1 person out of 200 people who are exposed to a COVID-19 positive individual, will become COVID-19 positive (0.5% transmission rate in the general public) If you are in close contact with a person who is COVID-19 positive (such as living with a person who has tested positive), your likelihood of contracting the infection is 10% 80% of the population may experience mild symptoms, such as fever or flu-like symptoms that they treat at home 15% may seek medical care, such as visiting an Urgent Care or Emergency Department 5% may require critical care, meaning being admitted as an inpatient 1.6% of confirmed cases (confirmed cases representing between 5-10% of all infections in the community) will die There is an incubation period of 2-14 days, meaning the period between exposure to an infection and the appearance of the first symptoms, the average case being 2-8 days A vaccine is estimated to be developed in about 9-12 months
1 person out of 200 people who are exposed to a COVID-19 positive individual, will become COVID-19 positive (0.5% transmission rate in the general public) If you are in close contact with a person who is COVID-19 positive (such as living with a person who has tested positive), your likelihood of contracting the infection is 10% xinlaide 发表于 3/7/2020 11:45:29 AM
close contact好像是2米以内10分鐘以上。這個條件以外的大概就是公共空間。0.5%是一次的感染率，這個幾率是可以叠加的，比如你去一次有帶病毒者的costco，中的幾率是0.5%，你去200次，中的幾率就是100%。
1 person out of 200 people who are exposed to a COVID-19 positive individual, will become COVID-19 positive (0.5% transmission rate in the general public)
If you are in close contact with a person who is COVID-19 positive (such as living with a person who has tested positive), your likelihood of contracting the infection is 10%
80% of the population may experience mild symptoms, such as fever or flu-like symptoms that they treat at home
15% may seek medical care, such as visiting an Urgent Care or Emergency Department
5% may require critical care, meaning being admitted as an inpatient
1.6% of confirmed cases (confirmed cases representing between 5-10% of all infections in the community) will die
There is an incubation period of 2-14 days, meaning the period between exposure to an infection and the appearance of the first symptoms, the average case being 2-8 days
A vaccine is estimated to be developed in about 9-12 months
close contact好像是2米以内10分鐘以上。這個條件以外的大概就是公共空間。0.5%是一次的感染率，這個幾率是可以叠加的，比如你去一次有帶病毒者的costco，中的幾率是0.5%，你去200次，中的幾率就是100%。
假设前面说的是对的，假设每次去都是Costco都是有且只有一个病人，去200次中的概率是（1-0.995)^200=36.7%，不是200*0.005=百分之百。
你该不会是把0.5%乘以了200吧？那如果去300次, 变成150%是不是说明你开始传染别人了? 笑死人了。
你这是200次没有一次中的概率，200次中至少中一次的概率是1减去你这个数字，也就是63.3%
概率是体育老师教的？
写反了。不是0.005的200次方。
是1-（0.995的200次方）。0.633
你说的对。回帖时正在忙别的，大意了。
对。谢谢你们的补充。