The expected decision by Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to end his presidential bid comes as his poll numbers have fallen to the level of a run-of-the-mill third-party candidate, after initially showing notably strong support.
And while it is hard to foresee the effect his decision might have on the election, an endorsement of former President Donald J. Trump would be unlikely to change the nature of the race, even if it was well-received by Mr. Kennedy’s supporters.
This is in part because it is hard to know how many of Mr. Kennedy’s supporters will vote in November. They are less likely than others to have voted in 2020, and are also less likely to say they will vote come November.
And it has not been clear which candidate Mr. Kennedy draws more votes from now that President Biden is out of the race. In recent Times/Siena polls, when pushed, Mr. Kennedy’s supporters were more inclined to support Mr. Trump. But other recent high-quality polls had found him to be pulling support from Vice President Kamala Harris.
That is partially a reflection of how quickly public opinion has been changing over the last few weeks. And when high-quality polls show different findings on similar questions, it is often an indication that the opinions being measured are not strongly held.
In fact, only a minority of Mr. Kennedy’s supporters in recent Times/Siena polls said they would definitely vote for him, an indication that they might still be making up their minds.
美国2024年的大选将在副总统哈里斯和前总统特朗普之间展开。独立候选人小肯尼迪（Robert F. Kennedy Jr.）有意退选，并支持特朗普，这可能会影响关键摇摆州选民的选择。小肯尼迪的华裔女副手沙纳汉（Nicole Shanahan）称，民主党害怕了，疯狂给她打电话。
据福克斯新闻报道，沙纳汉8月22日在社交媒体X上说，她的民主党老朋友一直在疯狂地给她打电话，发短信和邮件。
她还说，她不会公开这些私人对话，但是民主党人的信息很明确，“他们害怕我们与特朗普联手”。
她还说：“当我指出民主党和他们的超级政治行动委员会为破坏我们的竞选活动所做的事情时，他们的回应总是，‘但特朗普更糟糕”。我有个想法：别起诉我们了。让我们辩论一下。别再操纵媒体和民意调查了。这是一个简单的公式，大家都明白。”
《纽约时报》和美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）8月21日引述消息人士报道，小肯尼迪预计会在23日宣布退选，转而支持共和党总统候选人特朗普。
分析认为，一些关键摇摆州的选举结果可能因此受影响。根据《国会山报》本周进行的全国民意调查，小肯尼迪的支持率仅为8.7%。不过分析认为，考虑到特朗普和美国副总统哈里斯之间的竞争非常激烈，小肯尼迪如果退选，他的支持者的选票可能足以影响摇摆州的选举结果。
小肯尼迪的华裔女副手沙纳汉8月20日在接受采访时说：“我们正在考虑两种选择，一种是留下来，组建新的政党，但这存在让哈里斯和沃尔兹当选的风险，因为我们从特朗普那里分走了选票。或者，我们现在退选，与特朗普联手。”
她还补充说，自己一生最大的错误之一就是过去支持民主党。
对于小肯尼迪可能退选并支持他一事，特朗普20日在接受CNN采访时说，他对此表示欢迎，他一直很喜欢和尊重小肯尼迪。特朗普还说，他若胜选，他可能会让小肯尼迪在其政府中任职。
此前就有分析指出，小肯尼迪可能在本次大选中扮演“造王者”的角色。他虽然无法获得足够支持赢得大选，但是能在摇摆州获得足够支持，从而影响大选结果。据分析，小肯尼迪分走了更多特朗普的支持者，而不是民主党的支持者。