Well according to 538 (http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/), Donald Trump's path to the majority of delegates relies on him winning Florida, Ohio and Arizona. However, he is currently overperforming by about 41 delegates (possibly more by the time they vote in Florida/Ohio/Arizona) so I would imagine he could still get to the nomination while losing one of these 3 states. If he loses more than 1, I think it is likely heading to a brokered convention with Donald as the plurality leader in delegates. It is worth noting that he is currently on track to win all 3, according to the polls.
Election day is March 15. And Floridians are already voting: 433,000 Republicans have cast early ballots—at least a fifth of the expected electorate. By applying the three most recent Florida surveys’ polling averages to the early ballots cast, Rubio could be trailing Trump by as much as 62,000 votes or as few as 30,000. That’s not an insurmountable lead and, if Rubio were to suddenly start winning about 35 percent of all the GOP votes today to Trump’s 31 percent, the Florida senator would win the state.
Well according to 538 (http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/), Donald Trump's path to the majority of delegates relies on him winning Florida, Ohio and Arizona. However, he is currently overperforming by about 41 delegates (possibly more by the time they vote in Florida/Ohio/Arizona) so I would imagine he could still get to the nomination while losing one of these 3 states. If he loses more than 1, I think it is likely heading to a brokered convention with Donald as the plurality leader in delegates. It is worth noting that he is currently on track to win all 3, according to the polls.
觉得竞选美国总统真是太复杂了，竞选时间那个长，n多场的辩论就算了，选举还有caucus，还有primary，还有winner take all 还有hybird,还要有过半数，不过1237 delegates还要brokered convention，投票时间还有早有晚，真是不折腾死人不算完，你妈这谁发明的竞选方式？
觉得竞选美国总统真是太复杂了，竞选时间那个长，n多场的辩论就算了，选举还有caucus，还有primary，还有winner take all 还有hybird,还要有过半数，不过1237 delegates还要brokered convention，投票时间还有早有晚，真是不折腾死人不算完，你妈这谁发明的竞选方式？
觉得竞选美国总统真是太复杂了，竞选时间那个长，n多场的辩论就算了，选举还有caucus，还有primary，还有winner take all 还有hybird,还要有过半数，不过1237 delegates还要brokered convention，投票时间还有早有晚，真是不折腾死人不算完，你妈这谁发明的竞选方式？
WASHINGTON – U.S. Senator Bob Corker (R-Tenn.) issued the following statement today regarding the 2016 presidential election: “Here’s my message to the Republican Party leaders: Focus more on listening to the American people and less on trying to stifle their voice." “What’s happening in the Republican primary is the result of two things: the fecklessness and ineptness of the Washington establishment in failing to address the big issues facing our country and years of anger with the overreach of the Obama administration. And to be candid, I think the American people should be angrier than they are.” Senator Corker has not endorsed a candidate in this election.
March 5 Kansas Republican caucus (40 delegates): Trump is up 12 points Kentucky Republican primary (45 delegates): Trump is up 13 points Louisiana Republican primary (47 delegates): Trump is up 19 points March 8 Michigan Republican primary (59 delegates): Trump is up 15.4 points Mississippi Republican primary (40 delegates): Trump is up 24 points March 15 Florida Republican primary (99 delegates — winner take all): Trump is up 18 .7 points and ahead of Florida Sen. Marco Rubio Illinois Republican primary (69 delegates): Trump is up 15.5 points North Carolina Republican primary (72 delegates): Trump is up 10.3 points Ohio Republican primary (66 delegates — winner take all): Trump is up five points ahead of Ohio Gov. John Kasich
Mitt Romney has shut the door on a presidential run.
Speculation ran high that the former Republican nominee would consider a third run for the White House after he took to the stage on Thursday to speak out against current frontrunner Donald Trump. He followed up his speech with an appearance on the Today show Friday morning, at which point he shut down the rumors.
“I am not running for president, and I won’t run for president,” Romney told host Matt Lauer, who pressed him on the question three times.
Though Romney won’t be running, he has vowed to do “everything within the normal political bounds to make sure we don’t nominate Donald Trump.”
昨天看缅因演讲老川说 I don't want your money, go out and vote差点泪崩。我还没有选举权，只有捐钱表示支持，这么节约花自己辛苦挣来的钱广告也不投，还说I don't want your money。 rose2mary 发表于 3/4/2016 12:48:55 PM
WASHINGTON – U.S. Senator Bob Corker (R-Tenn.) issued the following statement today regarding the 2016 presidential election: “Here’s my message to the Republican Party leaders: Focus more on listening to the American people and less on trying to stifle their voice." “What’s happening in the Republican primary is the result of two things: the fecklessness and ineptness of the Washington establishment in failing to address the big issues facing our country and years of anger with the overreach of the Obama administration. And to be candid, I think the American people should be angrier than they are.” Senator Corker has not endorsed a candidate in this election. goldengate 发表于 3/4/2016 12:50:49 PM
Mitt Romney has shut the door on a presidential run.
Speculation ran high that the former Republican nominee would consider a third run for the White House after he took to the stage on Thursday to speak out against current frontrunner Donald Trump. He followed up his speech with an appearance on the Today show Friday morning, at which point he shut down the rumors.
“I am not running for president, and I won’t run for president,” Romney told host Matt Lauer, who pressed him on the question three times.
Though Romney won’t be running, he has vowed to do “everything within the normal political bounds to make sure we don’t nominate Donald Trump.” goldengate 发表于 3/4/2016 12:57:13 PM
Trump was set up.
你看机器人那么年轻就吼几天就嗓子坏了，憔悴的不行，快70的老头天天飞去赶2~3个场子，昨晚终于出现疲态了，不过也挺厉害的了。
Mitt Romney did Donald Trump a BIG favor by attacking him
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/03/03/mitt-romney-is-attacking-donald-trump-as-a-phony-and-a-fraud-thats-great-news-for-trump/
昨晚trump回应没有core那一段回答的太精彩了，反应太机智太快了
However, he is currently overperforming by about 41 delegates (possibly more by the time they vote in Florida/Ohio/Arizona) so I would imagine he could still get to the nomination while losing one of these 3 states.
If he loses more than 1, I think it is likely heading to a brokered convention with Donald as the plurality leader in delegates.
It is worth noting that he is currently on track to win all 3, according to the polls.
Florida真挺重要的，Florida&Ohio两个必需赢一个才好。
Trump辩论还是改变下策略，这么吵没好处。
Republicans have cast early ballots—at least a fifth of the expected
electorate.
By applying the three most recent Florida surveys’ polling averages to the
early ballots cast, Rubio could be trailing Trump by as much as 62,000
votes or as few as 30,000. That’s not an insurmountable lead and, if Rubio
were to suddenly start winning about 35 percent of all the GOP votes today
to Trump’s 31 percent, the Florida senator would win the state.
为啥florida这么重要？纽约州啥时候投票？rubio 是florida的，他不会赢了佛州吧？
rubio会做手脚不？现在实在是太讨厌rubio, cruz这两只了，没有trump, 宁可选kaisch
哪个州？纽约州几号？
转帖网上一个人的分析，挺有道理，但是却为川普担心啊！
昨天辩论床铺基本上是在审判台接受审判和裁决。只有他被问到细节数字问题和经济问题，那些问题台上换其他3个人都是要出丑的。减免财赤哪里能靠这几位1，2，3，4，5加减出来。
州长这人就是一个小布什，他看起来行政经验丰富，但美国债台高筑的今天是不是有他这号经验丰富政客的功劳？而且这类neocon实在倒胃口，这小布什才下台几天。
很明显床铺昨天不是很在状态，感觉他现在竞选活动也没有开始几周那种气势如虹，基本上一天只在一个州有竞选活动，完全靠天吃饭。超级周2后他可能没有得到预期的双方妥协，反而是这些所谓的老友跑到前台痛斥。
前议长金瑞齐昨天说了，为啥床铺现在被GOP追着骂，就是他是一个泥腿子想上地主的闺女，人看不上。他有点钱但压根不是人秘密俱乐部的。现在表面上是开骂，而且肉逼儿说的那些估计都是罗娘娘教的。私底下的威胁到什么程度，谁都不知道。连医生那点支持率都能被威胁退出，何况到这种砸人饭碗的程度，床铺家大业大，受啥威胁都不用说了，当年佩罗是女儿收到死亡威胁。现实中，上次那个华盛顿国会议员招妓案子那个妓院老板娘不明不白死了，给奥巴马开出生证的夏威夷卫生署署长飞机失事死的，还全飞机就死她一个。就连老王劝甜妈免费龙虾吃多伤身不也是被甜大妈追着骂。
克鲁兹还是有一帮子政治小团伙的，德州几个州长都出来挺他。反正我感觉床铺可能是想简单了点，以为拿到多数票，人就会妥协。他这种外来户四面受敌无政治根基，风头太旺反而招恨反制的手段都不一定有，这些政客党政军关系盘根错节，他搞房地产的靠人脉和政策吃饭，谁搞他一下都受不了。
是的，我一个同事也是这么说的，说他们敢piss ppl off，我们就去闹。
越发激起人们恶感
你们想凌驾人民之上?来告诉我们我们很stupid?
昨晚辩论的poll。所有poll都是Trump 平均70%赢。
所有的poll都是trump遥遥领先
但是共和党和那些大佬不管美国的未来呀，他们只管自己的既得利益。真是太坏了这帮人，和土工黑社会没啥区别。真担心trump只是简单地以为靠赢选票就能当上总统
Link,link
也许不是不够，是不想把自己所有的钱砸进去，万一选不上的话这个赌注太大了
他不会那么简单
不过现阶段确实支持率最重要,这是能放到桌面上说话的
据说在debate中,他有一次也是怒不可遏,冲着那个"打手"大吼"shut up"
Trump绝对不傻, 他知道在所有方向的围攻下是赢不了的，所以他现在力求establishment讲和。换句话说，如果不讲和硬上，也许勉强够票，但unfavorable rating太高，赢GE困难。比如KKK这个事件，如果狐狸台当时配合，共和党都为他辩解，就不是个事，现在本来没事的被两边硬炒出来这么大动静。
他的bottom line是赢大选，否则他根本不在乎初选能不能赢，能不能被提名。现在即使Trump过不了门槛到了大会也铁定是plurality leader，党内大佬犯这个众怒就是放弃了GE。商人算的很精，不做无谓的努力。
好恶心,看video好像真的啊
看来都累得不轻
现在摆在Trump和GOP当权派面前的只有两条路：win -partial lose或者lose-lose
觉得竞选美国总统真是太复杂了，竞选时间那个长，n多场的辩论就算了，选举还有caucus，还有primary，还有winner take all 还有hybird,还要有过半数，不过1237 delegates还要brokered convention，投票时间还有早有晚，真是不折腾死人不算完，你妈这谁发明的竞选方式？
选举年是各大媒体最开心的
statement today regarding the 2016 presidential election:
“Here’s my message to the Republican Party leaders: Focus more on
listening to the American people and less on trying to stifle their voice."
“What’s happening in the Republican primary is the result of two things:
the fecklessness and ineptness of the Washington establishment in failing to
address the big issues facing our country and years of anger with the
overreach of the Obama administration. And to be candid, I think the
American people should be angrier than they are.”
Senator Corker has not endorsed a candidate in this election.
Kansas Republican caucus (40 delegates): Trump is up 12 points
Kentucky Republican primary (45 delegates): Trump is up 13 points
Louisiana Republican primary (47 delegates): Trump is up 19 points
March 8
Michigan Republican primary (59 delegates): Trump is up 15.4 points
Mississippi Republican primary (40 delegates): Trump is up 24 points
March 15
Florida Republican primary (99 delegates — winner take all): Trump is up 18
.7 points and ahead of Florida Sen. Marco Rubio
Illinois Republican primary (69 delegates): Trump is up 15.5 points
North Carolina Republican primary (72 delegates): Trump is up 10.3 points
Ohio Republican primary (66 delegates — winner take all): Trump is up five
points ahead of Ohio Gov. John Kasich
Speculation ran high that the former Republican nominee would consider a third run for the White House after he took to the stage on Thursday to speak out against current frontrunner Donald Trump. He followed up his speech with an appearance on the Today show Friday morning, at which point he shut down the rumors.
“I am not running for president, and I won’t run for president,” Romney told host Matt Lauer, who pressed him on the question three times.
Though Romney won’t be running, he has vowed to do “everything within the normal political bounds to make sure we don’t nominate Donald Trump.”
Trump取消了CPAC演讲，去Louisiana搞搞活动了。觉得是good move, 和他的ground game本来就欠缺。小道消息是当权者准备了walk out on Trump speech以羞辱他。。。
缺票： 270-206=64
Florida 29
Ohio 18
New Hampshire 4
Nevada 6
Michigan 16
= 73
还有哪些州有希望吗？