1）Natural recombination – looks like this is not likely at all 因为insert那段没找到和bat cov相似的部分
2）(2) Lab-origin – seems most likely. (2a) Lab-origin, vaccine type. (2a1) Lab-origin, vaccine type, escaped. If this is an experimental vaccine type, escaped from a lab, it is by definition contagious
and the lab may have been working to modify the transmissibility. Such modifications could have resulted in a super-transmissible virus, which also happens to have more pathogenic capacity. The R0 does appear elevated. Such a virus would infect anyone, everyone, but would not be overly lethal to the entire population. A lab worker could have picked it up.
(2a2) Lab-origin, vaccine type, administered, tested on humans in China. If this scenario is true, then the rest of the world need not worry so much. Vaccines of this type (SARS, etc) have notoriously bad reputations because the animal studies resulted in high mortality in older animals upon secondary challenge. Since the rest of the world was not vaccinated w/an experimental coronovirus w/an extra SARS-like spike protein, we would not be sensitized and the older population (50+) would not be at increased risk.
1）Natural recombination – looks like this is not likely at all 因为insert那段没找到和bat cov相似的部分
2）(2) Lab-origin – seems most likely. (2a) Lab-origin, vaccine type. (2a1) Lab-origin, vaccine type, escaped. If this is an experimental vaccine type, escaped from a lab, it is by definition contagious
and the lab may have been working to modify the transmissibility. Such modifications could have resulted in a super-transmissible virus, which also happens to have more pathogenic capacity. The R0 does appear elevated. Such a virus would infect anyone, everyone, but would not be overly lethal to the entire population. A lab worker could have picked it up.
(2a2) Lab-origin, vaccine type, administered, tested on humans in China. If this scenario is true, then the rest of the world need not worry so much. Vaccines of this type (SARS, etc) have notoriously bad reputations because the animal studies resulted in high mortality in older animals upon secondary challenge. Since the rest of the world was not vaccinated w/an experimental coronovirus w/an extra SARS-like spike protein, we would not be sensitized and the older population (50+) would not be at increased risk.
今早看了一篇blog，估计作者受了老印blast一文的启发，从2019nCoV与众不同的insert里发现了丝丝痕迹（不过和老印的paper的第一版一样，homologous sequence不算长）
但是和老印paper的共同点是，这段东西在其它已知的bat cov里找不到
这段sequence对改变 传染力 貌似有很大影响（云南🦇因为没有这段insert从来没有出现在我们的视野中）
作者有些想法我看了觉得貌似说得通，转过来大家看看：
1）Natural recombination – looks like this is not likely at all
因为insert那段没找到和bat cov相似的部分
2）(2) Lab-origin – seems most likely.
(2a) Lab-origin, vaccine type.
(2a1) Lab-origin, vaccine type, escaped.
If this is an experimental vaccine type, escaped from a lab, it is by definition contagious
and the lab may have been working to modify the transmissibility.
Such modifications could have resulted in a super-transmissible virus, which also happens to
have more pathogenic capacity. The R0 does appear elevated. Such a virus would infect anyone, everyone,
but would not be overly lethal to the entire population. A lab worker could have picked it up.
(2a2) Lab-origin, vaccine type, administered, tested on humans in China.
If this scenario is true, then the rest of the world need not worry so much. Vaccines of
this type (SARS, etc) have notoriously bad reputations because the animal studies resulted
in high mortality in older animals upon secondary challenge. Since the rest of the world
was not vaccinated w/an experimental coronovirus w/an extra SARS-like spike protein, we would
not be sensitized and the older population (50+) would not be at increased risk.
作者排除了是设计的生化武器的可能，因为没有像spanish flu那样对20-24强致死
（我觉得这个存疑）
看下来，我觉得如果从程序上来看武毒所并没有失控，只是科学水平或者说reproducibility不到位，导致了还在调试的疫苗从试验中泄露，是很有可能的
这个也不算rp问题...
https://jameslyonsweiler.com/2020/02/02/moderately-strong-confirmation-of-a-laboratory-origin-of-2019-ncov/
注：作者是个反疫苗主义者
但是基于兼听则明，大家可以看一下
隔壁楼也在讨论是不是给🐷做的疫苗，然后出了问题
没仔细看主楼？
这是另一个实验室