高盛下调美国经济预测 警告关税影响远超预期

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随着川普政府的贸易政策加剧全球经济不确定性,高盛(Goldman Sachs)大幅下调美国经济成长预测,并警告关税对市场的影响远超预期。

高盛经济学家哈齐亚斯(Jan Hatzius)表示,由于贸易战的不确定性以及关税对消费者与企业的负面影响,美国经济成长预测由先前的2.4%下调至1.7%。高盛认为,川普政府的贸易政策正直接损害经济,且影响程度超出预期。

哈齐亚斯进一步指出,关税的影响主要体现在3个方面──第一,推高消费者价格,削弱实质收入;第二,关税导致金融环境趋向保守;第三,企业因政策的不确定性而延后投资计划”。

由于川普拒绝断言美国经济不会衰退,市场信心进一步受挫。美国股市10日开盘大幅下跌,那斯达克下挫5%,标普500指数下跌4.6%。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)预测,若贸易战进一步升级,标普500可能再下跌5%。

摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)警告称,若美国未调整贸易战策略,经济衰退的风险将扩大至全球各地,尤其欧洲可能受到严重冲击。该行经济学家卡斯曼(Bruce Kasman)预测,今年全球经济衰退风险上升至40%。

尽管市场震荡与经济前景恶化,川普政府内部官员仍坚称美国经济基本面稳固。商务部长卢特尼克(Howard Lutnick)表示:“美国不会陷入经济衰退。川普总统将带领美国经济继续成长,未来两年将见证历史性的经济扩张”。

然而,联准会(Fed)近期数据显示,美国经济成长正在放缓。亚特兰大联邦储备银行的最新预测显示,美国第一季经济将萎缩2.4%,与去年第四季2.3%的成长形成鲜明对比。

顾问机构凯投宏观(Capital Economics)指出,近期美国经济萎缩与关税政策有关,特别是进口商在关税提高前囤积商品,导致后续需求减弱。该机构分析师戴尔斯(Paul Dales)表示:“我们开始看到消费者支出减少,显示经济可能存在根本性的疲软”。

摩根大通补充道,川普政府反复无常的政策声明正在削弱企业信心,而股市波动则进一步影响投资决策。“即使避免全面贸易战,来回的威胁已足以拖累全球经济成长”。

除了美国本土,英国智库“政策交流”(Policy Exchange)两位研究员警告,英国应开始储备芯片与药品以应对美国关税。如果英国企业无法从美国进口关键产品,英国政府必须制订配套政策,确保供应链危机时至少能维持90天供应。

相信事实
1 楼
床铺就是想造成全球经济危机,这样股市大跌的钱才能不得不购买美债避险。这是华尔街玩了无数次的游戏,美国就是这样剪世界羊毛的。 只不过这次美国剪不到中国的羊毛,只能剪萌友们啦
相信事实
2 楼
美国股市现在才刚刚开始跌,今年下半年会大跌超过一半,等待秋天再扯蛋是不是会见底吧。现在想活命就赶快做空。
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Bhistory
3 楼
rumble. com/v6qgwfs-live-with-julie.html?e9s=src_v1_ucp THE HIDDEN SECRETS OF THE SWAMP ARE ALL COMING OUT [Word heard – March 9, 2025] For I the Lord this day am telling My children that an avalanche of scandals being exposed will bury your enemies underneath of it: sexual scandals, money laundering scandals, treasonous scandals, election scandals. You name it. All scandals are coming to the surface that will destroy any credibility your enemies have left. Media scandals are coming that will destroy what is left of the MSM control over the nations. I told you their scripts will all be released. I will show you who is the Architect that writes them and how it’s sent out on a private server to be dispersed so the MSM have their talking points every day that they must abide by. The unprecedented amount of cover-ups journalists were told to hide or destroy evidence of what had been found. So much proof was hidden from this nation to keep the Establishment and their puppets in governmental positions. This massive propaganda arm of the Elites will be destroyed with the Truth. Every place your enemies have been in power, have used their system and devices over you will all collapse. Many of you may say Lord how can all this be? Our enemies have ruled and reigned for as long as some of us have been alive. Their systems have been embedded into everything. How does something that big, that has lasted this long, just disappear?
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Bhistory
4 楼
Part 2/3 My children My hand can make anything disappear that’s against Me. Judgment will hit your enemies in unprecedented and unconventional ways. You’re in a time of a great collapse, a collapse of everything your enemies hold dear. It will all soon be clear there is nothing impossible for Me to handle and I can and will deliver you out of it all says the Lord of Hosts. Affairs…get used to hearing this word. Many politicians have been covering up scandalous affairs. Some with foreign agents and informants from other countries that have trapped your governmental officials in a no-win situation, betray their country or be exposed, humiliated, removed from their positions and their lives destroyed or die. Many of your governmental officials have given your military intel, security intel, financial intel, you name it – the swamp rats are giving away secrets in unprecedented ways to foreign govts, for money, for more money and guaranteed election wins for a trade – to keep their positions. Bribe after bribe and blackmail after blackmail, affair after affair, I will reveal the taxpayer money that has funded sexual scandals of many politicians that your enemies tried to disguise as normal budget expenses. My children I will show you how fake the Swamp really is because many marriages were for power and position and convenience rather than love and why bloodlines are also important to the Establishment. The truth on the Obamas is soon to be clear on what their marriage was really meant for. It’s a lie and proof is coming that cannot be denied.
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Bhistory
5 楼
PART 3 of 3 Bill and Hillary Clinton…there was more to the Lewinsky situation that was not allowed to be put out in public. Bill has a major issue on his hands when his sexual lifestyle is revealed to the world and why him and Hillary were forced into a marriage neither one of them wanted. Kamala and Doug…that marriage will implode and the truth will come out why they were put together. Doug’s affairs and scandals will all come out with no way the media can suppress the real truth about him. My children, everything fake in your govt will be revealed and truth will crush your enemy’s lies that have protected their system. All this will implode in front of you. The hidden secrets of the Swamp are all coming out. So hold on the tsunami wave is about to hit your enemies with such force, they will not be able to withstand it. Laptops are coming with explosive force. Everything hidden with their servers and all its contents are coming out in the open. My Light is destroying your enemy’s darkness. This is My land and every enemy will be removed from power in this hour says the Lord Your Redeemer.
蓝靛厂
6 楼
相信事实 发表评论于 2025-03-11 15:19:08 美国股市现在才刚刚开始跌,今年下半年会大跌超过一半,等待秋天再扯蛋是不是会见底吧。现在想活命就赶快做空。 ---- 吓尿了。是跟燕郊的房价一样吗
a
alextelltale
7 楼
跌幅更大的是美国的一些跟班,比如加拿大,德国,法国,英国。
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Observerx
8 楼
既然不确定就不要预测糊弄人了
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gladys
9 楼
所有的坏消息出来时就是买入的时机。
玻璃坊
10 楼
多好的经济也经不起这么折腾
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5mslj
11 楼
相信事实 发表评论于 2025-03-11 15:19:08 美国股市现在才刚刚开始跌,今年下半年会大跌超过一半,等待秋天再扯蛋是不是会见底吧。现在想活命就赶快做空。 —————————— 本来我是很看空的,但你这货在文学城说话从来没对过,搞得我心里有些发毛
相信事实
12 楼
床铺号召你们相信他呀,赶快买买买。
还有没被注册的用户名没
13 楼
川帝说了,你们把心放肚子里吧,我们从关税得来的钱要多得不知道怎么花,钱会哗哗滴流进美利坚MAGA:))
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Michelle北美1
14 楼
明天股票会大涨。
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wisfan
15 楼
高盛一直在唱衰美国,它可以从恐慌中闷头发大财。
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bob2022
16 楼
中国加拿大也涨了关税,拿钱也是花不完啊。
谁想找抽1
17 楼
股市把川粉吓尿了,连话都说不出来,只能使劲的剪贴,哈哈哈。。