加州是winner take all by Congressional District. 没有可能全赢，但是也不会全输。
California’s primary is a winner-take-all system by Congressional District. The Presidential candidate who wins any given Congressional District will receive all 3 delegate appointments for that district. In addition, 10 at large delegates are awarded to the presidential candidate receiving the largest number of votes statewide.
某条留言： I grew up in Indiana. Hoosiers do not like arrogant smart asses like Trump, and to a lesser extent, Cruz. Kasich will do better than expected there, being from nearby Ohio and being by far the most congenial of the three. It might not be enough to win, but the state will be split.
某条留言： I grew up in Indiana. Hoosiers do not like arrogant smart asses like Trump, and to a lesser extent, Cruz. Kasich will do better than expected there, being from nearby Ohio and being by far the most congenial of the three. It might not be enough to win, but the state will be split. wobuaichicu 发表于 4/20/2016 6:49:47 PM
From NY Times:
At first glance, the state looks as if it should be a good one for Mr. Trump. It’s a mostly working-class state with below-average educational attainment among white voters, which has been a strong correlate for Trump support. He has run well in states along or near the Ohio River, including Illinois, Missouri and Kentucky. He lost Ohio, but it was John Kasich’s home state. Mr. Trump also won Michigan, which borders Indiana to the north.
The state does not have party registration, which makes it modestly more challenging and costly for pollsters to conduct surveys of the voter registration file. Many of the prolific public pollsters employ the random-digit dialing method, like Quinnipiac, and have no history in the state. I suspect that a few pollsters will ultimately field surveys, but there won’t be many.
"If he gets 1,150 [delegates], then I think he can get the unbound delegates on his side," ABC News political analyst Matthew Dowd said on "Good Morning America" today..
James Campbell, a professor of political science at the University at Buffalo, was slightly more conservative with his estimate, "My guess is the tipping point is about 1,175 to 1,200, but this is a guess," Campbell said. "So much depends on the number of unbound delegates and their willingness to support Trump."
"If he gets 1,150 [delegates], then I think he can get the unbound delegates on his side," ABC News political analyst Matthew Dowd said on "Good Morning America" today..
James Campbell, a professor of political science at the University at Buffalo, was slightly more conservative with his estimate, "My guess is the tipping point is about 1,175 to 1,200, but this is a guess," Campbell said. "So much depends on the number of unbound delegates and their willingness to support Trump."
应该不是迷魂汤，TRUMP也没那么傻。这是我几天前看到的： Politico reports Carl Rove from the PAC American Crossroads is warming to Trump. It seems he calculates Hillary has such huge unfavorables it is becoming clear Trump can beat her. He also realizes that if Cruz steals the election with the help of GOP insiders, the Republican party will damage itself from within from which it will take years to recover. He made this pitch to major donors recently. Megyn Kelly visited Trump towers to call a truce. More will peal off soon into his camp because they do not want to be left in the dust.
应该不是迷魂汤，TRUMP也没那么傻。这是我几天前看到的： Politico reports Carl Rove from the PAC American Crossroads is warming to Trump. It seems he calculates Hillary has such huge unfavorables it is becoming clear Trump can beat her. He also realizes that if Cruz steals the election with the help of GOP insiders, the Republican party will damage itself from within from which it will take years to recover. He made this pitch to major donors recently. Megyn Kelly visited Trump towers to call a truce. More will peal off soon into his camp because they do not want to be left in the dust.
Donald Trump said Thursday he would change the Republican Party platform's position on abortion to include exceptions for rape, incest and the life of the mother.
Trump made the remarks during a town hall on the "Today" show on NBC on Thursday morning when host Savannah Guthrie asked him about abortion exceptions.
"The Republican platform every four years has a provision that states that the right of the unborn child should not be infringed," Guthrie said. "And it makes no exceptions for rape, for incest, for the life of the mother. Would you want to change the Republican platform to include the (abortion) exceptions that you have?"
"Yes, I would. Yes, I would. Absolutely," Trump said. "For the three exceptions, I would."
Currently, the Republican platform abortion policy reads: "We assert the sanctity of human life and affirm that the unborn child has a fundamental individual right to life which cannot be infringed."
Donald Trump said Thursday he would change the Republican Party platform's position on abortion to include exceptions for rape, incest and the life of the mother.
Trump made the remarks during a town hall on the "Today" show on NBC on Thursday morning when host Savannah Guthrie asked him about abortion exceptions.
"The Republican platform every four years has a provision that states that the right of the unborn child should not be infringed," Guthrie said. "And it makes no exceptions for rape, for incest, for the life of the mother. Would you want to change the Republican platform to include the (abortion) exceptions that you have?"
"Yes, I would. Yes, I would. Absolutely," Trump said. "For the three exceptions, I would."
Currently, the Republican platform abortion policy reads: "We assert the sanctity of human life and affirm that the unborn child has a fundamental individual right to life which cannot be infringed."
如何知道的？
不过看了昨晚的投票数，大选时纽约这个深蓝州估计GOP还是搞不过的
加州是closed primary, 只有注册成共和党才能选共和党的总统候选人，
注册有截至日期的。现在还来得及。赶紧注册成共和党。
不要问截至日期是什么，现在就注册！ 只要花两分钟时间就注册完毕。
http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/voter-registration
或者 https://covr.sos.ca.gov/?language=en-US
手机或者电脑上就可以注册完成的！ 非常容易！！！
有些人不进高楼就错过了，要团结可以团结的所有力量
妹妹可以把加州和其他州要注册的信息单独开一楼吗？让更多人知道并参与，谢谢啦！还有就是同学们可以把这些注册的信息在fb或推特，微信上发布出去，加大推广范围啊！
Trump如果输加州，基本上1237就很危险了。
PS，只剩620票左右了。加州的同学们加油啊！帮忙顶一下船长吧～
unbounded? still counting?
可以非常肯定的是奸臣吃了鸭蛋
听得眼圈都红了，这老头就是一个大号的正能量体
收到voter registration card了，检查了好几遍确定党派是REP
他前2个星期在纽约州开大会、演讲、上电视节目等等，确实很卖力。60%的选票不是白来的。为了拿到1237，他必须得在后面所有的州都拼了。
美国变成了黑墨国，已经有了黑人总统，现在有了黑人钞票。以后还有更劲爆的！
20元美钞上面的人头像，将由著名废除奴隶运动的哈莉特·塔布曼（Harriet Tubman)，取代前美国总统杰克森(Andrew Jackson)。
Polico新闻网报导，美国财政部长卢杰克（Jack Lew）将在明天(21日)宣布这项决定。
20元美钞上的杰克森人头像，因为杰克森曾经使用黑奴，成为人权人士抨击的目标，而希望将他的人头像换下。将取代他的塔布曼，自己，曾为奴隶，后来成为解放黑奴运动
大将。
正好在看这新闻。。。。明白了什么叫秋后算账。
今天他tweet "Off to Indiana!" 疯狂地拉票中。。。
你想被非法移民包围吗？
你想将来孩子在学校被用西班牙语教学吗？
你想体验AA的摧残吗？
你想将来四年增加四位左派大法官吗？
你想引入大批穆斯林吗？
你想你女儿在学校locker room里被变态男随意看换衣服洗澡吗？
你想你的孩子们从小就被洗脑当同性恋变态光荣吗？
你想你的孩子们在学校被common core教成二傻子吗？
你想你的孩子们每天在学校被别的孩子带着享受大麻吗？
最后，你想民主党上台吗？
如果不想，请选择Trump.只有他最坚定反对非法移民，也只有他能战胜民主党候选希拉里。
谢谢
发现牛人总是那些天生不需要太多睡眠的。。。
印第安纳的poll 数据不好
这简直就是鞭尸了吧。。。
还没看到Indiana的poll。有link么？
我刚才搜了一下居然没找到。之前是在trump的Facebook还是某个网址看的，等我继续找。。。。
找到这个数据倒是Trump第一：https://www.isidewith.com/2016-republican-primary-poll/801555698/9333314
加州是winner take all by Congressional District. 没有可能全赢，但是也不会全输。
California’s primary is a winner-take-all system by Congressional District. The Presidential candidate who wins any given Congressional District will receive all 3 delegate appointments for that district. In addition, 10 at large delegates are awarded to the presidential candidate receiving the largest number of votes statewide.
https://www.cagop.org/national-delegation/
I grew up in Indiana. Hoosiers do not like arrogant smart asses like Trump, and to a lesser extent, Cruz. Kasich will do better than expected there, being from nearby Ohio and being by far the most congenial of the three. It might not be enough to win, but the state will be split.
From NY Times:
At first glance, the state looks as if it should be a good one for Mr. Trump. It’s a mostly working-class state with below-average educational attainment among white voters, which has been a strong correlate for Trump support. He has run well in states along or near the Ohio River, including Illinois, Missouri and Kentucky. He lost Ohio, but it was John Kasich’s home state. Mr. Trump also won Michigan, which borders Indiana to the north.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/20/upshot/the-most-important-primary-is-wait-indiana.html
这人的任务是不是就是阻止trump进白宫啊
The state does not have party registration, which makes it modestly more challenging and costly for pollsters to conduct surveys of the voter registration file. Many of the prolific public pollsters employ the random-digit dialing method, like Quinnipiac, and have no history in the state. I suspect that a few pollsters will ultimately field surveys, but there won’t be many.
The Real Magic Number That Donald Trump Needs to Hit Is Likely Lower Than 1,237 http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/real-magic-number-donald-trump-hit-lower-1237/story?id=38539256
"If he gets 1,150 [delegates], then I think he can get the unbound delegates on his side," ABC News political analyst Matthew Dowd said on "Good Morning America" today..
James Campbell, a professor of political science at the University at Buffalo, was slightly more conservative with his estimate, "My guess is the tipping point is about 1,175 to 1,200, but this is a guess," Campbell said. "So much depends on the number of unbound delegates and their willingness to support Trump."
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-republicans-idUSKCN0XH2O5
谢谢分享！
good signs...................
i thought it was a type of WARNS ....
感觉“主流媒体”的风向在慢慢转变。。。。。最好不要是迷魂汤
应该不是迷魂汤，TRUMP也没那么傻。这是我几天前看到的：
Politico reports Carl Rove from the PAC American Crossroads is warming to Trump. It seems he calculates Hillary has such huge unfavorables it is becoming clear Trump can beat her. He also realizes that if Cruz steals the election with the help of GOP insiders, the Republican party will damage itself from within from which it will take years to recover. He made this pitch to major donors recently.
Megyn Kelly visited Trump towers to call a truce. More will peal off soon into his camp because they do not want to be left in the dust.
takes 大笨象 toooooooooooooo long to figure this out
主流媒体一直想给民众灌输一种看法就是他们能控制选票，能指定政策，让人接受TRUMP必须要有1237才行。实际上美国这个国家的特点和体制就是ESTABLISHMENT不可能完全忽略民意的，UNBOUND DELEGATES也不可能完全听他们指挥，TRUMP只要越接近1237，导向TRUMP的墙头草会越来越多。
如果1236， CONTESTED CONVENTION不需要开了，直接是TRUMP。我上面贴里面的分析说1150，或者1175-1200，trump能拿到这个数字估计CONTESTED CONVENTION都不需要开了。
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/04/20/internal-campaign-memo-projects-trump-will-win-1400-delegates-at-gop-convention/
哇，心情一下好了很多。。。。
faint, these politicians are so dirty
那倒是。哎！
underwood啊
细思极恐的感觉。。。。。。
中央社：川普纽约州大胜 共和党高层态度软化
http://cnnews.rti.org.tw/news/detail/?recordId=265341
美国共和党总统参选人川普(Donald Trump)19日在纽约州初选大胜后，党高层20日开始讨论提名相关事宜。他们说，党内对川普接受度日高，但仍希望这位亿万富翁更积极修补和主流派的关系。
路透社报导，168位共和党全国委员会(RNC)成员来到佛罗里达州好莱坞(Hollywood)出席春季会议，将著重讨论目前在提名战领先的川普能否取得总统候选人资格。为期3天的会议在某海滨度假村召开，除了评估逐鹿白宫之战，也为7月可能在克里夫兰(Cleveland)召开「僵局代表大会」(contested convention)做好准备。
出身纽约的川普19日在家乡州击败德州联邦参议员克鲁兹(Ted Cruz)和俄亥俄州长凯西克(John Kasich)，对全国委员会成员是重要里程碑。他们表示，纽约州大胜后，川普可能一举跨越赢得提名所需的1,237张党代表票门槛，无须经过「僵局代表大会」考验。
全国委员会的新罕布夏州成员杜普里(Steve Duprey)表示：「1月时，相当多全国委员会成员不认为他有机会，现在却看到他大幅领先，可能在我们召开党代表大会前跨越1,237票的门槛。」
全国委员会成员表示，川普可以有所作为，化解他和全国委员会高层、包括和全国委员会主席蒲博思(Reince Priebus)的嫌隙。
代表华府的全国委员会成员卡培尔(Bob Kapel)注意到，川普19日晚间在纽约州发表胜选演说时语调已有缓和，希望川普继续走下去。
Trump实力在那摆着,再不服气就有点意气用事了
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/04/19/katrina-pierson-bernie-sanders-supporters-will-vote-for-donald-trump-if-hillary-clinton-wins-the-democratic-nomination/
如果桑得斯没有得到提名，桑的支持者就转投川普。
http://www.cnn.com/2016/04/21/politics/donald-trump-republican-platform-abortion/index.html
Donald Trump said Thursday he would change the Republican Party platform's position on abortion to include exceptions for rape, incest and the life of the mother.
Trump made the remarks during a town hall on the "Today" show on NBC on Thursday morning when host Savannah Guthrie asked him about abortion exceptions.
"The Republican platform every four years has a provision that states that the right of the unborn child should not be infringed," Guthrie said. "And it makes no exceptions for rape, for incest, for the life of the mother. Would you want to change the Republican platform to include the (abortion) exceptions that you have?"
"Yes, I would. Yes, I would. Absolutely," Trump said. "For the three exceptions, I would."
Currently, the Republican platform abortion policy reads: "We assert the sanctity of human life and affirm that the unborn child has a fundamental individual right to life which cannot be infringed."