Colorado1, Wyoming1 Delegates in Colorado are selected through a process that starts with the March 1st caucuses and culminates at the state convention on April 9th. Colorado Delegates can go to the national convention as unbound or bound to a candidate. The Wyoming precinct caucuses on March 1st do not bind any delegates, but they start a delegate selection process that culminates at the state convention on April 14-16. Delegates from Wyoming can be bound or unbound. Open** Republicans and Independents can vote in these primaries, but Democrats can't. * — Threshold Candidates have to reach a certain level of support to earn delegates 10% threshold: New Hampshire, Minnesota, Kansas, Maine, Rhode Island 20% threshold: Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Louisiana, Puerto Rico, Idaho, New York, Connecticut, Washington 15% threshold: Arkansas, Oklahoma, Michigan, Mississippi, District of Columbia, Utah, New Mexico 5% threshold: Massachusetts, Kentucky 13% threshold: Alaska # — Ceiling Candidates can win all at-large or all delegates by surpassing a certain level of support. The ceiling is 50 percent in Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Oklahoma, Texas, Vermont, Maine, Puerto Rico, Idaho, Michigan, Utah and Connecticut. The ceiling is 66 percent in Tennessee. The ceiling is 85 percent in Minnesota. If a candidate reaches the ceiling in Alabama, Oklahoma, Tennessee or Texas, he or she earns all the at-large delegates from the state. If a candidate reaches the ceiling in Georgia, Minnesota, Vermont, Maine, Puerto Rico, Idaho, Michigan, Utah or Connecticut, he or she earns all the at-large and congressional district delegates from the state. Arkansas: every candidate who gets over 15 percent gets one at-large delegate. If no candidate gets over 50 percent, the remaining delegates are allocated proportionally among those who get over 15 percent. If a candidate gets over 50 percent, he or she gets the remaining at-large delegates. ▽ — Congressional District Delegates Congressional district delegates are allocated according to results in that district rather than statewide. The rules are the same for the at-large and congressional delegates (e.g. same floor, same ceiling, proportional or WTA, etc.) in most states. Here are the states in which they differ significantly and the ways in which they differ: Arkansas — the congressional district delegates are allocated proportionally with no threshold, unless a candidate gets over 50 percent of the vote in that district. In that case they get all three delegates. Georgia and Minnesota — There's no ceiling in the congressional districts. Louisiana — There's no threshold in the congressional districts. Mississippi — There's not threshold in the congressional districts and if a candidate gets over 50 percent of the vote in a district, he or she gets all the delegates from that district. Illinois and Pennsylvania — at-large delegates are WTA by statewide vote, but congressional district delegates are elected directly. Missouri — Nine at-large delegates are allocated to the statewide winner, and five delegates are allocated to the winner of each congressional district. If a candidate gets over 50 percent he or she gets all the delegates. Connecticut — Plurality winner in each congressional district gets all three delegates. Rhode Island — If three candidates get over 10 percent in a congressional district, they each get one delegate. If any candidate gets over 67 percent in a district, they get all three delegates.
“To put it simply, bound delegates are "bound" by their state's choice in the primary or caucus process when the nominating convention rolls around. In other words, if a bound delegate is assigned to Donald Trump in one of the upcoming Super Tuesday primaries, that delegate will have to support Trump at the Republican National Convention in Cleveland, Ohio, this July. Pledged or unbound delegates, on the other hand, are only loosely committed to their state's preferences, though they often do tend to stick with those preferences. ”
Ben Carson on Hannity: I support Donald Trump over GOP establishment http://www.ethyper.com/ben-carson-on-hannity-i-support-donald-trump-over-gop-establishment.html
1) Donald Trump is very, very close to clinching the nomination.
--Marco Rubio is toast. That’s true even if he wins Florida. He hasn’t racked up victories in big states, and he’s fading, not rising. Ask not for whom the bell tolls. It tolls for Marco. --John Kasich has no path to the nomination, even if he wins Ohio. His only path was a deadlocked convention, and that won’t happen unless Trump falls down a manhole. Kasich has waged a decent, honorable campaign, has extensive experience governing, and knows how to work with Congress. Trumps appreciates those assets, knows they complement his own, and must be thinking of Kasich for VP. The Ohio governor won’t blow that by turning negative.
--Ted Cruz is still standing but he has a hidden weakness. And it’s devastating. He has not been able to expand beyond his solid base of evangelicals and ideological conservatives (whether they are economic conservatives or values conservatives). In a normal year, that might be enough for Cruz to win the primaries. Not this year. Cruz has won a lot of delegates, but if you can't win the Mississippi Republican primary, you aren't going to win in the Northeast.
--That leaves Trump. He faces grave difficulties in the general election, beginning with women and Hispanics, but he is on the glide path to win his party’s nomination.
2) Hillary Clinton’s loss in Michigan won’t stop her steady march to the nomination.
--Bernie Sanders, like The Donald, is selling the stuff that dreams are made of. Barack Obama did it in 2008, and it worked. This year, the message is angrier. It’s “shut up and listen to us, dammit.” Sanders voices that message, which is why lots of primary voters are feeling the Bern. (The exception is African-Americans, who remember Bill Clinton fondly and appreciate Hillary’s promise to continue the Obama presidency.) Since Bernie is waging an ideological battle and can fund his campaign with online donations, he has no incentive to exit the race. He’ll keep pushing Hillary to the left. In the fall, his voters will cast their lot with Hillary, but they won't be enthusiastic. They will be voting against the Republicans.
--As Hillary trudges forward, her party ought to worry about two things. First, she has been unable to put away a 74-year-old socialist from a small state with zero legislative accomplishments. That’s not exactly a sizzling campaign record. Second, she has more legal troubles than Perry Mason could handle. In public, she waves them off. In private, she must be worried. When your IT guy has immunity, the FBI has hacked your home-brew server, and the Bureau has 150 agents on the case, you better hope you have a loyal friend in the White House. The only thing standing between Hillary and the nomination is an indictment or refusal to answer FBI questions when they interview her later this spring.
3) The electorate is furious.
--It’s furious with Washington, Wall Street, hedge funds, big banks, lobbyists, fat cats in corner offices—all of them cutting special deals for themselves while average folks are left out. Voters know their real incomes are down. They know their retirements are in jeopardy, their kids are loaded with college debt, and everybody is looking at a tough job market. We are not in a recession, mind you, and employment is actually growing. No matter. All across the country, voters are saying, “We’re mad as hell and we aren’t gonna take it anymore.” That’s why the most damning indictment this year is to be called an “establishment candidate.” The second most damning is to receive Mitt Romney’s endorsement. If there was a ballot option for “tar-and-feather the lousy SOBs,” it would win in a landslide. Tuesday night proved it again.
Tarring and feathering is a form of public humiliation, used to enforce unofficial justice or revenge. It was used in feudal Europe and its colonies in the early modern period, as well as the early American frontier, mostly as a type of mob vengeance (compare Lynch law).
In a typical tar-and-feathers attack, the mob's victim was stripped to their waist. Liquid tar was either poured or painted onto the person while they were immobilized. Then the victim either had feathers thrown on them or was rolled around on a pile of feathers so they stuck to the tar. Often the victim was then paraded around town on a cart or wooden rail. The aim was to inflict enough miserable pain and humiliation on a person to make them either conform their behavior to the mob's demands or be driven from town.
The image of the tarred-and-feathered outlaw remains a metaphor for public humiliation. "To tar and feather someone" can mean "to punish or severely criticize that person"
Marco Rubio expressed regret Wednesday for his recent schoolyard taunts of Donald Trump, including poking fun at the size of Donald Trump's hands, mocking his spelling errors on Twitter and speculating that he may have urinated on himself during a debate.
"My kids were embarrassed by it, and I, you know, if I had to do it again, I wouldn’t," the Florida senator said in a clip of an MSNBC town hall set to air in full later Wednesday evening.
Rubio defended his attacks on Trump's business ventures, however, telling a questioner that he felt comfortable as a man of faith going after him as a " con man."
"When it comes to the fact that he is portraying himself as something that he’s not and has done this throughout his career," Rubio elaborated. "This time, the stakes are not a worthless $36,000 degree at Trump University. The stakes are the greatest nation on Earth," he said.
“You know why? Because in the end, you know what happened is — first of all, I think he had to be stood up to. I really do believe that," Rubio asserted. "But that said, that’s not the campaign I want to run.”
Todd then observed that Rubio did not look comfortable doing it.
“This is a guy that’s basically offended everyone for a year,” Rubio said . “That said, yeah, I don’t want to be that. If that’s what it takes to be president of the United States, then I don’t want to be president.”
He then quickly added, “I don’t think that’s what it takes to be president. In fact, I know it’s not what it takes. It’s not what we want from our next president, and if I had to do it again, I would have done that part differently. But not the stuff about his record on business.”
Marco Rubio expressed regret Wednesday for his recent schoolyard taunts of Donald Trump, including poking fun at the size of Donald Trump's hands, mocking his spelling errors on Twitter and speculating that he may have urinated on himself during a debate.
"My kids were embarrassed by it, and I, you know, if I had to do it again, I wouldn’t," the Florida senator said in a clip of an MSNBC town hall set to air in full later Wednesday evening.
Rubio defended his attacks on Trump's business ventures, however, telling a questioner that he felt comfortable as a man of faith going after him as a " con man."
"When it comes to the fact that he is portraying himself as something that he’s not and has done this throughout his career," Rubio elaborated. "This time, the stakes are not a worthless $36,000 degree at Trump University. The stakes are the greatest nation on Earth," he said.
“You know why? Because in the end, you know what happened is — first of all, I think he had to be stood up to. I really do believe that," Rubio asserted. "But that said, that’s not the campaign I want to run.”
Todd then observed that Rubio did not look comfortable doing it.
“This is a guy that’s basically offended everyone for a year,” Rubio said . “That said, yeah, I don’t want to be that. If that’s what it takes to be president of the United States, then I don’t want to be president.”
He then quickly added, “I don’t think that’s what it takes to be president. In fact, I know it’s not what it takes. It’s not what we want from our next president, and if I had to do it again, I would have done that part differently. But not the stuff about his record on business.”
The only times in U.S. history when the First Lady =/= President's Wife is when the President isn't married or if the President's wife isn't suitable to be the First Lady.
The only times in U.S. history when the First Lady =/= President's Wife is when the President isn't married or if the President's wife isn't suitable to be the First Lady.
泪点比较低，看到最后一句时没忍住落泪了，"when you become the president, I don't want you to worry for those guys who are giving tons of money to a lot of people, I want you to worry for us, for us."
泪点比较低，看到最后一句时没忍住落泪了，"when you become the president, I don't want you to worry for those guys who are giving tons of money to a lot of people, I want you to worry for us, for us." turtlezhu 发表于 3/10/2016 12:02:13 AM
这个twitter link显示不是这个啊。确实好感人啊，比当时在缅因说的I don't want your money 那个神态和语气还感人。trump是保护大家的大哥！
展望未来，周六的华盛顿特区选举（19个代表）都无关紧要。
下周二的俄亥俄和佛罗里达是重点，此时有四种情况，我们来推演一下：
（1)Trump两州都拿下（目前看来是这是最有可能的情况）。那就基本锁定胜局。
因为这种情况下他的代表数应该在700个左右，领先第二名Cruz 300个以上，再考虑到Kasich此时会退选，他的支持者分流给Trump。最终Trump应该能拿到大于1237个代表。
（2) 只拿下佛罗里达。这种情况下他的代表数大概在650个左右，领先第二名Cruz 200个代表。这种情况下Trump有可能最终只能拿到1100到1200个代表，不过半数，但是因为比第二名Cruz领先很多>300个，想必共和党高层也不敢冒天下之大不韪，强行换马。
（3)只拿下俄亥俄。这种情况可能性不大，即使发生和（2)的分析差不多，从略。
（4)佛罗里达和俄亥俄两者皆失。这是最糟糕的情况。首先是Contested Convention几乎不可避免，而且选出来的代表无论是谁都无法服众。此时不管Trump是否独立参选，共和党都会因为内部分裂输掉大选。当然建制派还有一根救命稻草就是Hillary因为邮件门一案被起诉，其实这种情况下Bernie Sanders以哀兵姿态上阵，民主党同仇敌忾，共和党只会输的更惨。不但输掉大选，而且很有可能输掉参议院多数。最高法院自由派的金斯堡大法官乘机宣布退休，新任民主党总统一举任命两个年富力强的自由派大法官（其中包括刚卸任的Obama），一举奠定未来三十年美国的政治格局。
从这个角度看，下周二佛罗里达的初选是一场决定美国未来命运的选举。因此对几则新闻加以分析：这两天就有传闻说Rubio的幕僚建议他在佛罗里达初选前退出，以免初选时惨败伤害他未来参选州长的机会，今天的两场惨败以后，恐怕Rubio需要慎重考虑这个选项了。目前他在佛罗里达排名第二，如果他退出的话，Trump的赢面应该是更大。
另一个因素是Bush家族的表态，Bush家族两代总统，共和党内第一豪门的位置恐怕没有人会质疑。而Jeb作为前佛州州长，虽然曾经被Trump百般羞辱，但是至今没有出来为Rubio背书，而是强调他会支持最终的共和党候选人即使他是Trump，这其中恐怕不是因为昔日小弟Rubio的冒犯伤害了他的感情，而是“相忍为党”的情怀起了作用。类似情况的还有前总统George W Bush，虽然Trump在辩论中批评了他的伊战决定和9/11恐怖袭击前后的表现，但是他没有公开反驳，或者为其他候选人背书，甚至在私人场合表达了对Cruz的不喜欢，这几乎可以说是对Trump的支持了。而最近Bush家老四Neil Bush对Cruz的支持，以及老夫人Barbara对Trump的批评，更像是他们不忿于亲人被羞辱而采取的私人行为，而非家族的正式表态。
作者：章威
链接：https://www.zhihu.com/question/41129580/answer/89896373
来源：知乎
著作权归作者所有。商业转载请联系作者获得授权，非商业转载请注明出处。
“To put it simply, bound delegates are "bound" by their state's choice in the primary or caucus process when the nominating convention rolls around. In other words, if a bound delegate is assigned to Donald Trump in one of the upcoming Super Tuesday primaries, that delegate will have to support Trump at the Republican National Convention in Cleveland, Ohio, this July. Pledged or unbound delegates, on the other hand, are only loosely committed to their state's preferences, though they often do tend to stick with those preferences. ”
http://www.bustle.com/articles/144624-what-is-a-bound-delegate-gop-rules-mean-their-votes-could-be-a-total-waste
他肯定没投票权，因为上周Trump发表关于终结cheap H1B的观点，你看把他急的~
如果是公民，根本不受影响。早就投票去了……
我发现支持民主党的，好几个都很反对Trump对H1B的态度。
因为他要brightest brain啊，工作机会native优先啊，不够优秀就留不下来。
Trump会赢的
http://www.ethyper.com/ben-carson-on-hannity-i-support-donald-trump-over-gop-establishment.html
Three Clear Messages From Tuesday's Primaries
1) Donald Trump is very, very close to clinching the nomination.
--Marco Rubio is toast. That’s true even if he wins Florida. He hasn’t racked up victories in big states, and he’s fading, not rising. Ask not for whom the bell tolls. It tolls for Marco.
--John Kasich has no path to the nomination, even if he wins Ohio. His only path was a deadlocked convention, and that won’t happen unless Trump falls down a manhole. Kasich has waged a decent, honorable campaign, has extensive experience governing, and knows how to work with Congress. Trumps appreciates those assets, knows they complement his own, and must be thinking of Kasich for VP. The Ohio governor won’t blow that by turning negative.
--Ted Cruz is still standing but he has a hidden weakness. And it’s devastating. He has not been able to expand beyond his solid base of evangelicals and ideological conservatives (whether they are economic conservatives or values conservatives). In a normal year, that might be enough for Cruz to win the primaries. Not this year. Cruz has won a lot of delegates, but if you can't win the Mississippi Republican primary, you aren't going to win in the Northeast.
--That leaves Trump. He faces grave difficulties in the general election, beginning with women and Hispanics, but he is on the glide path to win his party’s nomination.
2) Hillary Clinton’s loss in Michigan won’t stop her steady march to the nomination.
--Bernie Sanders, like The Donald, is selling the stuff that dreams are made of. Barack Obama did it in 2008, and it worked. This year, the message is angrier. It’s “shut up and listen to us, dammit.” Sanders voices that message, which is why lots of primary voters are feeling the Bern. (The exception is African-Americans, who remember Bill Clinton fondly and appreciate Hillary’s promise to continue the Obama presidency.) Since Bernie is waging an ideological battle and can fund his campaign with online donations, he has no incentive to exit the race. He’ll keep pushing Hillary to the left. In the fall, his voters will cast their lot with Hillary, but they won't be enthusiastic. They will be voting against the Republicans.
--As Hillary trudges forward, her party ought to worry about two things. First, she has been unable to put away a 74-year-old socialist from a small state with zero legislative accomplishments. That’s not exactly a sizzling campaign record. Second, she has more legal troubles than Perry Mason could handle. In public, she waves them off. In private, she must be worried. When your IT guy has immunity, the FBI has hacked your home-brew server, and the Bureau has 150 agents on the case, you better hope you have a loyal friend in the White House. The only thing standing between Hillary and the nomination is an indictment or refusal to answer FBI questions when they interview her later this spring.
3) The electorate is furious.
--It’s furious with Washington, Wall Street, hedge funds, big banks, lobbyists, fat cats in corner offices—all of them cutting special deals for themselves while average folks are left out. Voters know their real incomes are down. They know their retirements are in jeopardy, their kids are loaded with college debt, and everybody is looking at a tough job market. We are not in a recession, mind you, and employment is actually growing. No matter. All across the country, voters are saying, “We’re mad as hell and we aren’t gonna take it anymore.” That’s why the most damning indictment this year is to be called an “establishment candidate.” The second most damning is to receive Mitt Romney’s endorsement. If there was a ballot option for “tar-and-feather the lousy SOBs,” it would win in a landslide. Tuesday night proved it again.
In a typical tar-and-feathers attack, the mob's victim was stripped to their waist. Liquid tar was either poured or painted onto the person while they were immobilized. Then the victim either had feathers thrown on them or was rolled around on a pile of feathers so they stuck to the tar. Often the victim was then paraded around town on a cart or wooden rail. The aim was to inflict enough miserable pain and humiliation on a person to make them either conform their behavior to the mob's demands or be driven from town.
The image of the tarred-and-feathered outlaw remains a metaphor for public humiliation. "To tar and feather someone" can mean "to punish or severely criticize that person"
后面有人退出的，所以我还是比较乐观。
本来就瞧不上他。
oh no, 真心讨厌cruz,而且他在体制内也没啥影响力
宁愿相信是paul ryan这个小白脸
这个有新闻链接吗是坐实的吗
mm点开更多问题和更多立场了吗？
我真觉得他那个雷曼兄弟董事会的经历是个很大的liability
又把TRUMP黑了一遍、、、这、、、
他的反射弧好长，智商堪忧，很多人一上来就说会backfire的
没仔细看。不过明天的debate也很关键，如果Trump表现好，州长被揭露，很可能就能赢。否则悬。
现在POLL上面落后这样也好，希望老头和团队明天debate能更用心准备，地面部队能更努力争取一下last minute votes
真好啊。。。
First Lady =/= President's Wife 前面都说过一次了。。。
发帖前先看下id
不知道他是不是也有病，刚知道坑王是真有抑郁症，我以后都不忍心埋汰他了，挖坑是他觉得抗抑郁的方式吧，也可能别人越骂他他越不抑郁。
别理他，见首页。理他太上火，他是专门找茬的
他不过分解读就怪了，钻牛角尖是他的强项。不要回他
喜欢她可以啊，但是说想让她当First Lady不就是瞎扯么？
辩论问问题居然要西班牙语，然后翻译才能回答。。。我觉得这辩论实在是舔过头了。。。美国还没成墨西哥呢
有人钻牛角上瘾,千万别理他,直接踩,越回他他越high.巴不得有人跟他交流
看了几分钟,晕倒
真的是用西班牙语啊,然后翻译成英文
那女主持明明说很好的英文偏偏用西班牙语
这太过了
因为有些人的发言好笑。所以我帮忙让他们意识到他们给别人带来的乐趣。
我不在乎他们回不回帖。如果他们回，那就即兴讨论。如果不回，那么完全可以转话题讨论其他话题。你认为我执着钻牛角尖，实际上我只是陪他们讨论。
他的特点就是钻牛角尖，直接忽略是最好的回复。参见首页。
https://twitter.com/FoxNews/status/707779410137452545
☆ 发自 iPhone 华人一网 1.11.06
☆ 发自 iPhone 华人一网 1.11.06
3月5号情势不乐观，Ohio 州长赢，Florida bush家只怕全力上阵，trump 能不能赢难讲。
比如candidates去chinatown 拉选票，town hall, 提问人用中文，然后让会议组织者翻译肯定也是可以的。
Univision就相当于办了一个巨大的town hall一样。
☆ 发自 iPhone 华人一网 1.11.06
老百姓要反了
你说的对，but英语是主要语言啊，所有官方文件，法律条文不都是英语吗
至于么？有多少华人每天工作，生活中都用英语。难道用英语的华人就都是为了生存而跪舔人，不认自己祖宗的人了？什么逻辑啊？