最新的民调，哈里斯领先。不过，这些民调，不论川普领先或贺锦丽领先，一天一个样，都不可靠。因为所有的民调都有一个局限：无法预测最后有多少人出来投票。2020年，共有1亿5千万人出来投票。你现在找800个人，不超过3000个人，打个电话，发个短信，邮件问一下他们投票意向，你如何能准确预测2024最终会有多少人出来投票？没错，那些开卡车的不参加民调，另一方面，那些年轻的大学生也不参加民调。2022年中期选举，通货膨胀最严重的时候，民调说会出现红色浪潮，众议员共和党会多赢60多个席位，结果红色浪潮没有出现，只多了5，6个席位，导致议长轻易被罢免。
没错， 川普在拉美，黑人男性的支持率上升。 另一方面，贺锦丽在白人妇女，郊区选民的支持率也上升。 在温和共和党员的支持方面也上升。 今天，前共和党州长施瓦辛格，也宣布背书贺锦丽。统计显示注册为共和党的选民，今年提前投票的增加了，但无法证明，他们的票都是投给川普的。
在我看来，决定今年大选的关键，在于共和党里面，20% 支持黑利的，有多少会投给贺锦丽。
Harris leads Trump 49%-47% among likely voters in the latest Economist/YouGov survey out Wednesday, with 2% unsure and roughly 3% backing other candidates (margin of error 3.6)—a slight narrowing from Harris’ 49%-46% edge last week.
Harris is up 51%-47%—with just 3% still undecided—in a very large likely voter poll by the Cooperative Election Study, a survey backed by several universities and conducted by YouGov, which polled around 50,000 people from Oct. 1 to 25.
Trump also trails Harris 44%-43% in a Reuters/Ipsos poll published Tuesday (margin of error 3 points), representing a narrowed lead for Harris since she entered the race in July, with the previous Reuters/Ipsos poll showing her ahead by two points.
Harris is up three points over Trump, 50%-47%, in Morning Consult’s weekly survey, also released Tuesday (margin of error 1 point), after she led by four points, 50%-46%, in the group’s previous two polls.
Harris leads Trump by four points, 51%-47%, in an ABC/Ipsos poll of likely voters released Sunday, up slightly from her 50%-48% edge in early October, while a CBS/YouGov survey out Sunday shows Harris up 50%-49%, a shift from the vice president’s 51%-48% mid-October lead (the ABC poll had a margin of error of 2.5, and the CBS poll’s margin of error was 2.6).
Trump’s Puerto Rico fallout is ‘spreading like wildfire’ in Pennsylvania
Donald Trump has a serious Puerto Rico problem — in Pennsylvania.
Many Puerto Rican voters in the state are furious about racist and demeaning comments delivered at a Trump rally. Some say their dismay is giving Kamala Harris a new opening to win over the state’s Latino voters, particularlynearly half a million Pennsylvanians of Puerto Rican descent.
Evidence of the backlash was immediate on Monday: A nonpartisan Puerto Rican group drafted a letter urging its members to oppose Trump on election day. Other Puerto Rican voters were lighting up WhatsApp chats with reactions to the vulgar display and raising it in morning conversations at their bodegas. Some are planning to protest Trump’s rally Tuesday in Allentown, a majority-Latino city with one of the largest Puerto Rican populations in the state.
And the arena Trump is speaking at is located in the middle of the city’s Puerto Rican neighborhood.
“It’s spreading like wildfire through the community,” said Norberto Dominguez, a precinct captain with the local Democratic party in Allentown, who noted his own family is half Republican and half Democratic voters.
“This was just like a gift from the gods,” said Victor Martinez, an Allentown resident who owns the Spanish language radio station La Mega, noting some Puerto Rican voters in the area have been on the fence about voting at all.
“If we weren't engaged before, we're all paying attention now,” Martinez said. He added the morning radio show he hosts was chock-full of callers Monday sounding off on the Trump rally comments, including a Puerto Rican Trump supporter who is now telling people not to vote for the former president.
Roberto L. Lugo, President of the Pennsylvania Chapter of the National Puerto Rican Agenda, said the nonpartisan group will be releasing a letter, shared exclusively with POLITICO, condemning the comments and urging Pennsylvania Puerto Ricans not to vote for Trump. Lugo, who was born in Puerto Rico and now lives in Philadelphia, said Pennsylvania Puerto Ricans are “really disturbed” over the comments.
“I’m not a Republican, I’m not a Democrat, I'm independent,” Lugo said. “But at this point, it’s not about political, partisan issues. It is about the respect and honor our Puerto Ricans and Latinos deserved as citizens and legal residents of this country, that’s the issue.”
“We held Trump and his campaign responsible for this disgraceful act,” he added.
美国大选在即，依据民调，副总统贺锦丽（Kamala Harris）与前总统川普（Donald Trump）势均力敌。
不过美国已故前总统列根（Ronald Reagan，又译雷根）的前政治分析师凯希希安（Craig Keshishian）认为，其实真实选情并没有那么接近，因为现阶段民调数据没捕捉到激增的隐性选民，或许川普的支持者非常多。
每日邮报报道，凯希希安以共和党籍列根总统1980年压倒性胜选为例，当时列根与对手卡特（Jimmy Carter）的民调数据也是势均力敌，选情同样胶著。
但列根最终一举横扫44州拿下489张选举人票，普选票也取得10个百分点的优势，压倒性击败民主党籍卡特。
凯希希安指出，其实美国有一群人住在农村郊区，每週工时40小时，搬货、经营小型企业，这些人的声音不常被听到，也不一定每次都会参加选举，被形容成“沉默的大多数”（The Silent Majority）。
这些人厌倦通货膨胀、工厂关闭、外交政策失败、犯罪激增等，属于无党派人士或是保守民主党人，并非典型共和党人。
在选前一周之际，凯希希安点出4大迹象，认为本届总统大选可能重演1980年当时的情况。
1. 太阳带（SUN BELT）共和党浪潮
在拜登贺锦丽政府执政之下，内华达、亚利桑那州处于大规模非法移民影响的最前线，这两州共和党选民提前投票的状况高于民主党选民，扭转民主党的优势。
2. 风灾灾民
飓风海伦强袭美国造成多州民众家园被毁，生活大受衝击，或许会认为如今选举投票这件事会是受灾户最不关心的事。
但事实恰恰相反，北卡罗来纳州共和党人提前投票的人数超越民主党，邻近的乔治亚州提早投票的状况也同样强劲。
3. 关键摇摆州战场宾州
宾夕法尼亚州是最难预测分析的州之一，但也很可能是选举最关键的一州，若川普在宾夕法尼亚州失利，在取得选举人票获胜的这条路会出现严重阻碍。
目前宾夕法尼亚州提前投票的状况是民主党优于共和党，但是领先幅度已经没有4年前那么多，是个显著改变。上週，宾夕法尼亚州民主党参议员费特曼（John Fetterman）更称，宾夕法尼亚州选民对川普的支持强度令人惊讶。
4. 民主党盟友动摇
密歇根州过去是民主党蓝牆（Blue wall），也是阿拉伯裔美国人最集中的地区，但由于现任政府持续支持以色列，如今力挺贺锦丽的态度似乎出现变化；民调显示，川普在密歇根州阿拉伯裔美国选民之中，以46%比42%领先贺锦丽，且非裔、西班牙裔选民也倾向支持川普。
另外，佛罗里达州迈阿密戴德郡传统上是民主党据点，但该郡共和党人如今在提前投票这一块领先民主党近3万票。