺好。
Night night. Go to bed now. May the force be with us. :-)
之前说德州的biden/Harris bus被trump supporter的pickup truck弄得差点翻车什么的。今天看了视频，那bus自己占了2条道，走在白线中间，紧贴后面的白色van占道才导致车祸发生。幸亏有不同角度的2个视频，不然真是窦娥冤！可见现在黑白颠倒有多严重！
Canada has its problems too. I have yet to find a perfect system. But the American system is losing its check and balance now. It is very scary because USA is still the single super power.
最高法院这个事情，可能的确会引起未来女性权益的倒退。
不过也不需要太悲观，现在已经不是不开化的年代了，很多女性都认识到了自己有权益，面临压迫会去战斗去争取。
不会缺少战斗的人的。女性解放的精神薪火相传，生生不息！才有萤火之光的时候都已经有前辈披荆斩棘，现在星光璀璨的时候不用恐惧。
Well said. I am gonna go night night now and go silent for a few days. May the force be with us!
有一部分人对中国的怨恨完全是被川普挑起来的，自己抗疫无能，就甩锅中国。
没有完美的制度。
如果从最悲观的角度来看，美国的制度如果真的从内部崩溃，那么，这就是三战的开端。
I have been to some toxic work environments. Let me tell you, bad people are everywhere...
嗯，早点休息！:-)
Likely. Wars nowadays can look very different.
是，有些人本身就仇恨中国，有没有川普都仇恨中国。
我的意思是说，有一部分人，就是被川普忽悠的。
你确定你看过 Star Wars?
里面 Senator Palpatine 可是慈眉善目解救危局出现的，长的都像拜登。
嗯，早点休息吧，我也准备睡觉了，哈哈。
Not necessarily hate China. But many people instinctively blame others when things go wrong. Empathy and self awareness are the traits of a saint...
深蓝州大城市到底怕谁来砸? interesting question......
这个我同意你，这种行为太常见了。
Of course not. You can believe in whatever you want to believe in. I do not give a damn.
NIght night!
另一个回帖我说我被无故删帖了，结果又被删了，这川粉能耐这么大呢？这是把论坛买断了是怎么着？？
对啊，干嘛不干脆出个poll?别的华人网都出poll.
这个规格，和当初黑命贵按提法打砸抢一摸一样，只不过这次是提前预防而不是事后补救。。蓝州川粉都是少数。。。city 住的都是人精，太明显不过了。。
怎么可能，民主党独裁吗，那是绝对不可能。你们是不是平时都自己做梦不看中性poll
喝完酒打老婆，loser就是这么来的。
这个好的太夸张了。。。不管如何，川普肯定赢
移民，很多人已经计划了。不久美国就是pre 委内瑞拉状态。。
看的时候老船才0，38， 现在买也赢不了多少钱。。Trump 100% 赢，没有悬念
围观你滚蛋
今天有个蓝州牧师居然谈论选举，说不要从经济角度考虑，呵呵，点踩的比赞的多