111

爱吃香蕉的鱼

我记得这个3.4%死亡率,然后大总统说高估了,应该不到1%

bonton 发表于 3/23/2020 1:51:34 PM

不是他高估的。当时看节目,专家说由于很多人没被测试,所以分母肯定比实际的大很多,最后得到的百分之一的结论
c
czar0914
原因是多方面的,上面有些发言角度都很不错。首先美国人是自大,两次世界大战都没有打到本土来,他们是真的相信天佑美国。不仅是baby boomer,你看三月初佛州海滩上party的大学生,一样德行。那个时候NBA,PGA什么的所有最赚钱体育赛事都取消了。我记得ABC报道高尔夫大事赛取消的时候,说了上次取消还是二战的。同一个新闻,医学专家还是大号flu,low risk这个调调。普通群众当然该干嘛还是干嘛,但是大资本早就做出了反应。第二从流行文化上讲,美国这几年老是宣传positivity,什么坏事都是有silver lining 我觉得他们也不愿意直视现实,认识有偏颇,对上面新闻的反应就是例子。无论天大的事情发生,他们想到的首先是want to have some fun,这是让他们做出什么行动的绊脚石。第三像前面有人提到的,最近国内国际新闻大事太多。史上第三次弹劾总统,从众议院打到参议院,再到trial搞了几个月。我看辩论直播都看了好多次,很有娱乐性我还真的很enjoy。弹劾过去,立马是民主党的大选了,各个候选人一轮接一轮,就不提烧了几亿的纽约前市长。然后harvey weistein的案子,好莱坞制片大鳄的倒下,epstein狱内自杀被自杀似乎都排不上新闻热榜。这还没算上国外和伊朗局势的紧张,伊朗政府把载运自己国民的客机打下来。中国国内新冠肺炎死伤这么多,和这些新闻比,打完这么多字我都觉得很麻木。想不到的事情太多太多,还不如事情发生了再处理,proactive没有用,反正联邦政府的权利也就那样,那些政客的精力都用来斗总统了。
为了什么
那么多藤校的科学家!都没用!太失望了
b
brandnewvest
能把你运回国的口罩再运回来吗?我们都记得你哦

victoriabaobei 发表于 3/23/2020 7:06:26 AM

这ID脸皮真够厚的,好歹自杀了这个ID,换个新衣裳呢
d
dodgers

不是他高估的。当时看节目,专家说由于很多人没被测试,所以分母肯定比实际的大很多,最后得到的百分之一的结论

爱吃香蕉的鱼 发表于 3/24/2020 12:20:58 AM

中国报3.4%,美国说不是,太高了。
所以美国在怪中国故意把数据报高。

大统领的逻辑是,中国报的太高了,所以美国才不信,然后就这样了。下次中国应该报的低点。
d
dodgers


我觉得跟Dr. Fauci的误判有关。其实当美国开始正视Coronavirus的威胁的时候,摆在Dr. Fauci面前的几个数据,武汉的高死亡率,中国湖北以外的低死亡率数据,韩国的低死亡率数据,日本的缓慢数据,新加坡和香港的成功控制数据。那个时候意大利的惨烈还没显现。鉴于武汉乱哄哄的,数据也不可靠。Dr Fauci应该分析了其他的数据,第一印象是这个疾病没有那么可怕,也许就是大号流感。韩国模式可以学习。所以只要CDC有足够高质量的检测试剂盒就可防可控。但是CDC的检测试剂盒掉链子了,欧洲大爆发,都不知道多少欧洲病毒携带者长驱直入进入美国。于是美国肯定失守了。现在也就是纽约在执行韩国模式,其他地方都放弃了防控,实施事实上的群体免疫。真心希望Cuomo成功复制韩国模式吧,只是现在病毒传播太广泛了。

庚子 发表于 3/24/2020 12:12:01 AM

Fauci 说会很糟糕,他把事情说的太糟糕,大统领不信。下次说的普通一点,就好了。
d
dodgers
没去武汉实地调查,相信土共报的数字,不误判是不可能的。

如果他们去了武汉看到医院里堆满的尸体,满城都是寻求治疗的人,到处都是焚尸炉,医院里医生决定谁生谁死,医院过度负荷,老百姓绝望的表情,他们误判的可能性会有多大?

这就是为什么cdc的实地调查非常重要,土共一次次拒绝,直接造成今天的病毒的世界性的蔓延。

这个罪责,土共逃不掉

lilinana 发表于 3/23/2020 10:11:40 PM

确实如此,土共报3.4%死亡率,美国一算,3亿人,50%得,要死450万。骗谁那!

美国当然不相信,下次中国报低点,美国倒会信了。这次中国确实不对。
i
isabel
这是觉得甩锅中国不够了要把美国的科学家都拖下水吗?川普相信科学吗?
westlake 发表于 3/23/2020 1:48:44 PM


能不造谣吗? Fauci 都说了总统没有否定过任何科学的建议。

是没否定过,在重复1,2,3,4遍之后,重复到第5遍,床铺就听了
L
Lemm

你把具体新闻找出来我们看看呗。科学家到底给了什么建议来contain the virus, 每个都是说wash hands and keep personal hygiene. 没一个说要旅客隔离,没一个说要断航,连戴口罩都没人推荐。

flipping 发表于 3/23/2020 6:39:37 PM

随便翻了翻npr, 给你几个链接啊。我知道一些华人大妈对npr是恨之入骨。不过人家就愿意采访专家。
关于断航,封城: Jan 29, Former CDC Director Breaks Down U.S. Readiness For Coronavirus
https://www.npr.org/2020/01/29/800938083/former-cdc-director-breaks-down-u-s-readiness-for-coronavirus
SHAPIRO: We're seeing some pretty dramatic steps as responses to the outbreak. I mean, British Airways has suspended China flights. The city of Wuhan, home to more than 11 million people, is on lockdown. Do you think this scale of response is appropriate? GERBERDING: You know, I would never criticize measures in the early days of something that could be as serious as this outbreak. It's hard to predict what's necessary until you have the benefit of the retrospective scope. So taking measures to reduce travel, to decrease the contact that one person has with other people - these are standard quarantine-like approaches. And depending on how early you apply them and how successful people comply with them, they can make a difference in, at least, slowing down spread. And right now, given the intense pressure on the health care system, anything we can do to kind of spread out the situation over a longer arc of time - that can actually be very helpful in ensuring that essential medical services are available to people.
关于测试 Jan 30, Expert Says There Is Time To Prevent A U.S. Coronavirus Epidemic
https://www.npr.org/2020/01/30/801118571/expert-says-there-is-time-to-prevent-a-u-s-coronavirus-epidemic
The most important and effective way to control epidemics is to identify patients who are infected, exposed to the virus, and isolate them. We say you isolate the patient, you isolate the virus.
So the CDC is doing everything it can right now to prepare the reagents, to work to validate their test, to distribute it to other public health labs. So this process of augmenting the capacity for testing is well underway. But the private sector really needs to step in because day-to-day in medical care systems, the private sector supplies most of the diagnostic tests. So we want this testing to be no different than what occurs on the day-to-day health care system.
And the lag between testing and results is - you know, generates resource demands on hospitals because its patients are in isolation.

关于医院准备,测试的重要 Feb 2, U.S. Hospitals Unprepared For A Quickly Spreading Coronavirus
https://www.npr.org/2020/02/02/802087551/u-s-hospitals-unprepared-for-a-quickly-spreading-coronavirus
O'Toole says hospitals will have a very hard time handling a lot of critically ill patients who need to be in isolation. That's why we want to make sure to the greatest extent possible that the people we're putting in hospitals and keeping isolated are really the ones who need that kind of care. The danger is we will put people who are sick with other illnesses like flu in isolation and hospital care when they don't need to be there. As it is now, testing for coronavirus must be done at the CDC in Atlanta. A diagnostic test that could be done in local doctors' offices or even at home would make a big difference in managing the epidemic. The tests could be developed in just a few months. But she says that requires a federal commitment and a greater investment in public health. Public Health in America is generally underfunded and has been cut in terms of its funding over the last decade. When we look at a state and local jobs, there are about 50,000 fewer jobs in public health across the country now than before the recession in 2008.
关于无症状传染,看看Fauci 是怎么说的。 Feb 5, Does The New Coronavirus Spread Silently?
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/02/05/803158339/does-the-new-coronavirus-spread-silently
Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, had cited that case last week at a White House meeting in which health officials announced a quarantine for people returning from the disease's hotspot in China. He says the errant letter in the journal doesn't alter his view.
Fauci said he been talking to trusted colleagues in China about this issue, and "they told me without a doubt there is some degree of asymptomatic transmission." But he says to the extent it's happening, it doesn't explain the apparently explosive spread of this disease within China. The history of respiratory disease is that "asymptomatic transmission is not the main driver of [any] outbreak." 无症状传染有,但不是主要传染方式也是国内医生公认的。
关于戴口罩 Jan 25, Coronavirus FAQs: Do Masks Help? Is The Disease Really So Mysterious?
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/01/25/799007842/coronavirus-faqs-do-masks-help-is-the-disease-really-so-mysterious
According to the CDC, the kind of flimsy masks that people often buy in pharmacies may not tightly fit the face, so the wearer can still breathe in air — and infected droplets. Stanley Perlman, a professor at the University of Iowa who studies coronaviruses, agrees that the mask won't necessarily prevent infection. But they do have some value, he says: Wearing a mask may stop an individual from directly touching their mouth and nose, which is a common way that viruses and germs enter the body. Masks provide some protection this way, he adds. "But what we teach is that they're not very good."
Jan 27, How Helpful Are Face Masks In Preventing The Spread Of Disease?
https://www.npr.org/2020/01/27/800158083/how-helpful-are-face-masks-in-preventing-the-spread-of-disease
She says surgical masks don't provide a tight fit. Small airborne particles can still get through. But her research suggests surgical masks can lower the risk of getting infected if you're at home in close contact with a family member who has a respiratory illness, Raina MacIntyre says the calculation of whether to wear a face mask is different for people in a place like Wuhan, China, the epicenter of the current outbreak.

Feb 24, Public Health Expert Shares Suggestions On How To Manage A Pandemic
https://www.npr.org/2020/02/24/808995279/public-health-expert-shares-suggestions-on-how-to-manage-a-pandemic
KELLY: So to the question of, is the U.S. prepared for a pandemic? - is it? And what would being prepared for a pandemic look like? OSTERHOLM: Well, first of all, we're in somewhat of an unusual position where we have part of our government, the CDC and the NIH, really talking about this potential for a pandemic and that it could start spreading through all of our communities, where we have other parts of the government leadership saying, no, we're going to contain it at the border, you know, we're going to wall it off. I think we have to move on and just agree that, like the rest of the world, we're going to see transmission here in the United States. We're not that prepared any more than anyone else, including the Chinese, in the sense that - where we really have the serious challenges in our health care systems. The Chinese hospitals have been overrun with cases. We've seen over 3,000 health care workers in China infected by the virus just trying to provide care and not having the adequate protection equipment available.
KELLY: If you were putting together a checklist for what we could do that would make a difference in the amount of time possible, what would be at the top of it? OSTERHOLM: No. 1, we've got to really shore up in our health care facilities around the country, making sure we have as much protective equipment available as possible. What do we do if we have overflows of patients that need medical care? How do we protect our health care workers if they go down? We're in big trouble. That's the first start. KELLY: Yeah. What about each of us as individuals? OSTERHOLM: Well, the next thing is, as an individual, what we want everyone to do is start thinking about, how would I deal with this in my own family? What if my grandmother or my sister or my parents - who's going to watch out for them? Is anybody going to contact them and follow up with them if they're sick? If they do, who's going to provide care? If I'm a single mom and I have two kids that are in daycare and now I'm sick or they're sick, who's going to care for them? And so it's a time for families to really come together and say, you know, just like we prepare for hurricanes, how do we prepare for this? It says (ph), if I can't be hospitalized, I'm here to help you. This is what I'll do.

关于ppe Feb 26, As U.S. Preps For Coronavirus, Health Workers Question Safety Measures
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/02/26/809253920/as-u-s-preps-for-coronavirus-health-workers-question-safety-measures
National Nurses United is conducting an ongoing survey that as of last week found that about 31% of nearly 5,000 nurse respondents said they didn't have enough protective gear to handle a surge of coronavirus cases. Only 9% said their hospital or clinic had plans to isolate potentially infected patients.
关于白宫和专家
Feb 26, White House And CDC Send Contrasting Messages About Coronavirus Threat
https://www.npr.org/2020/02/26/809748886/white-house-and-cdc-send-contrasting-messages-about-coronavirus-threat
United States health officials delivered a clear message Tuesday: serious measures could be required to stem the new coronavirus. One top official described the spread of the disease in the U.S. as inevitable. That tone is in clear contrast to the messages coming from the White House. After a sharp dip in the stock market Monday, President Trump tweeted that the disease "is very much under control in the USA."



g
goldengate

随便翻了翻npr, 给你几个链接啊。我知道一些华人大妈对npr是恨之入骨。不过人家就愿意采访专家。
关于断航,封城: Jan 29, Former CDC Director Breaks Down U.S. Readiness For Coronavirus
https://www.npr.org/2020/01/29/800938083/former-cdc-director-breaks-down-u-s-readiness-for-coronavirus
SHAPIRO: We're seeing some pretty dramatic steps as responses to the outbreak. I mean, British Airways has suspended China flights. The city of Wuhan, home to more than 11 million people, is on lockdown. Do you think this scale of response is appropriate? GERBERDING: You know, I would never criticize measures in the early days of something that could be as serious as this outbreak. It's hard to predict what's necessary until you have the benefit of the retrospective scope. So taking measures to reduce travel, to decrease the contact that one person has with other people - these are standard quarantine-like approaches. And depending on how early you apply them and how successful people comply with them, they can make a difference in, at least, slowing down spread. And right now, given the intense pressure on the health care system, anything we can do to kind of spread out the situation over a longer arc of time - that can actually be very helpful in ensuring that essential medical services are available to people.
关于测试 Jan 30, Expert Says There Is Time To Prevent A U.S. Coronavirus Epidemic
https://www.npr.org/2020/01/30/801118571/expert-says-there-is-time-to-prevent-a-u-s-coronavirus-epidemic
The most important and effective way to control epidemics is to identify patients who are infected, exposed to the virus, and isolate them. We say you isolate the patient, you isolate the virus.
So the CDC is doing everything it can right now to prepare the reagents, to work to validate their test, to distribute it to other public health labs. So this process of augmenting the capacity for testing is well underway. But the private sector really needs to step in because day-to-day in medical care systems, the private sector supplies most of the diagnostic tests. So we want this testing to be no different than what occurs on the day-to-day health care system.
And the lag between testing and results is - you know, generates resource demands on hospitals because its patients are in isolation.

关于医院准备,测试的重要 Feb 2, U.S. Hospitals Unprepared For A Quickly Spreading Coronavirus
https://www.npr.org/2020/02/02/802087551/u-s-hospitals-unprepared-for-a-quickly-spreading-coronavirus
O'Toole says hospitals will have a very hard time handling a lot of critically ill patients who need to be in isolation. That's why we want to make sure to the greatest extent possible that the people we're putting in hospitals and keeping isolated are really the ones who need that kind of care. The danger is we will put people who are sick with other illnesses like flu in isolation and hospital care when they don't need to be there. As it is now, testing for coronavirus must be done at the CDC in Atlanta. A diagnostic test that could be done in local doctors' offices or even at home would make a big difference in managing the epidemic. The tests could be developed in just a few months. But she says that requires a federal commitment and a greater investment in public health. Public Health in America is generally underfunded and has been cut in terms of its funding over the last decade. When we look at a state and local jobs, there are about 50,000 fewer jobs in public health across the country now than before the recession in 2008.
关于无症状传染,看看Fauci 是怎么说的。 Feb 5, Does The New Coronavirus Spread Silently?
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/02/05/803158339/does-the-new-coronavirus-spread-silently
Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, had cited that case last week at a White House meeting in which health officials announced a quarantine for people returning from the disease's hotspot in China. He says the errant letter in the journal doesn't alter his view.
Fauci said he been talking to trusted colleagues in China about this issue, and "they told me without a doubt there is some degree of asymptomatic transmission." But he says to the extent it's happening, it doesn't explain the apparently explosive spread of this disease within China. The history of respiratory disease is that "asymptomatic transmission is not the main driver of [any] outbreak." 无症状传染有,但不是主要传染方式也是国内医生公认的。
关于戴口罩 Jan 25, Coronavirus FAQs: Do Masks Help? Is The Disease Really So Mysterious?
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/01/25/799007842/coronavirus-faqs-do-masks-help-is-the-disease-really-so-mysterious
According to the CDC, the kind of flimsy masks that people often buy in pharmacies may not tightly fit the face, so the wearer can still breathe in air — and infected droplets. Stanley Perlman, a professor at the University of Iowa who studies coronaviruses, agrees that the mask won't necessarily prevent infection. But they do have some value, he says: Wearing a mask may stop an individual from directly touching their mouth and nose, which is a common way that viruses and germs enter the body. Masks provide some protection this way, he adds. "But what we teach is that they're not very good."
Jan 27, How Helpful Are Face Masks In Preventing The Spread Of Disease?
https://www.npr.org/2020/01/27/800158083/how-helpful-are-face-masks-in-preventing-the-spread-of-disease
She says surgical masks don't provide a tight fit. Small airborne particles can still get through. But her research suggests surgical masks can lower the risk of getting infected if you're at home in close contact with a family member who has a respiratory illness, Raina MacIntyre says the calculation of whether to wear a face mask is different for people in a place like Wuhan, China, the epicenter of the current outbreak.

Feb 24, Public Health Expert Shares Suggestions On How To Manage A Pandemic
https://www.npr.org/2020/02/24/808995279/public-health-expert-shares-suggestions-on-how-to-manage-a-pandemic
KELLY: So to the question of, is the U.S. prepared for a pandemic? - is it? And what would being prepared for a pandemic look like? OSTERHOLM: Well, first of all, we're in somewhat of an unusual position where we have part of our government, the CDC and the NIH, really talking about this potential for a pandemic and that it could start spreading through all of our communities, where we have other parts of the government leadership saying, no, we're going to contain it at the border, you know, we're going to wall it off. I think we have to move on and just agree that, like the rest of the world, we're going to see transmission here in the United States. We're not that prepared any more than anyone else, including the Chinese, in the sense that - where we really have the serious challenges in our health care systems. The Chinese hospitals have been overrun with cases. We've seen over 3,000 health care workers in China infected by the virus just trying to provide care and not having the adequate protection equipment available.
KELLY: If you were putting together a checklist for what we could do that would make a difference in the amount of time possible, what would be at the top of it? OSTERHOLM: No. 1, we've got to really shore up in our health care facilities around the country, making sure we have as much protective equipment available as possible. What do we do if we have overflows of patients that need medical care? How do we protect our health care workers if they go down? We're in big trouble. That's the first start. KELLY: Yeah. What about each of us as individuals? OSTERHOLM: Well, the next thing is, as an individual, what we want everyone to do is start thinking about, how would I deal with this in my own family? What if my grandmother or my sister or my parents - who's going to watch out for them? Is anybody going to contact them and follow up with them if they're sick? If they do, who's going to provide care? If I'm a single mom and I have two kids that are in daycare and now I'm sick or they're sick, who's going to care for them? And so it's a time for families to really come together and say, you know, just like we prepare for hurricanes, how do we prepare for this? It says (ph), if I can't be hospitalized, I'm here to help you. This is what I'll do.

关于ppe Feb 26, As U.S. Preps For Coronavirus, Health Workers Question Safety Measures
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/02/26/809253920/as-u-s-preps-for-coronavirus-health-workers-question-safety-measures
National Nurses United is conducting an ongoing survey that as of last week found that about 31% of nearly 5,000 nurse respondents said they didn't have enough protective gear to handle a surge of coronavirus cases. Only 9% said their hospital or clinic had plans to isolate potentially infected patients.
关于白宫和专家
Feb 26, White House And CDC Send Contrasting Messages About Coronavirus Threat
https://www.npr.org/2020/02/26/809748886/white-house-and-cdc-send-contrasting-messages-about-coronavirus-threat
United States health officials delivered a clear message Tuesday: serious measures could be required to stem the new coronavirus. One top official described the spread of the disease in the U.S. as inevitable. That tone is in clear contrast to the messages coming from the White House. After a sharp dip in the stock market Monday, President Trump tweeted that the disease "is very much under control in the USA."

Lemm 发表于 3/24/2020 1:58:53 AM


你发的这些,相当部分政府都执行了,包括断航,包括测试(只是又是cdc搞砸了而已。不然测试早就开展了。原先弄的试剂全不要扔了重新做。 其他的你知道你某些支持戴口罩的说法有多weak 吗?不戴口罩在美国就是主流意见,到现在还没有改变。这个不是川普的决定而是美国科学界的决定。他们有可能是错的,但是用这些个别人说法来支持政府没有听科学家的,证据太弱。如果戴口罩是主流的医学意见,CDC就不会让大家不戴口罩了。我不是说他们是对的,我也觉得能戴口罩还是要戴,但是你用个别专家说的还各种可能这个可能那个的话,没有实打实的研究支持,CDC就不会采用。这种就是纯粹的个人意见。很不幸CDC没有采用他们的个人意见。只能这么说了。
L
Lemm


你发的这些,相当部分政府都执行了,包括断航,包括测试(只是又是cdc搞砸了而已。不然测试早就开展了。原先弄的试剂全不要扔了重新做。 其他的你知道你某些支持戴口罩的说法有多weak 吗?不戴口罩在美国就是主流意见,到现在还没有改变。这个不是川普的决定而是美国科学界的决定。他们有可能是错的,但是用这些个别人说法来支持政府没有听科学家的,证据太弱。如果戴口罩是主流的医学意见,CDC就不会让大家不戴口罩了。我不是说他们是对的,我也觉得能戴口罩还是要戴,但是你用个别专家说的还各种可能这个可能那个的话,没有实打实的研究支持,CDC就不会采用。这种就是纯粹的个人意见。很不幸CDC没有采用他们的个人意见。只能这么说了。

goldengate 发表于 3/24/2020 2:08:16 AM

是楼里的人在说科学家反对断航。所以发在这了。这些专家说的最重要的是测试和PPE. Cdc到底如何搞砸的是一个问题。别人很早就呼吁要private sector 介入。没有政府的支持,private sector 不可能会早早介入做准备。政府在干嘛。Ppe 的问题,都多少天了,总统先生还要州里自己想办法呢。ppe 的短缺直接影响到cdc会不会让大家戴口罩。当然一些sb医院说怕恐慌不要戴口罩实在是太恶心了。总之现在最大问题就是ppe. 政府必须立即采取非常措施。川粉们还在粉饰太平,还要甩锅给科学家。
c
ccc60
回复 42楼2sigma的帖子
谁跟你说的,美国也有很多不同声音,那为什么传不出来,只是不是权利部门出面而已。美国有自己的机构来控制言论
c
ccc60
回复 93楼lilinana的帖子
你又是怎么知道的,你去实地看了吗,还是你全程录像拍摄了,还是人家给你了绝密报告了。一个人云亦云的家伙还整天出来丢人现眼
g
goldengate

是楼里的人在说科学家反对断航。所以发在这了。这些专家说的最重要的是测试和PPE. Cdc到底如何搞砸的是一个问题。别人很早就呼吁要private sector 介入。没有政府的支持,private sector 不可能会早早介入做准备。政府在干嘛。Ppe 的问题,都多少天了,总统先生还要州里自己想办法呢。ppe 的短缺直接影响到cdc会不会让大家戴口罩。当然一些sb医院说怕恐慌不要戴口罩实在是太恶心了。总之现在最大问题就是ppe. 政府必须立即采取非常措施。川粉们还在粉饰太平,还要甩锅给科学家。

Lemm 发表于 3/24/2020 2:25:56 AM


左派反对断航的如过江之鲫,里面到底有多少科学家我就没工夫去查证了。他们这帮人不管川普做什么就先跳出来批评,而不管他做的对不对。
l
leo.liang
川粉准备甩锅给科学家了?
我想我是疯了
美国科学家错了就是误判,中国科学家错了就是瞒报,真双标。
clairehz 发表于 3/23/2020 11:34:28 AM


中国科学家没有瞒报,中国相关科学家早发论文发微博澄清了。 早上报给D中央了。

是亲自部署亲自指挥的梁博士,决定要先过个美好的春节再说。
1/7号就已知情,并在某会上做了重要批示, 党媒这么赞扬博士的领导力的。
我想我是疯了


中国科学家说死亡率3.4%,R0=3, 美国有1亿多人会得,要死400万人。

然后这里没人相信。美国全国认为中国数字报的太高,美国不会有3.4%的死亡率,美国这个病毒R0不会有3。

归根揭底,美国认为中国报高了。

dodgers 发表于 3/23/2020 1:31:10 PM


我记得当时中国已经传出无症状传染的带菌者会感染他人的时候,CDC一个director(我忘了是谁)在接受媒体采访时说,不可能无症状传染,这不符合他这辈子的研究, 他认为中国方面那么说是为了掩盖早期的处理不当。
我记得很清楚,是因为当时我刚刚给我们区的国会众议员发过Email, 希望他能重视一下无症状传染的情况,CDC在机场只测温度是不够的,SFO和LAX是当时定的国内航班过来的检测机场之二
m
mouton
这是他一个月前对美国疫情的预测, 感觉有很大失误。纠结于2%的死亡率, 没有意识到新冠比SARS更危险, 对医疗系统的冲击。当时下面的留言已经都在质疑他了。Dr. Fauci虽然学术成就斐然,但他的专长是在艾滋病防疫上。

可防可控

Ginger2015 发表于 3/23/2020 6:55:42 AM

韩国报的死亡率1.3%,流感都不如。检测试剂盒失误,没有提前做足准备,CDC和卫生主管的官僚是主要责任者
汤圆
美国科学界不相信人传人这件事是有记录的。我记得当时是CDC开会明确说不会无症状传染,中国这么说是因为中国方面无法解释为什么武汉会突然爆这么多人出来。 他们当时还说加拿大的一个P4研究所已经做过实验不可能无症状。。这个会议总结回头去找应该找得到的。

我当时信了,所以CDC什么措施都没有我还觉得没什么。

现在整个美国都不戴口罩,也是因为他们还没有相信气溶胶这个说法。

*********

老了说错了,是无症状传染不是人传人

大家相信人传人, 但是没相信无症状传染。

这么糊涂,我以后少说话。
a
aawolverine
美国媒体是最爱和床铺唱反调的,可是在这次病毒开始在中国爆发时,所有媒体,CDC和WHO都论调一致的安慰大家"low risk to Americans". 难道突然间媒体和科学界这么听床铺话了么?还是床铺和欧美领导人都被科学界误导了?
a
aawolverine
美国科学界不相信人传人这件事是有记录的。我记得当时是CDC开会明确说不会人传人,中国这么说是因为中国方面无法解释为什么武汉会突然爆这么多人出来。 他们当时还说加拿大的一个P4研究所已经做过实验不可能人传人。。这个会议总结回头去找应该找得到的。

我当时信了,所以CDC什么措施都没有我还觉得没什么。

现在整个美国都不戴口罩,也是因为他们还没有相信气溶胶这个说法。
汤圆 发表于 3/24/2020 8:10:05 AM

不戴口罩是因为真没口罩了。从武汉病毒一月份开始起美国就买不到口罩了。一方面粉红扫光高端医疗口罩,另一方面,低端口罩生产早就外包出欧美了。希望美国人终于能明白全床铺为什么要打贸易战
f
fufusix
美国媒体是最爱和床铺唱反调的,可是在这次病毒开始在中国爆发时,所有媒体,CDC和WHO都论调一致的安慰大家"low risk to Americans". 难道突然间媒体和科学界这么听床铺话了么?还是床铺和欧美领导人都被科学界误导了?
aawolverine 发表于 3/24/2020 8:19:30 AM

实事求是的说,病毒在中国爆发时,媒体都忙着和民主党弹劾Trump呢。
萌新老刘
回复 93楼lilinana的帖子 who专家组现在剔除了美国顶尖专家? 他们会通报吧
汤圆

不戴口罩是因为真没口罩了。从武汉病毒一月份开始起美国就买不到口罩了。一方面粉红扫光高端医疗口罩,另一方面,低端口罩生产早就外包出欧美了。希望美国人终于能明白全床铺为什么要打贸易战

aawolverine 发表于 3/24/2020 8:27:13 AM


你看不到隔壁帖子里医院不允许戴口罩吗? 口罩不足不正是准备不充分的结果吗?

不要夹带你的私货。 你要骂谁也好赞美川普也好, 这论坛上多的是帖子, 你还可以自己开一个。不要见帖子就来宣传你的东西。
c
cuzemel
这是FAUCI接受SCIENCE杂志访问的内容 https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/i-m-going-keep-pushing-anthony-fauci-tries-make-white-house-listen-facts-pandemic 不说这个杂志的问题非常政治化,像FAUCI这样的成员,完全就是在替自己推卸责任,早就该立马裁掉。不是个TEAM PLAYER。你的领导你说服不了就自己走人啊,在背后放冷箭真的太猥琐。
y
yoda01
谁喊的“大号flu”谁负责。
cathytree 发表于 3/23/2020 6:59:48 AM

你是带任务的外宣吧?现在认为你扫空美国的口罩是厉害国的指示吧?
c
cuzemel


你看不到隔壁帖子里医院不允许戴口罩吗? 口罩不足不正是准备不充分的结果吗?

不要夹带你的私货。 你要骂谁也好赞美川普也好, 这论坛上多的是帖子, 你还可以自己开一个。不要见帖子就来宣传你的东西。

汤圆 发表于 3/24/2020 9:05:48 AM


那段一大堆人捐口罩回中国后,确实完全买不到口罩了,网上店里什么都没了。如果你没试图买过口罩,不知道买不到口罩的事实,那就有点怪了。
汤圆

不戴口罩是因为真没口罩了。从武汉病毒一月份开始起美国就买不到口罩了。一方面粉红扫光高端医疗口罩,另一方面,低端口罩生产早就外包出欧美了。希望美国人终于能明白全床铺为什么要打贸易战

aawolverine 发表于 3/24/2020 8:27:13 AM


我说错一个纠正一下, 那时CDC的会议说的是不相信有无症状传染, 他们是相信人传人的。
g
goldengate
这是FAUCI接受SCIENCE杂志访问的内容
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/i-m-going-keep-pushing-anthony-fauci-tries-make-white-house-listen-facts-pandemic

不说这个杂志的问题非常政治化,像FAUCI这样的成员,完全就是在替自己推卸责任,早就该立马裁掉。不是个TEAM PLAYER。你的领导你说服不了就自己走人啊,在背后放冷箭真的太猥琐。
cuzemel 发表于 3/24/2020 9:42:50 AM

他是老油条了。记者问他对WHO怎么看,他都是各种表扬谭赛得,一句批评的话都不会说的。