Stock market is one of the leading indicators of the economy, Which tend to rise or fall in advance of the rest of the ecomony by around 12 to 24 monthes. There are no clear signals of the ressision now.
consumer spending是最主要动力。wsj 12/20/2019年的一篇文章，题目“Consumer Spending Strengthens Headed Into Year End U.S. household spending, a key driver of the economy, rose in November, along with higher income and more positive views of the economy“。 过去一整年都是这种状况。主要是就业形势好，消费者信心高。新的贸易政策使得一部分蓝领工作回到美国，失业率50年来新低，3.4%左右。
美国的政治风向变了,美国会越来越好. 上诉法院裁决允许特朗普政府动用36亿美元军事资金建边境墙 美国一家联邦上诉法院准许特朗普(Donald Trump)政府动用数十亿美元军事建设资金，实施沿美墨边境修建承诺已久的边境墙的计划。 得克萨斯州的一家法院近期做出裁决，阻止这项支出，特朗普政府随后向上一级法院申请延迟该裁决生效，位于新奥尔良的美国联邦第五巡回上诉法院(The Fifth U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals)周三批准了特朗普政府的这一申请。 美国国防部这笔36亿美元的资金是特朗普政府打算今年用于修建边境墙的资金的重要组成部分，美国政府的目标是到2020年底时修建长约500英里（合804.67公里）的边境墙。 位于得克萨斯州埃尔帕索的一家联邦地区法院去年12月作出了阻止特朗普政府动用这笔资金的裁决。这笔资金原本是专门用于约127个国内外军事建筑项目。美国海关边境保护局(U.S. Customs and Border Protection)代理局长摩根(Mark Morgan)上月对记者称，若没有这笔资金，政府可能无法实现建设边境墙的目标。 在美国联邦第五巡回上诉法院做出允许特朗普政府动用这笔资金的命令中，两名分别由前总统里根和特朗普任命的法官为多数派，一名由奥巴马任命的法官持反对意见。该法院的这项命令并非对该案具体情况的最终裁决，但至少暂时为特朗普政府开了绿灯。 该法院的多数派援引了美国最高法院去年7月的一项命令，该命令允许特朗普政府推进动用军用资金修建边境屏障的相关计划。 该法院的多数派还称，作为起诉特朗普政府原告，得克萨斯州埃尔帕索县政府和权益倡导组织Border Network for Human Rights可能缺乏提起诉讼的资格。
A large workforce is critical for a pay-as-you-go system, but China is facing a larger aging population at the moment — and the country’s now-defunct one-child policy is partly to blame.
For nearly 30 years, China limited families from having more than one child, in an attempt to slow the country’s population growth rate. But the regulation is now taking a toll on its government-backed pension. China, like the U.S., has a public benefit program that relies on tax revenue from the workforce, and having so many more older residents than younger workers has become a burden to the system — one that already had trouble paying out its benefits.
The country increased the limit to two children in 2016, though the effects of that increase won’t be felt for years to come. The workforce will continue to decline into 2030, and then begin to tick upward thereafter by the higher birthrate from the new two-child policy, according to a 2018 report published in the Lancet, a medical journal.
Along with fewer people in the workforce, China also struggles with citizens living longer — a blessing, except where the pension system is concerned. The one-child policy led to an imbalance in the number of those aging, many of whom may find themselves in poverty. Older Chinese live in poverty at higher rates than the rest of the globe. The rate of people 60 and older living in poverty in urban areas of China is 4.6%, compared with an average 3.4% elsewhere, but the rate for those living in poverty in rural areas is 22.3%, compared with the global average of 7.8%, according to HelpAge International, a London-based nongovernmental organization focused on elderly issues.
China is also in the midst of pension reform. The country began expanding pension coverage in 2003, in part to assist elderly residents in rural areas who are rarely covered by the program. The basic principles of China’s system include employers and employees both making contributions to pensions, medical and unemployment funds, and having local governments manage insurance funds, according to the China Labour Bulletin (CLB). Under the reform, social insurance benefits are expected to follow workers wherever they go.
Still, even with these new provisions, many workers may eventually retire with little or no benefits, and the country is moving toward a system that relies heavily on individual contributions, the CLB said. “They’re IOUs — not a real pre-funded system — and the Chinese are very upfront about this,” said Tim Kochis, chief executive officer of consulting firm Kochis Global and vice chair of the board of the Asia Foundation, an international nonprofit committed to improving the lives of people in developing Asian countries. “The economics of it don’t work.”
Not only did the policy affect the efficiency of the country’s pension, but it has also put extra pressure on young individuals, who are expected to care for themselves, their parents and in some cases, their grandparents, too. Many Chinese citizens traditionally care for their elderly family members, physically and financially. “You have an inverted pyramid,” Kochis said. “They’ve set themselves up for a serious problem, from a cultural expectation standpoint.”
consumer spending是最主要动力。wsj 12/20/2019年的一篇文章，题目“Consumer Spending Strengthens Headed Into Year End U.S. household spending, a key driver of the economy, rose in November, along with higher income and more positive views of the economy“。 过去一整年都是这种状况。主要是就业形势好，消费者信心高。新的贸易政策使得一部分蓝领工作回到美国，失业率50年来新低，3.4%左右。 conmen 发表于 1/9/2020 12:09:26 PM
Stock market is one of the leading indicators of the economy, Which tend to rise or fall in advance of the rest of the ecomony by around 12 to 24 monthes. There are no clear signals of the ressision now.
mall人多就代表经济繁荣？
那加拿大嘴都笑歪了，多伦多eaton center是美洲客流量最大mall
mall里人多和经济好坏一点关系都没有
系统提示：若遇到视频无法播放请点击下方链接
https://www.youtube.com/embed/yh3teJdkhlE
全世界给美国输血
And tax cut.
经济好是找到新的经济增长点，科技突破。 就像克林顿时代互联网出现，带动所有行业，大大小小公司如雨后春笋依托新经济。
现在就是小打小闹，经济和奥巴马时代没有本质区别。
制造业没回归，gdp上下小波荡，经济没有新增长点没有新产业。走的还是老路子。
是的
就是决策的问题
底层的买单
你，即使知道recession将近，can you afford to not have exposure in the stock market?
越不投越被priced out
其实大家都一样，中国之前30年，也是很大部分靠印钱，中国握着好牌（除了politics），因为之前那么久基础教育做的还是可以的
制造业回不来了
不是因果关系，也不能说一点关系都没有吧
自由资本主义
最大利润 最大利润
老工业区, 铁锈地带 , 穷人区 衰落到恐怖
报个zip code?我这边的mall总是满的，我已经好几年没周末去过mall了，一定要去的话只敢weekday去。mall里面的鼎泰丰和ramen店weekday下午四点去还要排队呢（听说周末更夸张，要排2小时）。
美中贸易战期间，制造链设在中国的国际企业为躲避关税，生产基地纷纷移往其他地区，中国也落居美国的第3大贸易伙伴。《南华早报》指出，中国成本上升、规范繁琐、地缘政治动荡，即使美中下周就会签署第1阶段的贸易协议，制造商出走潮依然会持续。
逐渐认清贸易战
《南华早报》根据美国普查局11月数据的计算，与2018年6月（关税战开始前1个月）相比，亚洲国家对美进口有显著上升，如越南猛增了51.6%、台湾达30%、泰国为19.7%、印尼14.6%、马来西亚11.3%；墨西哥则增加12.7%，与加拿大成为美国前2贸易伙伴。
企业顾问公司Tractus亚洲董事总经理John Evans表示，只要是需要出口到美国的厂商，都看到贸易战不会轻易结束。虽然去年第4季还是有很多公司在观望，认为美中会签1个巨大的协议，但2国宣布只有第1阶段协议后，他接到了更多谘询的电话。
报导称，仍有企业选择缩减业务规模并待在中国，但更多的情况是中国成本上升、出口不确定性大，导致大型企业移出。有不愿具名的苹果供应商表示，苹果称若他们要继续接单，那就得计划离开中国，迫使该厂开发东南亚新产线。
企业仍考虑移出中国
爱沙尼亚玩具商Gerardo’s Toys原在上海制造，最大出口市场为美国，即使去年12月15日美暂不征中制玩具关税，执行长Allar Peetma依然有所戒备，他表示：「成本在上涨，但客户不知道，还想要求价格不变。我们计划在欧盟自动化生产，应可保持成本和价格相同，且品质比在中国手工制作还好。」
日本磁力玩具商Sumaku在宁波、澳门等地有工厂并正在升级成自动化生产线，然而成本亦在上涨，若最后也被关税打击，那就会迅速转移到印尼制造。该公司称，虽然美国目前只占小部份销售，但是是成长目标市场之一，因此有应对计划。
法国滑板车Globber的工厂从杭州移往东莞，贸易战期间成本多出了15%至30%，但同样因12月15日美国撤回关税而暂时松口气。执行长Pascal Comte仍说，已经在考虑下一步可能会发生的事，短期内关税一定会影响销售。长期来说，最好的选择是越南，不过转移、寻找人力、营运都需要一段时间。
香港照明设备商Capstone International的总经理Larry Sloven则说，越南产能已满，但泰国还有空间，即使从泰国输美的时间是从中国的2倍，他还是不愿意承担在广东生产的多余代价。「即使明天就取消关税，大多数人也不会回来中国。」但他也表示，泰国还是有些原料无法采购到或是不够便宜，比如说外包装在中生产再海运至泰国都还比较便宜，可能需要找到用中国材料在泰制造、又能贴上「泰国生产」标签的微妙平衡。
中国人口严重老龄化, 未富先老,家庭负债已经超过美国金融危机之前,一屁股房贷,未来延迟退休,养老金破产或者被印钱稀释掉, 中国未来工薪族朝不保夕,很惨的,中国人的会感觉和以前差异很大. 美国反正都这样,不可能再差了.
对中国这个人口大国来说,高端工作毕竟是少数, 提供不了几个就业, 失去美国市场中国只会大范围失业, 中国人口大国发展人工智能消灭就业是灾难, 延迟退休, 大范围失业,加上物价飞涨, 人口严重老龄化家庭负担越来越重, 啃不了老,还要给老人花钱, 对普通中国人来说以后会越来越惨.
中国的所谓好牌已经打烂了,外企在撤离中国,民企倒闭,中国大范围失业潮.
你知道的太少了,美国制造业正在回归, 很多制造业企业在为回归做准备, 从新启动了APPRENTICE PROGRAM. 美国人动手能力很强的, 其实比中国人死读书强.
全世界其它国家比美国烂, 美国地理位置好,人均资源丰富.
Great point.
美国总统特朗普一石激起千层浪！中东局势变幻莫测，受影响的不只是该地区，连带亚洲区也会被牵连，油价若持续急飙，恐导致中国及印度通胀升温，令经济卷入滞胀旋涡。
外国传媒报道，亚洲的石油买家愈来愈担心，伊拉克卷入美国和伊朗之间不断恶化的争端，可能会扰乱这个重要中东供应国的发货。
消息人士透露，最少有5名中国和印度的买家表示，由于伊拉克品质的石油原本就供不应求，这个石油输出国组织(OPEC)第2大产油国供应减少，后果可能尤其具挑战性。
虽然伊拉克的石油生产没有受到实质威胁，但美国总统特朗普周日(5日)晚间威胁，如果伊拉克执行议会的投票结果将外国军队驱逐出境，就会对其实施严厉制裁。针对伊朗的贸易措施已导致来自这个伊斯兰共和国的供货变成涓涓细流。
伊拉克过去5年，将产量提高了大约50%，是亚洲最可靠的中东供应商之一，但在一名伊朗顶级指挥官上周五(3日)在巴格达国际机场附近被杀后，伊拉克也被拖入了美国和伊朗之间不断升级的争端。伊拉克议会谴责无人机袭击侵犯了其主权。
伊拉克的旗舰产品巴士拉轻质原油是一种中质含硫原油，特别受到亚洲炼油厂的追捧，而美国对伊朗的制裁和墨西哥产量下降，已导致其供应相对短缺。同时，由于替代油品生产国委内瑞拉受到限制，品质稍低的巴士拉重质原油也有需求。
安迅思驻上海的大宗商品分析师李莉表示，中国一直非常依赖伊拉克的供应，过去几个月，伊拉克一直是3大供应商之一。
【油价上升尤其影响亚洲】
资料显示，全球每日原油需求约1亿桶，单是亚太区就占了逾35%，惟亚太区是全球产油量最小的地区，占环球总产量不足10%，故区内经济表现很视乎油价。举例来说，只要布兰特期油每上升10美元，印度国内生产总值料会减少0.4个百分点，就该国去年第3季经济增长放缓至4.5%而言，一旦油价急飙，“穿四”的机会十分大。
【花旗：中国1月通胀恐达5%】
花旗认为，在当前油价飙升的情况下，中国本以大幅攀升的通胀将进一步向上，惟这种涨势不会持久，可能也不会影响2020年的货币政策宽松步伐。
花旗指出，随着油价上涨，加上较低的比较基数推动汽车燃料、石化产品和塑料包装等其他副产品的成本上扬，中国1月通胀将达到5%。
由于中国严重依赖外国石油供应，随着进口成本上升的影响波及到下游部门，1月生产者价格指数(PPI、即货物出厂价格)也有可能止跌回升。
中国去年12月通胀数据将于周四(1月9日)发布。
川普说, 如果美国债务一笔勾销不用还的话, 才OK, 所以川普现在就是想印钱, 呵呵.
长远看
谁来供养？中国老人已超2亿 2050年将达4.87亿 占总人口34.9%
最新报告指出，自中国于1999年进入高龄化社会到2018年，这19年以来高龄人口增加1.18亿人，也是全球唯一一个高龄人口超过2亿人的国家。预计到2050年前后，中国老年人口数将达到峰值4.87亿，占总人口的34.9%。
据《法新社》报导，报告指出，2018年年底中国高龄人口达总人口17.9%，约共有2.49亿人，光是2017年内成为高龄的人口就超过1千万，足见高龄人口增长之快速。在1999年至2018年间，中国高龄人口增加了1.18亿人，目前是全球唯一一个高龄人口超过2亿人的国家。
中国全国老龄办常务副主任王建军在中央和国家机关离退休干部人口老龄化国情教育大讲堂做报告时说，预计到2050年前后，中国老年人口数将达到峰值4.87亿，占总人口的34.9%，占全球老年人口的四分之一，也就是说全球每4个老年人中就有一个是中国人。
How China’s one-child policy helped to endanger its retirees
Many workers may retire with little or no benefits
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-chinas-one-child-policy-helped-to-endanger-its-retirees-2019-09-06
A large workforce is critical for a pay-as-you-go system, but China is facing a larger aging population at the moment — and the country’s now-defunct one-child policy is partly to blame.
For nearly 30 years, China limited families from having more than one child, in an attempt to slow the country’s population growth rate. But the regulation is now taking a toll on its government-backed pension. China, like the U.S., has a public benefit program that relies on tax revenue from the workforce, and having so many more older residents than younger workers has become a burden to the system — one that already had trouble paying out its benefits.
The country increased the limit to two children in 2016, though the effects of that increase won’t be felt for years to come. The workforce will continue to decline into 2030, and then begin to tick upward thereafter by the higher birthrate from the new two-child policy, according to a 2018 report published in the Lancet, a medical journal.
Along with fewer people in the workforce, China also struggles with citizens living longer — a blessing, except where the pension system is concerned. The one-child policy led to an imbalance in the number of those aging, many of whom may find themselves in poverty. Older Chinese live in poverty at higher rates than the rest of the globe. The rate of people 60 and older living in poverty in urban areas of China is 4.6%, compared with an average 3.4% elsewhere, but the rate for those living in poverty in rural areas is 22.3%, compared with the global average of 7.8%, according to HelpAge International, a London-based nongovernmental organization focused on elderly issues.
China is also in the midst of pension reform. The country began expanding pension coverage in 2003, in part to assist elderly residents in rural areas who are rarely covered by the program. The basic principles of China’s system include employers and employees both making contributions to pensions, medical and unemployment funds, and having local governments manage insurance funds, according to the China Labour Bulletin (CLB). Under the reform, social insurance benefits are expected to follow workers wherever they go.
Still, even with these new provisions, many workers may eventually retire with little or no benefits, and the country is moving toward a system that relies heavily on individual contributions, the CLB said. “They’re IOUs — not a real pre-funded system — and the Chinese are very upfront about this,” said Tim Kochis, chief executive officer of consulting firm Kochis Global and vice chair of the board of the Asia Foundation, an international nonprofit committed to improving the lives of people in developing Asian countries. “The economics of it don’t work.”
Not only did the policy affect the efficiency of the country’s pension, but it has also put extra pressure on young individuals, who are expected to care for themselves, their parents and in some cases, their grandparents, too. Many Chinese citizens traditionally care for their elderly family members, physically and financially. “You have an inverted pyramid,” Kochis said. “They’ve set themselves up for a serious problem, from a cultural expectation standpoint.”
天朝经济学的美国版