Exclusive: Internal Chinese report warns Beijing faces Tiananmen-like global backlash over virus
BEIJING (Reuters) - An internal Chinese report warns that Beijing faces a rising wave of hostility in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak that could tip relations with the United States into confrontation, people familiar with the paper told Reuters.
The report, presented early last month by the Ministry of State Security to top Beijing leaders including President Xi Jinping, concluded that global anti-China sentiment is at its highest since the 1989 Tiananmen Square crackdown, the sources said.
As a result, Beijing faces a wave of anti-China sentiment led by the United States in the aftermath of the pandemic and needs to be prepared in a worst-case scenario for armed confrontation between the two global powers, according to people familiar with the report’s content, who declined to be identified given the sensitivity of the matter.
The report was drawn up by the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR), a think tank affiliated with the Ministry of State Security, China’s top intelligence body.
Reuters has not seen the briefing paper, but it was described by people who had direct knowledge of its findings.
“I don’t have relevant information,” the Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson’s office said in a statement responding to questions from Reuters on the report.
China’s Ministry of State Security has no public contact details and could not be reached for comment.
CICIR, an influential think tank that until 1980 was within the Ministry of State Security and advises the Chinese government on foreign and security policy, did not reply to a request for comment.
Reuters couldn’t determine to what extent the stark assessment described in the paper reflects positions held by China’s state leaders, and to what extent, if at all, it would influence policy. But the presentation of the report shows how seriously Beijing takes the threat of a building backlash that could threaten what China sees as its strategic investments overseas and its view of its security standing.
Relations between China and the United States are widely seen to be at their worst point in decades, with deepening mistrust and friction points from U.S. allegations of unfair trade and technology practices to disputes over Hong Kong, Taiwan and contested territories in the South China Sea.
In recent days, U.S. President Donald Trump, facing a more difficult re-election campaign as the coronavirus has claimed tens of thousands of American lives and ravaged the U.S. economy, has been ramping up his criticism of Beijing and threatening new tariffs on China. His administration, meanwhile, is considering retaliatory measures against China over the outbreak, officials said.
It is widely believed in Beijing that the United States wants to contain a rising China, which has become more assertive globally as its economy has grown.
The paper concluded that Washington views China’s rise as an economic and national security threat and a challenge to Western democracies, the people said. The report also said the United States was aiming to undercut the ruling Communist Party by undermining public confidence.
Chinese officials had a “special responsibility” to inform their people and the world of the threat posed by the coronavirus “since they were the first to learn of it,” U.S. State Department spokeswoman Morgan Ortagus said in response to questions from Reuters.
Without directly addressing the assessment made in the Chinese report, Ortagus added: “Beijing’s efforts to silence scientists, journalists, and citizens and spread disinformation exacerbated the dangers of this health crisis.”
A spokesman for the U.S. National Security Council declined to comment.
REPERCUSSIONS
The report described to Reuters warned that anti-China sentiment sparked by the coronavirus could fuel resistance to China’s Belt and Road infrastructure investment projects, and that Washington could step up financial and military support for regional allies, making the security situation in Asia more volatile.
Three decades ago, in the aftermath of Tiananmen, the United States and many Western governments imposed sanctions against China including banning or restricting arms sales and technology transfers.
China is far more powerful nowadays.
Xi has revamped China’s military strategy to create a fighting force equipped to win modern wars. He is expanding China’s air and naval reach in a challenge to more than 70 years of U.S. military dominance in Asia.
In its statement, China’s foreign ministry called for cooperation, saying, “the sound and steady development of China-U.S. relations” serve the interests of both countries and the international community.
It added: “any words or actions that engage in political manipulation or stigmatization under the pretext of the pandemic, including taking the opportunity to sow discord between countries, are not conducive to international cooperation against the pandemic.”
COLD WAR ECHOES
One of those with knowledge of the report said it was regarded by some in the Chinese intelligence community as China’s version of the “Novikov Telegram”, a 1946 dispatch by the Soviet ambassador to Washington, Nikolai Novikov, that stressed the dangers of U.S. economic and military ambition in the wake of World War Two.
Novikov’s missive was a response to U.S. diplomat George Kennan’s “Long Telegram” from Moscow that said the Soviet Union did not see the possibility for peaceful coexistence with the West, and that containment was the best long-term strategy.
The two documents helped set the stage for the strategic thinking that defined both sides of the Cold War.
China has been accused by the United States of suppressing early information on the virus, which was first detected in the central city of Wuhan, and downplaying its risks.
Beijing has repeatedly denied that it covered up the extent or severity of the virus outbreak.
China has managed to contain domestic spread of the virus and has been trying to assert a leading role in the global battle against COVID-19. That has included a propaganda push around its donations and sale of medical supplies to the United States and other countries and sharing of expertise.
But China faces a growing backlash from critics who have called to hold Beijing accountable for its role in the pandemic.
Trump has said he will cut off funding for the World Health Organization (WHO), which he called “very China-centric,” something WHO officials have denied.
Australia’s government has called for an international investigation into the origins and spread of the virus.
Last month, France summoned China’s ambassador to protest a publication on the website of China’s embassy that criticized Western handling of coronavirus.
The virus has so far infected more than 3 million people globally and caused more than 200,000 deaths, according to a Reuters tally.
回复 1楼roott的帖子The report, presented early last month by the Ministry of State Security to top Beijing leaders including President Xi Jinping, concluded that global anti-China sentiment is at its highest since the 1989 Tiananmen Square crackdown, the sources said.
Xi has revamped China’s military strategy to create a fighting force equipped to win modern wars. He is expanding China’s air and naval reach in a challenge to more than 70 years of U.S. military dominance in Asia.
In its statement, China’s foreign ministry called for cooperation, saying, “the sound and steady development of China-U.S. relations” serve the interests of both countries and the international community.
It added: “any words or actions that engage in political manipulation or stigmatization under the pretext of the pandemic, including taking the opportunity to sow discord between countries, are not conducive to international cooperation against the pandemic.”
BEIJING (Reuters) - An internal Chinese report warns that Beijing faces a rising wave of hostility in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak that could tip relations with the United States into confrontation, people familiar with the paper told Reuters.
The report, presented early last month by the Ministry of State Security to top Beijing leaders including President Xi Jinping, concluded that global anti-China sentiment is at its highest since the 1989 Tiananmen Square crackdown, the sources said.
As a result, Beijing faces a wave of anti-China sentiment led by the United States in the aftermath of the pandemic and needs to be prepared in a worst-case scenario for armed confrontation between the two global powers, according to people familiar with the report’s content, who declined to be identified given the sensitivity of the matter.
The report was drawn up by the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR), a think tank affiliated with the Ministry of State Security, China’s top intelligence body.
Reuters has not seen the briefing paper, but it was described by people who had direct knowledge of its findings.
“I don’t have relevant information,” the Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson’s office said in a statement responding to questions from Reuters on the report.
China’s Ministry of State Security has no public contact details and could not be reached for comment.
CICIR, an influential think tank that until 1980 was within the Ministry of State Security and advises the Chinese government on foreign and security policy, did not reply to a request for comment.
Reuters couldn’t determine to what extent the stark assessment described in the paper reflects positions held by China’s state leaders, and to what extent, if at all, it would influence policy. But the presentation of the report shows how seriously Beijing takes the threat of a building backlash that could threaten what China sees as its strategic investments overseas and its view of its security standing.
Relations between China and the United States are widely seen to be at their worst point in decades, with deepening mistrust and friction points from U.S. allegations of unfair trade and technology practices to disputes over Hong Kong, Taiwan and contested territories in the South China Sea.
In recent days, U.S. President Donald Trump, facing a more difficult re-election campaign as the coronavirus has claimed tens of thousands of American lives and ravaged the U.S. economy, has been ramping up his criticism of Beijing and threatening new tariffs on China. His administration, meanwhile, is considering retaliatory measures against China over the outbreak, officials said.
It is widely believed in Beijing that the United States wants to contain a rising China, which has become more assertive globally as its economy has grown.
The paper concluded that Washington views China’s rise as an economic and national security threat and a challenge to Western democracies, the people said. The report also said the United States was aiming to undercut the ruling Communist Party by undermining public confidence.
Chinese officials had a “special responsibility” to inform their people and the world of the threat posed by the coronavirus “since they were the first to learn of it,” U.S. State Department spokeswoman Morgan Ortagus said in response to questions from Reuters.
Without directly addressing the assessment made in the Chinese report, Ortagus added: “Beijing’s efforts to silence scientists, journalists, and citizens and spread disinformation exacerbated the dangers of this health crisis.”
A spokesman for the U.S. National Security Council declined to comment.
REPERCUSSIONS
The report described to Reuters warned that anti-China sentiment sparked by the coronavirus could fuel resistance to China’s Belt and Road infrastructure investment projects, and that Washington could step up financial and military support for regional allies, making the security situation in Asia more volatile.
Three decades ago, in the aftermath of Tiananmen, the United States and many Western governments imposed sanctions against China including banning or restricting arms sales and technology transfers.
China is far more powerful nowadays.
Xi has revamped China’s military strategy to create a fighting force equipped to win modern wars. He is expanding China’s air and naval reach in a challenge to more than 70 years of U.S. military dominance in Asia.
In its statement, China’s foreign ministry called for cooperation, saying, “the sound and steady development of China-U.S. relations” serve the interests of both countries and the international community.
It added: “any words or actions that engage in political manipulation or stigmatization under the pretext of the pandemic, including taking the opportunity to sow discord between countries, are not conducive to international cooperation against the pandemic.”
COLD WAR ECHOES
One of those with knowledge of the report said it was regarded by some in the Chinese intelligence community as China’s version of the “Novikov Telegram”, a 1946 dispatch by the Soviet ambassador to Washington, Nikolai Novikov, that stressed the dangers of U.S. economic and military ambition in the wake of World War Two.
Novikov’s missive was a response to U.S. diplomat George Kennan’s “Long Telegram” from Moscow that said the Soviet Union did not see the possibility for peaceful coexistence with the West, and that containment was the best long-term strategy.
The two documents helped set the stage for the strategic thinking that defined both sides of the Cold War.
China has been accused by the United States of suppressing early information on the virus, which was first detected in the central city of Wuhan, and downplaying its risks.
Beijing has repeatedly denied that it covered up the extent or severity of the virus outbreak.
China has managed to contain domestic spread of the virus and has been trying to assert a leading role in the global battle against COVID-19. That has included a propaganda push around its donations and sale of medical supplies to the United States and other countries and sharing of expertise.
But China faces a growing backlash from critics who have called to hold Beijing accountable for its role in the pandemic.
Trump has said he will cut off funding for the World Health Organization (WHO), which he called “very China-centric,” something WHO officials have denied.
Australia’s government has called for an international investigation into the origins and spread of the virus.
Last month, France summoned China’s ambassador to protest a publication on the website of China’s embassy that criticized Western handling of coronavirus.
The virus has so far infected more than 3 million people globally and caused more than 200,000 deaths, according to a Reuters tally.
🔥 最新回帖
估计很难
什么外交教父啊，钱早都被美国收编成线人了。
这次祸害全球
🛋️ 沙发板凳
我觉得这个报告是有人故意泄露给西方的。感觉高层内部有冲突。
日本台湾是急先锋吧
这两家打的头阵，调调嘛跟现在是一样的，赚钱，有钱大家赚。
所以有的时候看到大陆排斥台湾企业排斥日本企业，也觉得日本台湾企业deserve it
然后才是其他西方国家慢慢跟进的
看看Reuters上面的评论：a thousand times more than that
re
主要是给两百斤看的。它说不定还做着“人类命运共同体”的千秋大梦呢？
老布什网开一面不仅是对北京胡同的个人感情也是因为老邓有手段，克林顿的全球化和入世才造就了东方经济猛兽
川普昨天在林肯纪念堂town hall meeting说的话都没人关注？？
这是多么坚毅的决心。
我觉得穆桂英是个伪装很好隐藏很深的外宣。。。
话里话外都是tg多厉害tg多牛叉全世界都世界干不过tg了唉。。。
说了啥？没看老川的讲话
你给总结一下？谢谢
那我们也不可能出国了。
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有
确实感觉瘟疫中唯一得利的就是CCP，不花自己一分钱搞倒所有的敌人，还把韭菜更有效的圈起来 要是不彻底追责，真是没有天理了
收到：）谢谢
他说的是华人网上的共识（不包括无毛），想知道给他做briefing的人是不是经常来华人
我觉得她听着精神有点问题……sorry no offense
哈哈哈如果华人的民意能够传达给川普，那华人网站功德无量啊
华人最了解中国人，其他人种的老美有可能会被中国人骗
骗华人，呵呵，门都没有
林肯纪念堂在美国政治中有极其特殊的地位。上次尼克松转了一圈，然后就越南撤军。这次看川普应该是下了某种决心。拭目以待吧！
川普的意向总是比较飘忽，不会轻易让你看到底牌
如今的局面那要归功于战狼外交和那些五毛自干党，包括那些轮班制蹲点华人的五毛新ID
据指出，这是一份上月提交给包括中共中央最高层在内的领导人的报告，这一出自国际关系学院的报告提示中共领导，2019年年底中国武汉爆发的新冠疫情加剧了外国对北京的敌意。
这份报告警告，在最坏的情况下，中美之间已经存在的剧烈紧张会突变为一场两国间的军事冲突。
路透社记者就此询问中国外交部发言人时，发言人称不知道相关信息。在询问领导这所国际关系学院的中国国家安全部时，该部不予置评。
向中国领导人提交这样一份报告，显示北京当局担心一场对其普遍性敌意的总爆发，这将使得中国的外交政策甚至在外国的投资都会发生严重问题。
许多个星期以来，美国指责中国掩盖了新冠疫情爆发的关键信息，甚至有时谴责中国是病毒的源头。最近以来，美国总统特朗普，美国国务卿蓬佩奥指责病毒源自中国武汉一家病毒研究所。
美国总统特朗普5月3日在福克斯新闻频道受访时，当提及新冠肺炎疫情大流行的问题上表示，他相信中国“犯了一个可怕的错误”并试图加以掩盖，而且迟迟不让美国专家和世卫组织专家入境。特朗普说：“我的看法是他们犯了个错误。他们试图掩盖，试图扑灭，好比是着了火。就好像是要把火扑灭。他们没办法把火扑灭。”
4月30日，特朗普总统在白宫对记者们说，他看到了新冠病毒与武汉病毒研究所有关的证据，但他拒绝披露相关情报的细节。
美国国务卿蓬佩奥这个星期日对美国广播公司称：“有大量的证据”表明，新冠病毒大流行起源自武汉的一个实验室研究所，而不是附近的一个市场，但他拒绝说美国是否认为病毒是故意释放的。
从去年初包帝就开始斗争思维不离口了，外交部又不是法外之地，你不斗天斗地斗遍全世界，早被撸下来了
不能同意更多！ 本来做为疫情爆发地的武汉是最惨的，结果被战狼口交部五毛这么一搞，大家不仅不同情反而更恨，小学生草包加怂包果然不愧是十里山路不换肩的蠢货
整个这个病毒从1月爆出来就是内部冲突斗争远大于国家命运，百姓生命，世界声誉。看看中国开始抗疫各种怪现状，还有各种打脸自相矛盾的言论，加上一系列暗杀什么的。
包括赵立坚突然跳出来咬美国也都特别怪异。
但是教育程度不等于文化程度.
那是因为从中国出来的人最了解ccp和中国
六四后，先是日本伸出了橄榄枝，投资建厂，美国老布什一方面希望联合中国对付苏联，当时冷战还未结束，另一方面，作为曾经的驻华官员，他对中国有特殊感情，有派秘使给中国政府吃定心丸，说不会断交。最最关键的是老邓，没有与世界为敌，而是韬光养晦，又去南边画了个圈，继续对外开放，慢慢就缓过来了。
被国际社会孤立了几年，东欧巨变后，小平同志南巡要走市场化道路，民主党克林顿同志幻想中国给西方资本打工富裕了会民主化。
老布什就一任，精力在对付苏联和伊拉克战争，IT泡沫爆了，经济没搞好，没那么多精力搞中国。
小平同志多厉害呀，硬得更硬，软得更软，克林顿同志没对付过。
91年哪来的 IT泡沫....
多亏了现在的指路人啊 否则美国人傻傻地还继续被骗 所谓的韬光养晦，其本质还是压根就不认可文明世界的 规矩。无非是当时自己拳头不够大而已，不得已出此下策，服软意思一下。这样的政府真的某天做大了，连美帝 都宿手无策了，将是人类的灾难！
的确损人不利己的一招
上有所好下必甚焉！
同样困惑
文贵一直说六四中共就不存在了
但是穆桂英话里话外感觉中共还能苟延残喘一阵子
既然中共敢玩儿这一招，自然不怕
中共不怕老百姓死，但是怕老百姓造反
现在老百姓有觉悟能造反的势力看不见啊
确实, 这次各国经济都被严重冲击, 还死了很多人, 比64严重.
OMG 得多naive才能說出這話, “反腐”（aka趙家財富重新洗牌）都結束了, 修仙一尊都實現了, 道路以目在中國已經N年了, 頭等艙都跑空了, 2020年初還好局面?!
是，邓公确定了韬光养晦的大方向，而且要搞好对美关系，之后江胡两代也一直遵循这一大方向。
另外美国方面，911事件让小布什把战略重点转向中东反恐战争，伊拉克阿富汗几场战争把美国耗得精疲力竭，2008又来了个场金融危机，o8上台又是个光说不练耍嘴皮子玩绥靖政策，不停战略后退，在伊朗阿富汗朝鲜问题上也搞不定求助中共帮忙。 这20年，给中工在全球战略扩张让出了发展空间。
欧盟安全研究所亚洲负责人爱丽丝-埃克曼（Alice Ekman）新著有《鲜红色—中国共产主义理想》（Rouge vif - L’idéal communiste chinois ）。艾克曼指出，由于疫情大流行，中国的朋友圈将缩水，但是习近平和他周围的人并不打算停止强化意识形态。
下面是法国《观点》周刊记者吕克-德-巴鲁奇（Luc de Barochez）对爱丽丝-埃克曼的采访：
问：中共的戒尺在何种程度上可以解释这次疫情在最初被掩盖？
答: 在习近平担任主席以后，人们更加深了恐惧。他上台7年多来，发起的大规模反腐败运动，其目的也是进行政治整肃。在中国的绝大部分机构，做一切事情都必须由党来批准，包括在医院也是如此。
武汉中心医院急诊科负责人艾芬医生应该记得，她与同事们在病毒最开始出现时，识别了病毒。她随后受到（党委书记）严厉训诫，被要求服从命令。所以，科学家害怕遭政治领导人整肃，地方当局害怕遭中央政府整肃，他们的恐惧是很强烈的。这种双重恐惧可能会影响武汉和湖北省对该病的初步控制。
问：这场危机是否被权力当局用来加强控制？
答：党没有等到这场冠状病毒危机到来，就进行了大清洗；这场清洗7年来一直在持续。我们往往会忘记，恐惧感在党内也很强烈，尤其是党内高层。
中纪委不断展开检查，经常发动纠正党员意识形态的运动，在“同志”之间进行批评和自我批评，还要学习习近平的言论。这种氛围导致管理者不愿意去冒险，并在某些情况下，对那些可能让上级皱眉头的事实和数字进行低估。
问：强硬化意识形态，是否是习近平巩固权力的一种方式？
答：这个强硬化有三个相互交织的原因。首先是因为习近平认为，前苏联在1991年垮台和消失，是因为当时苏共不够强大。所以他要在经济放缓导致社会和政治紧张的背景下，强化中共。
第二个原因是，党的强大，对于作为党总书记的习近平加强自己的权力很重要，也对他搞好他称为“中华民族复兴”的运动很重要。
第三个原因，不能低估习近平和他的谋士们对意识形态的狂热。习近平上台后没有质疑马克思主义意识形态，也没有质疑毛泽东时代。相反，七年来，他重申中国作为共产国家的身份，而且不仅限于言辞，还特别体现在与其他治理模式加剧竞争的方面。从2013年开始，习近平就明确提出“社会主义制度”优于资本主义制度。
问：这场病毒危机是否阻碍了“中国模式”在世界推广？
答：中国官方的通讯信息在社交平台或其他地方，都不给任何含糊和质疑留有余地。不论现实中发生了什么情况，人们都要保持自豪和对未来的自信，以符合习近平在2016年提出的《四个自信》（对中国的制度，道路，理论和文化的自信）。推动替换西方民主体制的政治意愿非常强烈。
问：但是这个言论很难通过...
答：是的，一些国家很反感这个言论。但近几年来，中国首先凭借世界第二经济大国的地位以及它代表的投资和贸易机会，成功吸引了许多发展中国家。不过在当前情况下，一些国家正在从中国的吸引力中走出来。因为简单的事实是，这种病毒来自中国，使中国的形象受挫。
另外，围绕中国援助和北京管理危机“有效”模式的公关宣传也适得其反，特别是在欧洲。但也并非全都如此。危机过后，中国的“朋友圈”会缩水，但缩水后也会加固。一些国家要在北京和华盛顿之间选边站。
问：美国有关与中国“新冷战”的论述是否恰当？
答：冷战的言论双方都能感觉到。在中国一方，远在特朗普当选以前，中国与美国的竞争就已经进入议程。长期以来，党的官员被反复灌输：美国，更广泛说，是西方，应对世界所有危机，对中国的屈辱负责。与西方的对抗已经根植于党的想象中。这场危机可能会进一步增强反西方的怨恨情绪。
在习近平时代发生的变化是，宣称中国的胜利和美国即将衰落，已成为官方承担的说法，官方宣传变得充满敌意。“西方”一词本身，在中国外交政策界，已受到污名化，令人想到试图推翻党的西方敌对势力。所以，许多党的干部都认为，对于包含欧洲在内的广义的西方，任何时候都必须保持警惕。
问：危机过后，西方提出搬迁工业的建议是否让北京担心？
答：中国经济仍然以出口为导向。短期内，中国还会依赖欧洲和美国市场。但是北京和华盛顿之间生发的贸易紧张，可能导致两国经济相互依存度降低。这次疫情大流行加速了这一进程。
中国经济想要在中国自身基础上寻求不断发展。2021年将公布的五年计划应该会反映出这一点，会进一步将重点放在新兴技术与创新之上。
同时，许多国家，特别是欧洲国家，最近几个月意识到它们对中国市场（技术，物流，制药等）的依赖，这将导致一些调整。
问：这样会导致全球化的终结吗 ?
答：不会, 但会出现更加两极化的全球化：由伙伴国家构成的两极结构，同时发展不同类型的商业关系。届时某些国家将仍然与中国关系紧密，其他国家则出于经济，战略，安全的考量，认为在某种程度上摆脱中国技术和中国市场的时候到了。
我们可能看到不同的网络出现（5G，海底电缆，互联网等），将有不同的标准，这些将并行发展，最终慢慢变的互不兼容。
问：最后，这场危机是否会导致中国政治体系紧张？
中共有着如此密集的地理网络，不太可能在一夕之间消失，也不会在这场危机之后深入自我质疑。这个党拥有9千万党员，具有非常强势的地位，存在于社会各个层面。
此外，不可低估宣传，审查，恐惧的分量。如果一部分人口和党员克制着自己的不满情绪——很难精确评估，他们若表达不满，将有很大风险。当局拥有大量的人力和技术资源，用非常细密的网格化监视系统对人口进行监视。
立贱还想着新官上任三把火，赶紧帮主子甩锅，结果迎来了一个它主子都背不动的更大的一口锅
Xi has revamped China’s military strategy to create a fighting force equipped to win modern wars. He is expanding China’s air and naval reach in a challenge to more than 70 years of U.S. military dominance in Asia.
In its statement, China’s foreign ministry called for cooperation, saying, “the sound and steady development of China-U.S. relations” serve the interests of both countries and the international community.
It added: “any words or actions that engage in political manipulation or stigmatization under the pretext of the pandemic, including taking the opportunity to sow discord between countries, are not conducive to international cooperation against the pandemic.”
看完的感觉是中国上层希望改变现在的世界秩序，认为现在是个契机。
所谓的韬光养晦，潜台词是发达了之后要翻脸的啊。所以细胞现在的行为算是符合逻辑的
RE， 现在都是连环套路，很有可能
赞秃子头上的虱子，好有画面感
RE 有人还没梦醒，也不用醒来了，因为看到不堪，可能还不如一直在梦里
而且还要不依不饶地栽赃说是你们自己杀的烧的。。