特约评论员 管姚:俄乌军事冲突代价惊人,尽快停火止损符合两国的根本利益,但悲催的是,能否停火止战,并不取决于这两个当事国的抉择。美国战略学界不是在叫嚷,要不惜打到只剩最后一个乌克兰人吗,《华盛顿邮报》知名国际事务观察员伊格纳休斯,也在最新专栏文章中呼吁,要锁定俄乌冲突的胜果,美国必须利用这段大国博弈的最新窗口期加速出招,加速布局。伊格纳休斯在专栏标题中如此描述大国博弈新态势:U.S. and allies up, Russia down,美西方升,俄罗斯降。
没错,美国政府和媒体要比普京的命令更有效!听听美国主流媒体怎么讲的好吗? Washington will fight Russia to the last Ukrainian!中文意思就是:美国和俄罗斯要战斗到最后一个乌克兰人!到底谁在真正的战斗明白了吗?难道你们连美国的主流媒体都不相信了吗?去查一查最近美国防长怎么说的,再去查一查最近美国学术界和主流媒体怎么说的,你们就明白了。现在战斗到最后一个乌克兰人了吗?没有!所以战争还要继续打下去直至战斗到最后一个乌克兰人为止!“能否停火止战,并不取决于这两个当事国的抉择” 这么直白的一句话难道你们真的听不懂吗?是真傻还是装傻?
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枫城俠客 发表评论于 2022-05-21 08:52:00 “能否停火止战,并不取决于这两个当事国的抉择”,俄罗斯是入侵国,他们把军队撤出乌克兰就能停火了,难道美国政府和媒体要比普京的命令更有效!
马里乌波尔之后, 乌军的在被北顿巴斯的形势不好,约一万精锐被切割,最后一条补给公路进入俄军攻击范围,西媒报道中也可以看出端倪.
华盛顿战争研究所:Russian forces reportedly intensified efforts to break through Ukrainian defenses around Popasna in order to push towards Severodonetsk from the south on May 20. Pro-Russian news sources reported that Russian forces made advances through Ukrainian lines of defense in three directions. Russian Airborne (VDV) forces reportedly took control of Volodymirivka and Lypove, and broke through Ukrainian defenses in Komyshuvakha, all north of Popasna. Troops of the Russian ”Wagner” Private Military Company reportedly took control of Trypillya and Vyskrivka to the west of Popasna. Ukrainian sources noted that offensive operations are on-going in Vyskrivka. Russian forces additionally reportedly took control of Troitske, south of Popasna. Such reports are consistent with Ukrainian General Staff statements that the Russian grouping around Popasna is trying to take new frontiers in the area
纽时: "With Russia’s campaign in Ukraine increasingly focused on the south and east, it is making “incremental progress” in the Donbas region, according to the Pentagon spokesman."
纽约时报关于乌克兰的重要社论: nytimes.coM/2022/05/19/opinion/america-ukraine-war-support.htmL
社论节选一:
Recent bellicose statements from Washington — President Biden’s assertion that Mr. Putin “cannot remain in power,” Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin’s comment that Russia must be “weakened” and the pledge by the House speaker, Nancy Pelosi, that the United States would support Ukraine “until victory is won” — may be rousing proclamations of support, but they do not bring negotiations any closer.
In the end, it is the Ukrainians who must make the hard decisions: They are the ones fighting, dying and losing their homes to Russian aggression, and it is they who must decide what an end to the war might look like. If the conflict does lead to real negotiations, it will be Ukrainian leaders who will have to make the painful territorial decisions that any compromise will demand.
节选二:
as the war continues, Mr. Biden should also make clear to President Volodymyr Zelensky and his people that there is a limit to how far the United States and NATO will go to confront Russia, and limits to the arms, money and political support they can muster. It is imperative that the Ukrainian government’s decisions be based on a realistic assessment of its means and how much more destruction Ukraine can sustain.
Confronting this reality may be painful, but it is not appeasement. This is what governments are duty bound to do, not chase after an illusory “win.”
社论节选二:
as the war continues, Mr. Biden should also make clear to President Volodymyr Zelensky and his people that there is a limit to how far the United States and NATO will go to confront Russia, and limits to the arms, money and political support they can muster. It is imperative that the Ukrainian government’s decisions be based on a realistic assessment of its means and how much more destruction Ukraine can sustain.
Confronting this reality may be painful, but it is not appeasement. This is what governments are duty bound to do, not chase after an illusory “win.”
亚速钢铁厂 资料图
直新闻:马里乌波尔亚速钢铁厂的最后战事已落幕,俄军宣称,有近千名乌军据守士兵放下武器。你对此怎么看?你对俄乌东部会战有何观察?
特约评论员 管姚:虽然俄乌都已通报,在亚速钢铁厂深达6层的地下隧道工事内,可能还有困守士兵在,但普遍估计人数有限,这些最后困守者是否能及时了解外部情况,恐怕都要打上问号,所以最后困守者缴枪走出隧道也只是时间问题。这意味着俄乌冲突最激烈争夺最持久也是死伤最惨重的局部战事,以俄罗斯全面掌控马里乌波尔划上句号,俄方取得打响战事以来的最大战果。
但代价也是显而易见的,马里乌波尔九成建筑被毁,曾是欧洲最大钢铁加工基地的亚速钢铁厂近乎成为废墟。战争之残酷之血腥,被炸烂了的马城与海边的亚速钢铁厂,是最有说服力的见证。
就俄乌东部顿巴斯会战,虽然双方都声称军事行动进入新阶段,但战事再度陷于胶着,双方都无法速胜,俄乌两军再度形成某种拉锯式动态平衡。俄军装甲洪流大规模会战场景并未出现,乌军在美西方军援尤其是大型、重型武器全面武装下,东部抵抗也并未处下风,甚至在一些局部战场,还有明显进展,比如在第二大城市哈尔科夫,乌军周二宣布已击退俄军进攻,重演首都基辅防卫战一幕,此外,乌军上周在顿涅茨河附近,也对试图渡河的俄军两个战术营实施围歼。
就集中优势兵力的俄军而言,彻底拿下马里乌波尔,巩固了俄军对陆路通道的掌控,彻底贯通从克里米亚经马里乌波尔到俄在乌东控制区与俄本土一线。所以俄乌东部会战新态势意味着,如果双方没有主动选择与作为,恐怕战事还将持久化,这无论对乌克兰对俄罗斯乃至对外部世界,都是不可承受之重。
资料图
直新闻:一旦军事行动化,对俄乌双方意味着什么,有哪些严重后果?
特约评论员 管姚:值得关注的是,近来交战双方都释放出一些令人不安的信号,乌总统办公室顾问也是乌克兰谈判代表团成员的波多利亚克昨天宣称,俄乌谈判已暂停,他今天再度发推强调,在俄从乌克兰撤出全部军队前,停火不可能实现。乌总统另一名顾问阿莱斯托维奇 (Arestovich)昨天也在乌电视台喊话,称泽连斯基正寻求将国家战时状态再延90天,此前乌总统已两度延长各为期30天的战时状态,阿莱斯托维奇预判,战事在今年秋季前不可能结束。
针对俄对乌特别军事行动,近来俄国内主流舆论场也罕见地出现反思声音。俄著名军事记者尤里·柯特尼克,上周在社交媒体发贴,就俄军两个装甲营渡河失败遭重创一战作出分析,严批行动指挥官出现重大失误,将过多装甲车辆集中于狭小区域,等同战场自杀行为。
而俄退役上校米哈伊尔·霍达雷诺克(Mikhail Khodarenok )周二在俄国家电视台一档节目中更公开唱反调,指俄媒有关“乌军已陷士气及心理大崩溃”的分析根本不靠谱,乌方在美西方军援下有能力再武装100万预备役,“坦率地说,俄军接下来战场态势可能更糟糕”,他也承认俄在地缘环境上已陷“国际孤立”。当然在相关言论被美西方媒体广泛转载转播后,霍达雷诺克周三已放低调门,他在国家电视台找补称,预判乌克兰有能力搞反攻完全是夸大其辞。
俄乌冲突已持续近三月,如果继续打下去而且要实现俄方目标,俄军投入到乌东的现有军力,是不可能完成的,且不说英国国防部所谓俄军在乌战力消耗退出已达1/3的战损评估靠不靠谱,俄方还有没有进一步对乌增兵的腾挪空间?如果常规常事无法取得决定性胜利,俄方会动用大杀伤武器吗?而且俄罗斯当下面对的外部战略环境,显然比军事行动前更加凶险严峻,美国对北约东线增兵已常态化,北约北扩也箭在弦上。
乌克兰就更不用说了,1000多万国民流离失所,至少已有价值600亿美元的基础设施被毁,而泽连斯基也确认,战争状态下乌政府维持运行,每月至少需70亿美元,战争每多打一天,乌克兰的国家战损账本,就会又多出一串天文数字。甚至俄乌冲突的高昂代价也并不只是两个交战国在承受,飞涨的原油与天然气价格不用说了,就在昨天,联合国粮农组织再发警告,如果包括马里乌波尔在内的乌南部港口继续被封锁,乌克兰粮食运不出去,不少发展中国家的口粮危机将进一步加剧。
拜登 资料图
直新闻:美国总统拜登周四在白宫会见芬瑞两国领导人,这两个北约国家昨天已联合提出加入北约的书面申请,这又意味着什么?
特约评论员 管姚:俄乌军事冲突代价惊人,尽快停火止损符合两国的根本利益,但悲催的是,能否停火止战,并不取决于这两个当事国的抉择。美国战略学界不是在叫嚷,要不惜打到只剩最后一个乌克兰人吗,《华盛顿邮报》知名国际事务观察员伊格纳休斯,也在最新专栏文章中呼吁,要锁定俄乌冲突的胜果,美国必须利用这段大国博弈的最新窗口期加速出招,加速布局。伊格纳休斯在专栏标题中如此描述大国博弈新态势:U.S. and allies up, Russia down,美西方升,俄罗斯降。
拜登在白宫会见芬瑞领导人,是他开启总统任内亚洲首访前的最后一场外交活动,其信号非常明确,就是要作为北约老大发号施令,全力支持两国加入北约。
过去这一周,瑞芬两国申请加入北约按下了快进键,就在两国递交书面申请当天,瑞典防长周三走进五角大楼与美防长奥斯汀会晤,瑞方称,美方已提供安全保证,在瑞入约前的过渡期,美方将有包括海军舰艇巡航波罗的海、空军轰炸机飞航瑞典所在斯堪的纳维亚半岛、陆军与瑞军联合训练等一系列行动安排。所以我还是坚持之前的判断,尽管北约内常规军力排第二的土耳其方面,对北约北扩有不同意见,但土方反对只是茶杯里的风波,并不作数,在北约最后话事的,有且只有美国一国。
而且在我看来,土耳其的反对也只是姿态性的,意在争取外交筹码,昨天美国务卿布林肯也在华盛顿会见来访的土耳其外长,美方显然是要就此做工作。所以,俄罗斯注定要面对更加抵近军力更强成员更多的北约。