cdc 网站上https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/safety/adverse-events.html
到目前为止，接种疫苗后总计2509个死亡，但是，没有证据显示疫苗是致死的因素。
Over 145 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines were administered in the United States from December 14, 2020, through March 29, 2021. During this time, VAERS received 2,509 reports of death (0.0017%) among people who received a COVID-19 vaccine. CDC and FDA physicians review each case report of death as soon as notified and CDC requests medical records to further assess reports. A review of available clinical information including death certificates, autopsy, and medical records revealed no evidence that vaccination contributed to patient deaths.
The U.S. reported more than 78,000 new cases for Monday, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University that was published early Tuesday. The data may update later. Not all states report data on new cases daily. Monday’s figure was sharply higher than the previous day’s tally, as several states, including Ohio, Minnesota and Kentucky didn’t report data on Easter Sunday. Those states resumed reporting on Monday.
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/covid-2021-04-06
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newbigman 发表评论于 2021-04-06 06:53:14
标准犬 搞不懂啥叫 7 day moving average.
@standardpoodle
If you understand English well, you should know that the only reason US have a big spike on Monday is due to the fact that some of the cases from Sunday were not counted on Sunday but instead counted on Monday.
Monday’s figure was sharply higher than the previous day’s tally, as several states, including Ohio, Minnesota and Kentucky didn’t report data on Easter Sunday.
@standardpoodle
There is nothing wrong to report single day new cases. This is right.
But it is fundamentally wrong to predict the cases in 7 days based on data from one day only (especially Monday).
"估计这周会到100,000以上" is a wrong prediction.
prediction of over 100,000 someday this week is my personal opinion mostly based on the increasing of social activities in holidays...
I do not know how you can come to the comment this prediction is wrong when we have several days to go this week...
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newbigman 发表评论于 2021-04-06 07:37:19
烈三公孙 发表评论于 2021-04-06 07:45:07
据统计，迄今全球以生产进2.5亿剂疫苗；
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小编急需提高中文水平。短短半句话，就有两个错别字：以（已）、进（近）。
There is a 3rd error too!
The number 2.5亿 is also wrong.
@standardpoodle
That is exactly the reason that I said "you don't know the moving average".
If you understand Statistic 101, you shall predict the future based on moving average, not based on a single day's new cases.
If one bet the future based on one single data, he will lost his underwear.
7-day avg is just a general trend of happened issue, it is has noting to do with prediction...the prediction has to be related to some important factors involved infectious disease control, such as control of origin, transmission control etc..
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newbigman 发表评论于 2021-04-06 07:58:07
@standardpoodle
That is exactly the reason that I said "you don't know the moving average".
If you understand Statistic 101, you shall predict the future based on moving average, not based on a single day's new cases.
If one bet the future based on one single data, he will lost his underwear.
@standardpoodle
it will be fruitless for us to argue more on this topic.
Only time will tell who is right.
My prediction by end of this week is less than 80K (based on curve only)
of course, you can take the liberty of doing that...have a good one!
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newbigman 发表评论于 2021-04-06 08:27:46
@standardpoodle
it will be fruitless for us to argue more on this topic.
Only time will tell who is right.
My prediction by end of this week is less than 80K (based on curve only)
@standardpoodle
you too.
PS: I live in this country, love this country and wish the best for this country. Another spike is for sure not the best for this country and that is why I was very defensive. Please accept my apology if I sounded offending to u.
No problem.
I live in Canada. we are experiencing the 3rd wave. The number of infected whole province keeps on climbing everyday, my city is being under new lock-down...
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newbigman 发表评论于 2021-04-06 08:43:25
@standardpoodle
you too.
PS: I live in this country, love this country and wish the best for this country. Another spike is for sure not the best for this country and that is why I was very defensive. Please accept my apology if I sounded offending to u.
美国国家广播公司新闻网记者史密斯(Alexander Smith)日前发表专文分析，文中指出随着俄国在南美洲、中国大陆在非洲积极拓展疫苗外交，北京与莫斯科利用外销或捐赠疫苗已扭转其国际关系，更在全球范围扩大影响力；相较之下，美国与民主国家不但缺席这场国际赛事，更因国民优先政策而将大部分疫苗留于国内，造成其他国家的不满。美国与其盟友在疫苗外交战事中，可谓未战而先遭陆俄蹂躏。
文中指出，在俄国出售520万剂”史普尼克V”疫苗之后，俄国总统普丁(Vladimir Putin)于1月下旬中与玻利维亚总统阿尔斯(Luis Arce)举行电话会议。两人商讨议题涵盖核电厂兴建、开采锂矿与天然气储存等等。
无独有偶，自从中国大陆于3月无偿提供阿尔及利亚陆制疫苗之后，后者开始支持北京在核心利益的主张，并反对外国干涉内政。过去以来，中南海持续利用这类的话语，来反击国际对香港自治遭侵害的批评，与对新疆维吾尔族人权遭侵害的指控。
虽然北京与莫斯科不愿承认；但文中指称，两国正利用外销与捐赠疫苗，抚平疫情爆发以来的外交挫折，更深化其在全球的影响力。美国外交官警告，美国与民主国家应严重关切此事。
对于美外交人员而言，可耻的不是北京与莫斯科在疫苗外交上获胜，而是美国与西方民主国家还未参赛，就已节节败退；特别是，美国与西方盟国为了优先国内人口施打，将大部分的疫苗留在国内而引发他国的不满。
美国前国务次卿向农(Thomas Shannon)警告，退出疫苗竞赛让人不安。迄今许多国家面对新冠肺炎时，仍然是非常脆弱的国家，而川普执政时却退出国际有关新冠肺炎的会议。除非拜登力挽狂澜，否则全世界会意识到美国并非可靠的伙伴，而这对美国来说非常危险。
文中指出，不论大陆还是俄国，都否认出口外交目的是为了外交利益。政协发言人郭卫民3月时表示，把疫苗形容为利益是一种”极为狭隘的想法”，习近平瞄准的是让疫苗成为全球公共利益。
克里姆林宫（Kremlin）发言人培斯科夫(Dmitry Peskov)也提到，俄国深信唯有尽可能的接种疫苗，所有的国家、甚至是最贫穷的国家，才有机会制止大流行。
据统计，迄今全球以生产进2.5亿剂疫苗；其中，中国大陆已49个国家发送1.18亿剂疫苗。相较之下，俄国则提供22个国家疫苗，而印度则将生产的近1.5亿支疫苗中的6,400万剂疫苗，以出口或捐赠的方式输出。外界分析，这是为了平衡北京疫苗外交产生的影响力。
相较之下，美国提供国内民众逾2亿剂疫苗，而仅提供约400万计的阿斯特捷利康疫苗，给墨西哥与加拿大。西方的疫苗民族主义，在中低与中等收入国家中创造疫苗真空，导致后者始终无法取得疫苗，而北京与莫斯科则乐见并介入。
经济学人智库（EIU）全球预测部负责人德马雷斯(Agathe Demarais)认为，大陆与俄罗斯的疫苗流向之处，皆指向西方与陆、俄长期以来争夺且更具影响力的国家。
其中，埃及便是关键战场。埃及每年自美国取得13亿美元的援助，却长期以来与西方因人权而关系紧张。尽管埃及已和辉瑞、阿斯特捷利康、大陆国药集团与俄国史普尼克V计划，采购上千万剂疫苗；但最早抵达开罗的疫苗却是大陆生产的疫苗。
美国派驻非洲的前大使坎贝尔认为，这让俄国与大陆对非洲国家而言更具吸引力；这导致这些国家表面虽然增加民主的外貌，但却更被专制型态的政府所吸引。
向农则警告，疫苗外交让俄国能走出传统势力范围委内瑞拉，而在拉丁美洲其他地区插旗；在东欧地区，面临西方疫苗供给短缺下，塞尔维亚与匈牙利将更拥抱大陆与俄国疫苗。
当然，北京与莫斯科扩大影响力不只靠疫苗分享；事实上，俄国透过军售、中国大陆透过一带一路与基础建设，这些都让疫苗外交相形见拙。但是，疫苗外交是几十年来，北京与莫斯科试图扩大在南方国家影响力并挑战现有秩序下，另一新杀手锏。大流行不曾创造新趋势，而是加速现有转变的脚步。
此外，大陆更有西方国家所没有的优势，即无须考虑选民因无法取得疫苗而不满。这让疫情大流行期间，北京无须把疫苗留在自家家里。德马雷斯认为，此时拜登只因为想平衡陆俄影响力，而向南美或非洲输送百万疫苗，根本就是政治自杀。
甚至，北京与莫斯科也深深明了经营疫苗公共关系。美国阿富汗与巴基斯坦特别代表欧尔森(Richard Olson)表示，大陆善于快速行动，透过象征性的捐赠仪式，赚取大量媒体曝光率。
不过，前述趋势在拜登上台后开始转变。相较于川普时期对全球疫苗表现兴致缺缺，拜登一改前任做法，宣布捐赠40亿美元给疫苗全球取得机制（COVAX），还呼吁盟国将疫苗余额分配给贫穷国家。美国、印度、日本与澳洲更联合反攻，宣布至2023年将捐赠10亿剂疫苗。美国国务院发言人波特(Jalina Porter)日前被问及疫苗外交一事，不愿提到大陆而仅表示”美国在击败全球大流行上发挥领导作用”。
但文中认为，此举恐为时已晚；更何况，拜登的重点仍在国内。其为陆军购买数百万剂疫苗，并决定只有在每位美国民众都获得接种后才捐出给发展中国家。德马雷斯强调，”如果我是大使，而又要参加这场疫苗之战，我也会认为美国输了竞赛”。