rumble*com/v5edesp-live-with-julie.html?e9s=src_v1_ucp
JGM – YOUR ENEMIES NOW KNOW THEY ARE IN TROUBLE - [10 September 2024]
[Word heard – September 7, 2024]
My children, chaos and confusion is growing in your enemies’ camp, not knowing what is the best option: to end this country or to end Pres Trump with the least backlash or resistance. Their desperation just hit another level because their indictments did nothing to stop My David and this election. Every lie and all the propaganda of the news outlets and all their scripts that they were given to change the narrative of the truth of who their puppets truly are and what they stand for and all their deceptive tactics, every set up to tear down Pres Trump did nothing but boost his popularity. Your enemies know they are in trouble. Their votes are not enough to stop his victory. They will know this even more after Kamala bombs this debate. Her tongue will be her worst enemy and she will slip up on live TV where she cannot be controlled. No matter what they’ve done to prepare her or what they’ve given her, it’s not enough to get her over the top and to come out a clear winner. No matter how they try to spin the truth she will have the same fate as the Biden as weak, a failure and someone who is not going to stand against Trump and win. This will be yet another disaster for the Left as they watch their puppet humiliate herself and their party.
Some of the news outlets will say this was horrible performance and watch how this will crash and crumble any advancement this Establishment thought they had against My David. The giants I will say again are coming down and as they are rocked politically by this, that is when events will take place to rock and shock this nation.
Pray now and resist any fear this will try to bring your way. They control you by fear so stop the fear and break their hold over you. My children, their illusion, their fear, their movie, their machine is crumbling. Their walls are falling.
...
Part 2
Foreign nations involved will all be exposed. One thing that will be exposed is the horrific truth of the Afghanistan withdrawal and the massive payoff and why the multi-billions of equipment and cash was left there, why the Establishment was paying off Ukraine, why the billions were given to Iran, and what they were doing with the money that would be used against your nation and why all the contracts and the contacts with China and how many that have been working for them in your govt, spies and infiltrators. But some in your govt are paid and employed by China in high level positions. This goes far beyond just China Joe. Most of the govt is paid to leak information to China.
China is about to turn on Washington because they’re not holding up their bargain by keeping Trump out of the seat of the president. It wouldn’t be just bad for China, it’d be catastrophic.
A war between the Establishment and China is about to hit another level. I told you My children the battle is the Lord’s and your enemies are turning on each other and will destroy themselves without you having to lift a finger you would say, because it’s My hand that is moving. It’s My hand that is defending and protecting you.
A war is about to begin out in the open, between your enemies, and proof will pour out from all directions. This will be a dark time across this nation and around the world BUT MY LIGHT WILL DESTROY YOUR ENEMIES AND ALL THEIR PLANS THEY HAD WORLDWIDE. SO STAND AND BE PREPARED TO RECEIVE YOUR NATION BACK saith the Lord of Hosts.
(Sorry this is between part 1 and part 2)
They’re in great fear knowing they will lose their grip and their way to hide secrets from this nation which help them gain more control over the people and the financial system. These next decisions they will make will be paralyzing to some with the fear it brings. The Establishment is not willing to hand Trump the win or to give him back the seat that is rightfully his. They will fight tooth and nail you would say. They will appear more unhinged and more desperate as the days pass by knowing their chances of keeping the things the way they have been are looking more and more impossible. They will pull out the big guns you would say and bring an attack that would literally and physically bring a death to this nation as you know it by using other foreign nations in their desperate attempt to keep their Establishment. The foreign nations they are partnering up with will turn on the Establishment and will help to bring them down because they don’t want to share and they control over this nation. This foreign enemy wants full control themselves.
My children you’re about to watch Washington tear itself apart trying to save themselves from exposure and the proof of the dark secrets of this Establishment being released. I told you to watch and follow the money. Money is the key to their fall. Money is about to be the Establishment’s worst nightmare and worst enemy because it will bring them down with exposure and proof on how and who and what this machine was funding. Treason at a high level no one knew could exist, a govt that was taking out its own nation on purpose with outside help.
文／游士仪／国家政策研究基金会／趋势暨数据中心召集人
前言
本次美国总统大选可谓是高潮迭起，继川普遇刺，以及拜登退选后，总统大选日仅剩不到60天。川普在“让美国再次伟大”的框架下，提出很明确的减税、引导利率、对中国商品课高额关税以及打击移民等政策；而贺锦丽在接棒拜登参选总统后，虽然有一波庆祝行情让民主党士气大增，然而因贺锦丽政策目前仍较为模糊，是要承接拜登的政策？还是要提出一套新的论述？目前大部分民众仍不清楚，庆祝行情较难以维温，也因此，大家正引颈期盼在美国时间9月11日即将登场的美国总统辩论，届时贺锦丽的政策倾向会较为清晰。总结而言，辩论前系的美国总统大选结果仍胜负难料。
▼川普、贺锦丽的电视辩论会有何表现，受到民众期待。（图／路透）
美国总统选举制度：“赢者全拿”与“比例投票”
美国总统选举不同于台湾的公民直接选举制度，而是采取间接选举的“选举人团(Electoral College)”制度，而选举人团是由各州的“选举人(Elector) ”组成。各州的选举人数目，是由该州参、众两院的席次决定，人口普查数字越多的州，有越多的参、众两院席次，也因此有越多的选举人票；由于美国宪法规定，不管该州人数多少，都保证有三席参、众两院席次，因此各州都至少有三张选举人票以上。若总统候选人在一州获得最高票数，就拿到该州全部的选举人票数，正是俗称的“赢者全拿”规则，目前美国共有48州＋1特区（DC特区）采取此制度。
而另外两州“内布拉斯加州( State of Nebraska)”和“缅因州( State of Maine)”则是采取“比例投票”，内布拉斯加州有5张选举人票，2张给全州得票胜出者，三票按照选区中的票数分配；缅因州有4张选举人票，2张给全州得票胜出者，2张由缅因州两区决定。
2024年美国总统大选，各州的选举人票加总共有538张票，哪一个候选人率先拿到270张票即当选美国总统。
全国民调分析：贺锦丽支持度仅以微小差距略胜川普
全国民调是指根据美国人口结构进行的全国抽样民调，可作为两位总统候选人支持度参考，不能直接作为预测当选的分析。因美国总统并非直接制度，过去也发生多次“赢得人民普选票数，输掉选举人票数”的情形，20世纪以来就有两次，如2000年民主党高尔比共和党小布希多54万普选票，但却比小布希少拿5张选举人票败选；2016年民主党希拉里比共和党川普多拿287万普选票，但却比川普少拿27张选举人票败选。
从近期的主流媒体民调可观察到，贺锦丽仅在部分全民调调中，仅以微小的差距领先川普，另一部分民调则显示两者的全国支持度在误差范围内。
众所周知，共和党候选人川普与主流媒体存在不睦现象，经济学人调查结果亦显示主流媒体民主党倾向有增强趋势，加上部分美国评论员认为川普部分支持者有隐性支持的倾向(shy Trump vote)，也因此在2016以及2020年的美国大选中，都曾出现民调机构低估川普支持度的倾向。过去八年来，民调机构应该有在逐年修正其民调模型，预测结果如何我们也将拭目以待。
▲资料来源：Real Clear
选举人票民调分析：
美国共50州加1个特区，根据过去选举结果，蓝州(民主党获胜州)有17个，共计207张选举人票；红州(共和党获胜州)有22个，共计184张选举人票。若加上比例投票州，蓝州估计可获得211张以上选举人票，红州估计可获得189张以上选举人票，因此关键还是在10个摇摆州138张选举人票会流向何处。
▲资料来源：摇摆州的选取来自R&W，其余资料来自作者推估。
R&W 摇摆州民调
在R&W 民调中，10个摇摆州有5个州川普和贺锦丽在误差范围内平手，贺锦丽获胜率较高的有4个州，川普获胜率较高的仅有佛罗里达1州，根据此民调结果，贺锦丽推测可得251张以上选举人票，川普推测可获得219张选举人票以上，有68张选举人票仍未能明确预测流向蓝或红。
▲资料来源：R&W
270 to win 摇摆州民调
在270 to win 民调中，10个摇摆州有6个州川普和贺锦丽在误差范围内平手，贺锦丽获胜率较高的有3个州，川普获胜率较高的仅有佛罗里达1州，根据此民调结果，贺锦丽推测可得236张以上选举人票，川普推测可获得219张选举人票以上，有83张选举人票仍未能明确预测流向蓝或红。
Emerson 摇摆州民调
在Emerson的民调中，公布的摇摆州民调有7个，也就是先前的10个摇摆中去除掉佛罗里达州、 明尼苏达州以及新墨西哥州，若我们根据前两份民调的结果，将佛罗里达州归类为红州，明尼苏达州以及新墨西哥州归类为蓝州，那么在Emerson公布的民调中，推测贺锦丽可得241张以上选举人票，川普推测可获得230张选举人票以上，有67张选举人票仍未能明确预测流向蓝或红。
从各州的民调分析中可知，摇摆州有近68-82张仍未知流向何处，川普与贺锦丽的选情仍难以判定输赢，需要特别关注的摇摆州包含宾州(19张选举人票)、乔治亚州(16张选举人票)、北卡莱纳州(16张选举人票)以及威斯康辛州(10张选举人票)等。