Chairman McHenry, Ranking Member Waters, and other members of the Committee, I appreciate the opportunity to present the Federal Reserve's semiannualMonetary Policy Report.
We at the Fed remain squarely focused on our dual mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices for the American people. My colleagues and I understand the hardship that high inflation is causing, and we remain strongly committed to bringing inflation back down to our 2 percent goal. Price stability is the responsibility of the Federal Reserve, and without it, the economy does not work for anyone. In particular, without price stability, we will not achieve a sustained period of strong labor market conditions that benefit all.
I will review the current economic situation before turning to monetary policy.
Current Economic Situation and Outlook
The U.S. economy slowed significantly last year, and recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a modest pace. Although growth in consumer spending has picked up this year, activity in the housing sector remains weak, largely reflecting higher mortgage rates. Higher interest rates and slower output growth also appear to be weighing on business fixed investment.
The labor market remains very tight. Over the first five months of the year, job gains averaged a robust 314,000 jobs per month. The unemployment rate moved up but remained low in May, at 3.7 percent. There are some signs that supply and demand in the labor market are coming into better balance. The labor force participation rate has moved up in recent months, particularly for individuals aged 25 to 54. Nominal wage growth has shown some signs of easing, and job vacancies have declined so far this year. While the jobs-to-workers gap has narrowed, labor demand still substantially exceeds the supply of available workers.1
Inflation remains well above our longer-run goal of 2 percent. Over the 12 months ending in April, total personal consumption expenditures (PCE) prices rose 4.4 percent; excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core PCE prices rose 4.7 percent. In May, the 12-month change in the consumer price index (CPI) came in at 4.0 percent, and the change in the core CPI was 5.3 percent. Inflation has moderated somewhat since the middle of last year. Nonetheless, inflation pressures continue to run high, and the process of getting inflation back down to 2 percent has a long way to go. Despite elevated inflation, longer-term inflation expectations appear to remain well anchored, as reflected in a broad range of surveys of households, businesses, and forecasters, as well as measures from financial markets.
Monetary Policy
With inflation remaining well above our longer-run goal of 2 percent and with labor market conditions remaining tight, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has significantly tightened the stance of monetary policy. We have raised our policy interest rate by 5 percentage points since early last year and have continued to reduce our securities holdings at a brisk pace.2We have been seeing the effects of our policy tightening on demand in the most interest rate–sensitive sectors of the economy. It will take time, however, for the full effects of monetary restraint to be realized, especially on inflation.
The economy is facing headwinds from tighter credit conditions for households and businesses, which are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation.3The extent of these effects remains uncertain.
In light of how far we have come in tightening policy, the uncertain lags with which monetary policy affects the economy, and potential headwinds from credit tightening, the FOMC decided last week to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5 to 5-1/4 percent and to continue the process of significantly reducing our securities holdings. Nearly all FOMC participants expect that it will be appropriate to raise interest rates somewhat further by the end of the year. But at last week's meeting, considering how far and how fast we have moved, we judged it prudent to hold the target range steady to allow the Committee to assess additional information and its implications for monetary policy. In determining the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate to return inflation to 2 percent over time, we will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments. We will continue to make our decisions meeting by meeting, based on the totality of incoming data and their implications for the outlook for economic activity and inflation, as well as the balance of risks.
We remain committed to bringing inflation back down to our 2 percent goal and to keeping longer-term inflation expectations well anchored. Reducing inflation is likely to require a period of below-trend growth and some softening of labor market conditions. Restoring price stability is essential to set the stage for achieving maximum employment and stable prices over the longer run.
Before concluding, let me briefly address the condition of the banking sector. The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient. As detailed in the box on financial stability in the June Monetary Policy Report, the Federal Reserve, together with the Treasury Department and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, took decisive action in March to protect the U.S. economy and to strengthen public confidence in our banking system. The recent bank failures, including the failure of Silicon Valley Bank, and the resulting banking stress have highlighted the importance of ensuring we have the appropriate rules and supervisory practices for banks of this size. We are committed to addressing these vulnerabilities to make for a stronger and more resilient banking system.
We understand that our actions affect communities, families, and businesses across the country. Everything we do is in service to our public mission. We at the Fed will do everything we can to achieve our maximum-employment and price-stability goals.
美联储主席鲍威尔周三重申，未来可能会有更多的加息，直到在降低通胀方面取得更多进展。
当地时间周三，他在向众议院金融服务委员会提交的证词中，再次强调6月暂缓加息只是临时的举措，并不代表美联储已经完成加息。
他表示：
"几乎所有FOMC参与者都预计，应该在年底前进一步提高利率。"
鲍威尔认为，通货膨胀虽然已经降温，但"仍然远远高于"美联储2%的目标，说明美联储仍有许多工作要做。
他表示：
"自去年年中以来，通货膨胀已经有所缓和，尽管如此，通胀压力仍然很高，让通胀率回落到2%的过程还有很长的路要走。"
美联储官员通常更关注不包含视频和能源价格的核心通胀指标。4月份，美国核心CPI小幅下降0.1%至4.7%，但5月数据又回升至5.3%，表明通胀粘性较高。
鲍威尔还表示，美国劳动力市场依然火热，开放的工作岗位数量仍然远远超过了可用的劳动力储备。
此外，鲍威尔强调称，利率决议将根据经济数据逐次做出，并不存在预设的路线。
“新美联储通讯社”Nick Timiraos表示，美联储主席鲍威尔向国会准备的证词与上周新闻发布会上的开场白相比，几乎没有新的措辞。
以下为鲍威尔向美国众议院提交的证词全文：
【中文版】
美联储主席鲍威尔向美国众议院金融服务委员会提交的半年度货币政策报告
主席麦克亨利、议员沃特斯女士以及委员会其他成员，感谢您们给予我机会介绍美联储的半年度货币政策报告。
我们美联储始终专注于实现我们的双重使命，即促进美国民众的最大就业和稳定物价。我和我的同事们理解高通胀所带来的困难，并坚决致力于将通胀率降至2%的目标水平。物价稳定是美联储的责任，没有物价稳定，经济就无法为任何人提供帮助。特别是在没有物价稳定的情况下，我们无法实现持久的有利于所有人的强劲劳动力市场状况。
在讨论货币政策之前，我将回顾当前的经济形势。
当前的经济形势和展望
去年美国经济增长显著放缓，最近的指标表明经济活动仍在以温和的速度扩张。尽管今年消费支出增长有所加快，但住房市场活动仍疲软，主要原因是抵押利率上升。较高的利率和较慢的产出增长似乎也对企业固定投资产生了压力。
劳动力市场仍然非常紧张。今年前五个月，每月的就业增加平均达到了强劲的31.4万个就业岗位。失业率在5月上升，但仍然保持在3.7%的低水平。劳动力市场的供需有一些迹象表明正在趋于更好的平衡。劳动参与率近几个月有所上升，尤其是25至54岁的人群。名义工资增长有些放缓，今年迄今为止职位空缺也有所下降。虽然就业-工人之间的缺口已经缩小，但劳动需求仍然大大超过了可用工人的供应。
通胀率仍远高于我们2%的长期目标。截至4月份的12个月内，个人消费支出价格总指数（PCE）上涨了4.4%；在排除食品和能源等波动较大的类别后，核心PCE价格上涨了4.7%。5月份，消费者价格指数（CPI）的12个月变化率为4.0%，核心CPI变化率为5.3%。通胀压力从去年年中以来有所缓解。尽管如此，通胀压力仍然很高，将通胀率降至2%的过程还有很长的路要走。尽管通胀率较高，但长期通胀预期似乎保持良好，这体现在家庭、企业和预测者的广泛调查以及金融市场的指标中。
货币政策
由于通胀率仍远高于我们2%的长期目标，并且劳动力市场状况仍然紧张，美联储公开市场委员会（FOMC）大幅收紧了货币政策立场。自去年初以来，我们已将政策利率上调了5个百分点，并继续以快节奏减少我们的证券持仓。我们已经看到我们的紧缩政策对经济中最受利率敏感的部门的需求产生了影响。然而，对于货币紧缩的全部影响，尤其是对通胀的影响，需要时间才能实现。
经济面临着家庭和企业信贷条件收紧的阻力，这可能对经济活动、就业和通胀产生影响。这些影响的程度仍不确定。
考虑到我们在紧缩货币政策方面取得的进展、货币政策对经济的影响滞后的不确定性以及信贷紧缩可能带来的阻力，上周FOMC决定将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在5%至5¼%之间，并继续大幅减少我们的证券持仓。几乎所有FOMC参与者预计，到年底时适当的加息幅度将进一步增加。但在上周的会议上，考虑到我们的行动幅度和速度，我们认为稳定利率目标区间是明智的，以便让委员会评估额外信息及其对货币政策的影响。在确定可能适合长期将通胀率回归2%的额外货币政策调整程度时，我们将考虑货币政策的累积紧缩、货币政策对经济活动和通胀的影响滞后以及经济和金融发展。我们将继续根据全部新数据及其对经济活动和通胀前景以及风险平衡的影响，逐次进行决策。
我们致力于将通胀率降至2%的目标水平，并保持长期通胀预期保持良好。降低通胀可能需要一个低于趋势增长水平的时期和劳动力市场状况的柔化。恢复价格稳定对于实现最大就业和长期稳定的物价至关重要。
在结束之前，让我简要谈一下银行业的状况。美国银行体系健康且具有韧性。正如6月货币政策报告中关于金融稳定的内容所述，美联储与财政部和联邦存款保险公司在3月采取了果断行动，以保护美国经济并增强公众对我们银行体系的信心。最近的银行倒闭，包括硅谷银行的倒闭以及由此产生的银行压力，凸显了确保我们拥有适当的规则和监管做法以应对这些规模的银行的重要性。我们致力于解决这些脆弱性，以建立一个更强大和更有弹性的银行体系。
我们明白我们的行动影响着全国各地的社区、家庭和企业。我们所做的一切都是为了履行我们的公共使命。美联储将竭尽全力实现我们的最大就业和物价稳定目标。
谢谢。我很乐意回答您的问题。
【英文版】
Chairman McHenry, Ranking Member Waters, and other members of the Committee, I appreciate the opportunity to present the Federal Reserve's semiannualMonetary Policy Report.
We at the Fed remain squarely focused on our dual mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices for the American people. My colleagues and I understand the hardship that high inflation is causing, and we remain strongly committed to bringing inflation back down to our 2 percent goal. Price stability is the responsibility of the Federal Reserve, and without it, the economy does not work for anyone. In particular, without price stability, we will not achieve a sustained period of strong labor market conditions that benefit all.
I will review the current economic situation before turning to monetary policy.
Current Economic Situation and Outlook
The U.S. economy slowed significantly last year, and recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a modest pace. Although growth in consumer spending has picked up this year, activity in the housing sector remains weak, largely reflecting higher mortgage rates. Higher interest rates and slower output growth also appear to be weighing on business fixed investment.
The labor market remains very tight. Over the first five months of the year, job gains averaged a robust 314,000 jobs per month. The unemployment rate moved up but remained low in May, at 3.7 percent. There are some signs that supply and demand in the labor market are coming into better balance. The labor force participation rate has moved up in recent months, particularly for individuals aged 25 to 54. Nominal wage growth has shown some signs of easing, and job vacancies have declined so far this year. While the jobs-to-workers gap has narrowed, labor demand still substantially exceeds the supply of available workers.1
Inflation remains well above our longer-run goal of 2 percent. Over the 12 months ending in April, total personal consumption expenditures (PCE) prices rose 4.4 percent; excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core PCE prices rose 4.7 percent. In May, the 12-month change in the consumer price index (CPI) came in at 4.0 percent, and the change in the core CPI was 5.3 percent. Inflation has moderated somewhat since the middle of last year. Nonetheless, inflation pressures continue to run high, and the process of getting inflation back down to 2 percent has a long way to go. Despite elevated inflation, longer-term inflation expectations appear to remain well anchored, as reflected in a broad range of surveys of households, businesses, and forecasters, as well as measures from financial markets.
Monetary Policy
With inflation remaining well above our longer-run goal of 2 percent and with labor market conditions remaining tight, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has significantly tightened the stance of monetary policy. We have raised our policy interest rate by 5 percentage points since early last year and have continued to reduce our securities holdings at a brisk pace.2We have been seeing the effects of our policy tightening on demand in the most interest rate–sensitive sectors of the economy. It will take time, however, for the full effects of monetary restraint to be realized, especially on inflation.
The economy is facing headwinds from tighter credit conditions for households and businesses, which are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation.3The extent of these effects remains uncertain.
In light of how far we have come in tightening policy, the uncertain lags with which monetary policy affects the economy, and potential headwinds from credit tightening, the FOMC decided last week to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5 to 5-1/4 percent and to continue the process of significantly reducing our securities holdings. Nearly all FOMC participants expect that it will be appropriate to raise interest rates somewhat further by the end of the year. But at last week's meeting, considering how far and how fast we have moved, we judged it prudent to hold the target range steady to allow the Committee to assess additional information and its implications for monetary policy. In determining the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate to return inflation to 2 percent over time, we will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments. We will continue to make our decisions meeting by meeting, based on the totality of incoming data and their implications for the outlook for economic activity and inflation, as well as the balance of risks.
We remain committed to bringing inflation back down to our 2 percent goal and to keeping longer-term inflation expectations well anchored. Reducing inflation is likely to require a period of below-trend growth and some softening of labor market conditions. Restoring price stability is essential to set the stage for achieving maximum employment and stable prices over the longer run.
Before concluding, let me briefly address the condition of the banking sector. The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient. As detailed in the box on financial stability in the June Monetary Policy Report, the Federal Reserve, together with the Treasury Department and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, took decisive action in March to protect the U.S. economy and to strengthen public confidence in our banking system. The recent bank failures, including the failure of Silicon Valley Bank, and the resulting banking stress have highlighted the importance of ensuring we have the appropriate rules and supervisory practices for banks of this size. We are committed to addressing these vulnerabilities to make for a stronger and more resilient banking system.
We understand that our actions affect communities, families, and businesses across the country. Everything we do is in service to our public mission. We at the Fed will do everything we can to achieve our maximum-employment and price-stability goals.
Thank you. I am happy to take your questions.